Category: Stock Markets 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, May 24, 2010
Stock Market Continued Bearish Action / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I tried to think of what else there was to say but horrific summed it up best, I thought. Clearly, we are in a down trending market. I don't think anyone would argue with that premise. If you do argue it, I feel sure that you're totally wasting your energy. With a clean break below the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages and with some indexes below their 200-day exponential moving average, what good is there to say about things. Nothing if we're all honest about things.
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Monday, May 24, 2010
Stock Market Bounce Should Be Short-Lived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Last week's bottom line can be summarized quite simply: There's a lot of serious chart damage out there! We certainly can look forward to a bounce -- and that could be 7 hours or 7 days -- which repairs or recovers some of the damage from last week. However, my sense is that the bounce will be fleeting and followed by another downleg.
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Monday, May 24, 2010
Will Extreme Market Volatility Actually Stabilize the Markets? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks tumbled across the board last week like a pair of dice rumbling around a craps table, rocked by extreme volatility. Just when it looked like they were rolling up the unnerving loss of the critical 200-day average on Thursday, bulls' returned to the fray and pushed the major indexes just barely back into safe territory.
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Monday, May 24, 2010
Stocks Medium-term Bull Market May Have Started An Intermediate-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when
expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014.
SPX: Long-term trend - Up! We are in a medium-term bull market, which is a corrective move within a long term bear market. This bull market should last until 2011
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Monday, May 24, 2010
Robert Prechter's Stock Market Elliott Wave Cycle Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The August 2009 issue listed the range for typical retracement as being from 9368 to 11,620. This is a wide range, but there is nothing we can do about it; second waves have a lot of leeway. The illustration shown in that issue is reproduced below alongside an update of market prices. The Dow has so far stayed within the normal range."
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
MortiES Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast, Bulls Bank Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A Wave 4 is described as a Profit-Taking Wave. It is not so much that the Bears are getting stronger as the Bulls are taking profits off the table as they see them eroding. The mini-crash on 6May may not have been real in the eyes of many, but it did technical damage to the market. The emotions of traders are seen in the market as fear and greed have their way. That is also why I said in my post on 6May that the low of that day would be taken out, even though the massive rebound made many think it was just an anomaly. That low (1056) was broken Friday as ES dipped to 1051.25.
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: It Would Be Better If... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
It would be better if prices on all of the major indices: 1) decisively broke their 200 day moving averages; 2) closed below weekly support levels; and 3) closed below the February, 2010 lows. It would be better if the prior week's pullback, which morphed into this week's "correction", actually caused investors to utter the "b" word -- as in bear market. It would be better if investors had their spirit's broken as investor sentiment actually turned bearish (i.e., bull signal).
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Saturday, May 22, 2010
Stock Market Trend Decisively Broken, Major Correction OR Downward Bearish Trend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Plan A is in effect for retail investors – remain in cash until the trend reestablishes itself. The big question now is whether we have “merely” a major correction OR the beginning of a downward bearish trend.
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Saturday, May 22, 2010
Think Stock Market Correction Is Over? Roubini Sees 20% More Downside / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Investors are tempted back into the market after a nearly 4% sell-off on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop since April 2009, leaving stocks at more reasonable valuations. Meanwhile, Germany's parliament approved a bailout bill for Greece and other euro zone nations burdened with high debt loads also helped ease worries about sovereign debt.
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Saturday, May 22, 2010
Severely Oversold Stock Market Offers Up A Rally... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The market gapped down big again this morning and the bears tried to follow through on the break below the 200-day exponential moving averages that went away at the close yesterday. They felt sure they had the bulls buried and who could blame them for feeling good about things. However, I sent out an early note telling everyone not to short the move lower as the market was extremely oversold and that shorting wouldn't bring about much satisfaction.
