Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Stocks Bear Market Crash Towards New All Time Highs as QE3 End Awaits QE4 Start / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has once more confounded the crescendo of bearish market expectations of not even 2 weeks ago when the widespread assumption was that an end of U.S. QE would trigger the long anticipated bear market that had so far failed to materialise for some 5 1/2 years! But were promised that this time would be different, for this time the stock market most definitely had topped and was destined to embark on a severe bear market with figures such as Dow 6k being bandied about, with further assumptions the the bear market would likely would start with a destructive imminent crash.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
How to Recognize a Stock Market “Bear Raid” on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Gary_Dorsch
October has a reputation as a graveyard for many Bull markets, a reputation that was enshrined by the “Black Monday,” Crash in October 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrials plunged -22% in a single day. And then again in October 2008, the Dow plummeted -3,000-points from as high as 10,882 on Oct 1st to as low as 7,882 hit on Oct 10th. The Dow ended the brutal month of Oct 2008, with a loss of -2,675 points, or -14.1% for the month. The S&P-500 Index fared worse, with a -17% decline, - the worst since the -23% drop in October 1987. Paper losses in US-stocks came to $2.5-trillion for the month. Emerging markets suffered even more, shedding -29%.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
U.S. Midterm Elections: Would a Republican Win Be Bullish for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: John_Mauldin
I had an instant-messenger conversation with one of my clients the other day. It was pretty annoying—he wrote things like “BULL MARKET, DUDE,” and harangued me about my net-short positioning.
Then he started telling me that the market was going to rip if the Republicans took both houses of Congress in the midterm elections. At that point, I felt like I needed to intervene.
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Thursday, October 30, 2014
Stock Market S&P Index MAP Wave Analysis Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Marc_Horn
I have been looking for this for a while.
Over lunch at the Bank of England, Keynes tells Henry Clay of his hopes that Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ can help Britain out of the economic hole it is in: “I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.”11 April 1946
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Thursday, October 30, 2014
Stock Market Challenges the 50-day Averages / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Premarket SPX is down this morning. It had earlier challenged the 50-day Moving Average at 1957.40 and has since bounced from that level.
USD/JP attempted a huge spike this morning to ignite the market, but the response was muted, so USD/JPY reversed into the red.
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Thursday, October 30, 2014
Fed...See You Later QE...Hello Forever Low Rates...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
Wow. An interesting day. Really, really interesting. Why? Because the Fed Yellen took away QE, but did not promise more. Of course, that will change if the market falls hard over time. She'll use QE again only if there's an emergency. Her emergency is a falling stock market. Morgan Stanley (MS). Yellen also did what made the most sense of all. She once again promised to keep rates near or at zero "for a considerable period of time". That basically means until we see the economy truly recover, which also coincides with global economic situations away from home. China, Japan, and the entire Euro Zone, on some level, is struggling and she knows this has an adverse affect on our economy.
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Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Stock Market Bubble Goes Pop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Last night I noticed that SPX was near the lower trendline of its Ending Diagonal. A check back this morning shows the probe hit the Diagonal. This may not be good for the SPX.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
The Most Important Stock Market Chart on the Planet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
In this Weekend Report I want to shows you what I think is the most important chart on the planet right now. I know many of you won't agree with this statement because there are a lot of important charts out there that are talking to us right now. This just my opinion based on the most recent price action that this chart exhibited on the recent plunge in the month of October. The chart I'm referring to this the long term monthly chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Before we get to the present charts I would like to show you a Weekend Report from January 2013. The signs that a new Bull market in US Stocks was beginning were there, almost 2 years ago. Even I am surprised how this has evolved exactly as described. http://rambus1.com/?p=9469
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Monday, October 27, 2014
Gambling with Free Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Tom Naysburn writes: Financial and derivative trading is an interesting but violent game, full of love, fear, greed, loathing and ecstasy. There you go, I have owned up, and if your still wondering, it is emotional.
When I started in the City of London, apart from all the fun and learning, I was most impressed by a pervasive rule, that “your word was your bond”. Deals were done with counter parties who you may not have personally known, but when the phone went down and the ticket written up, you knew the deal was done. Your word was your bond, and by extension your firm’s word, was coveted at all costs. To rescind on a deal was infinitely more costly than the deal itself and consequently it did not happen. This principle of trust was honourable, good and tremendously impressive and was carried over into everyday dealings. It remains with me to this day.