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Saturday, May 22, 2010
Stock Market Indices Finish Strong! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a very strong finish to the day to close positive on the session. The day started out very differently, however. The futures were lower, and the market gapped down at the opening and plunged early to new pullback lows, even taking out the May 6 flash crash lows on the S&P 500 by about 10 points.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Stock Market Buy the Dip or Sell into any Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
When institutional investors, corporate insiders, professional investors, and hedge funds become concerned that the market has become overbought or over-valued and due for a correction they tend to sell early, making sure they will be selling into still rising prices. In fact, as their selling progresses it usually is the catalyst that causes the market to soon run out of steam and turn down even though others are still buying.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 21, 2010
Surge in Strategic Defaults Threatens U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Don Miller writes: A growing number of homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their property is worth are opting for "strategic default," which means walking away from their homes, even though they can afford to make their monthly payment.
If the trend accelerates, it could put more empty houses on a market that's already overburdened with vacancies and snuff out any recovery in the moribund housing market.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Stock Market Brief / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Due to lower highs and lower lows on both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports there is now a change of trend in existence in the markets. How low this correction will continue no one can be sure. A bounce can be expected at any time due to the fact that the market is terribly oversold based on Stochastics and the McClennan Summation Index.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Stock Market Reversal Levels Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Following the May 10, 2010 Market Minute titled "Is the correction finished?", models are indicated that levels have only now been reached where major market reversals often occur. Chart 1 illustrates only 9.5% of the stocks on the NYSE are currently trading above their short-term 50-day moving averages. This percentage level is the same as on March 2009.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Stock Market Historic Setback! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices suffered a historic setback today in terms of the technicals, and in terms of points it was quite nasty as well. There was a huge gap down at the opening, followed by a short consolidation, which was followed by more selling. It did bounce in the morning, but then made lower lows and reached the session lows on the Nasdaq 100 during the lunch hour. At that point they had a strong 3-wave rally back, but failed at secondary resistance at 1840 on the NDX and 1095 on the S&P 500.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Stock Market Collapse....200's Gone... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
For now, all we can do is judge the market by the message it sends. The message it sent today was bearish. No other way to say it. No other way to spin it. A plethora of sectors and stocks were in nasty bear markets before today, but after today we can add the S&P 500 to that list with the reality that the Dow and Nasdaq are close. Both are now under their 200-day exponential moving average, but only by 1%, while the S&P 500 is below by 3%, which is far more confirming. The WLSH 5000 also fell below the 200-day exponential moving average today and this has, like it says, 5000 stocks, thus it's very broad based.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Economic Unraveling Has Started, Dow Theory Stock Market Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I’m not sure where this will all end, but today we saw a Dow Theory sell signal.
If you look closely at the chart below (courtesy Bigcharts.com) you will see that volumes have been creeping up since the 1000 point fall the week before last. When prices fall on rising volume that is evidence of selling pressure
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Stock Market Thursday Thump, Economic Depression Sets In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What a difference a title makes!
Yesterday, I titled my morning post "WTF Wednesday?" and I had, at 5:36 am, already sent out a major Alert (rare thing to do) in which we discussed Raoul Pal’s statement that a major crash is coming in 2 days to 2 weeks, to which I said: "I think it’s insane not to be mainly in cash right now and hedged for at least a 40% drop. If the guy’s wrong - our buy/writes pay "just" 20% and if he’s right, then we get to DD at good prices with the profits from our Disaster Hedges!" As I’m not one to ignore a great opportunity to profit from catastrophe, we added 3 more hedges that pay 1,000% if the market does tank in the next few weeks, or days (using DIA, FAZ and TZA).
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Will the S&P Test "Flash Crash" Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Yesterday, when I wrote about my perceptions of what would create "crash-event" (panic) conditions in the emini S&P 500 (e-SPM) -- a sustained break of 1056, followed by a breach of 1036 -- the e-SPM was trading at 1108. Already today, the e-SPM has pressed beneath my "orthodox low" at 1090.75 from 5/07 to a new reaction low at 1074.50, off of the April high 1216.75 (-11.7%). We can see from the enclosed daily chart that 1074.50 does not represent any particular technical significance (support) other than the fact that if the index did not continue to the downside from there then perhaps a condition of near-term bearish exhaustion has set in.
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