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Monday, October 27, 2014
Stock Market Mixed Expectations Following Last Week's Bounce - Will Uptrend Extend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,975 and profit target at 1,875, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, October 27, 2014
Federal Reserve to Markets: You're Too Easy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: John_Rubino
As the end of the latest quantitative easing program approached, everyone was wondering if history would repeat in the form of a stock market correction that terrified the government into another round of debt monetization. And right on cue, volatility surged in late September, sending US stocks down by about 6% by mid-October.
Monday, October 27, 2014
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Intermediate correction (primary wave IV) underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, October 26, 2014
Stock Market Primary IV Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
One impressive rally this week! The week started off at SPX 1887. After a notable pullback to SPX 1882 the market rallied straight up to 1949 by Wednesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 1927 on Wednesday, the market rallied to 1965 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.35%, the NDX/NAZ gained 5.60%, and the DJ World index gained 3.10%. On the economic front things were not as rosy, as positive reports nudged out negative ones. On the uptick: existing home sales, the CPI, the FHFA index and leading indicators. On the downtick: new home sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is FOMC week! Plus we get reports on Q3 GDP, the PCE and the Chicago PMI.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Ebola Has Nothing To Do With The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Austin_Galt
The stock market recently experienced a big fall and a lot of this was attributed to the Ebola virus entering the United States for the first time. This is nonsense. Absolute nonsense! Ebola has nothing to do with the market. It is moves in the market that require a reason. Whatever reason we attribute to a market move is just something to make us feel all warm and fuzzy inside. This time it was Ebola's turn.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Stock Market Do Or Die Dead Ahead.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
When a market corrects hard there is only one normal way retrace the move back up to unwind oversold conditions and test lost 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. You take weeks to do it, and you do it slowly and gradually without any large gap ups. The S&P 500 now has three gap ups with two of them over a ten handle. Very unusual for a back test and makes you wonder just what's going on. It's basically almost a v bottom for now. On top of that we have MACD crosses on the daily-index charts from very low positions, which, of course, is far from a bearish set-up. With all of this I remain open. I thought for sure there would be another large, hard move lower in the market and that may very well still be the case.
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Saturday, October 25, 2014
Stock Market Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
I’ve been around a long time, through many economic and market cycles, and I don’t recall a time when the bull/bear debate had such strong arguments on both sides.
The bullish case:
· The economic recovery from the Great Recession continues.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market Fear and Panic Fractal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Late yesterday afternoon I wrote an email entitled “Panic Cycle Shift.” Make sure you read it if you haven’t yet done so.
Early in September I suggested that the market would have 43 “up days” followed by 43 “down days”. That is still correct. Remember that I am referring to calendar days. Now convert that to market days and the result is 30-31 trading days, depending on the placement of weekends and holidays.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market and Reality Disconnected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The behaviour of financial markets these days is frankly divorced from reality, with value-investing banished. Markets have become distorted by Rumfield-knowns such as interest rate policy and "market guidance", and Rumfield-unknowns such as undeclared market intervention by the authorities. On top of these distortions there is remote investing by computers programmed with algorithms and high-frequency traders, unable to make human value-assessments.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
US Stock Market Top Is Now In Sight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Dr. David J Harris writes: SUMMARY:
- In June, the DJIA index signaled that a significant US market top is near and will be reached in the next few weeks or months.
- In July, a new market timing model calculated that the market top is likely to occur in either, the last two weeks of July, a seven week window covering the last four weeks of October and first three weeks of November, or the four week window covering the last two weeks of December and first two weeks of January.
- Analysis of previous market tops and market bottoms shows that these windows of opportunity are close to 100% accurate.
- The market timing model determines that the resulting market drop is likely to be at least 12% and could be as much as 33%.
- Price projection analysis indicates that a rally is possible in late December and that the likelihood of a market top at year end is slightly greater than the likelihood of a market top in October or November.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Institutional Investors Fish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Large and/or institutional investors, your pension funds, your market funds, you name them, have one glaringly obvious and immense Achilles heel that they very much prefer not to talk about. That is, they MUST invest their funds, in something, anything, they can’t NOT invest. They are trapped in the game. They have to roll over debt, investments, all the time.
In today’s markets, they can move into Treasuries, as we see bond funds (and undoubtedly others) do recently, and while that’s already a sign of unrest in the ranks, at the same time it exposes the funds. And not only because everyone knows it won’t allow them to meet the targets they must meet. Oil, gas and gold are unattractive alternatives.
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