Category: Stock Markets 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, August 07, 2010
Stock Market No One Has Control....Strong Finish For The Bulls... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
No one has control but you have to give a little nod to the bulls today for hanging in where they had to at the down trend line at S&P 500 1110. A small breach below and then a nice rocket ride back up. You're always looking for something that tells you someone is taking control. With the market at that down trend line, it was step up time for one side to take command, and for the day, the bulls did. However, no one is in control since all we're really doing is continuing to trade in a range between 1080 and 1131. Until this range is taken out with force one way or the other, there really isn't all that much to do except try to find the best set-ups and play them.
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Saturday, August 07, 2010
Stock Market Pullback Near 200-Day Not A Given / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The bulls lounge was nearly empty when we published Stocks May Surprise By Year-End on July 2, 2010. The S&P 500 was standing at 1,022, bears were out in full force, and talk of a move toward 850 on the S&P 500 was common. As we awake today, the S&P 500 stands 11.50% above the intraday low made on July 2, 2010. With the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all above their respective 200-day moving averages (see Hedge Funds Care About 200-Day), the question now becomes should you wait for a bullback before putting any new cash to work?
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Saturday, August 07, 2010
Stock Market Investors Are Becoming More Knowledgeable! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
It’s quite discouraging to look at the historical performance of public investors.
For instance, the most recent annual study by research firm Dalbar Inc. shows that over the 20-year period ended December 31, 2009, the S&P 500 Index gained an average of 8.2%, but the average equity investor had an average annual return of only 3.2%. Of course, the word ‘average’ is very misleading. Over that 20-year period the S&P 500 was up as much as 50% in individual years, down as much as 40% in others, providing ample opportunity for market-timing strategies to buy low and sell high, and so not only match but outperform the index.
Friday, August 06, 2010
A Closer look at the Stock Market, XAU Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Market technicians sometimes let their imaginations carry them away. Because of the dry, tedious nature of the business, they sometimes exaggerate the importance of a technical signal by drawing to attention to what would otherwise be a non-event.Take for instance the simple moving average crossover. This rather pedestrian occurrence can be seen whenever the rolling price average of a stock or market index crosses above or below a moving average of longer duration. When the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500 Index crossed under the widely followed 200-day MA, market technicians the world over had a field day.
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Friday, August 06, 2010
Strong Second Quarter Earnings Can’t Keep the Stock Market Bears at Bay / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: The second-quarter earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, but it's been no match for bears who are less than thrilled with future earnings prospects.
More than half of the companies on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have reported second-quarter earnings results. And so far, they've been strong, with two-thirds of those companies beating earnings estimates, three-fifths beating on sales and almost half beating on both earnings and sales.
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Friday, August 06, 2010
The Hidden Potential of Learning How to Trade SP500 & Gold Options / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Market technicians believe they operate in a world that few people truly understand. It is as if they believe they are working in some sort of secretive financial construct that only a few lucky souls away from Wall Street can access. The truth is that technical analysis should only be used as one metric to help a trader navigate financial markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 06, 2010
Stock Market Nominal Losses in 4th Consecutive Consolidation Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a vacillating-type, consolidation day, as the four-day sideways move continued today. Although they closed down a little bit today, the path was different.
They opened sharply lower, bounced back quickly and then rolled over. The Nasdaq 100 made new lows for the day, but the S&P 500 did not, which set up a positive divergence. That caused a 3-wave rally, bringing the NDX back from 1892 to 1908 in the afternoon. The SPX at that point rallied from 1119 1/2 to 1126 1/2. They rolled over in the last half hour, but in the last 5- minutes snapped back again to pare the losses.
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Thursday, August 05, 2010
Stock Market Bulls Remain In Control... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Thursday, August 05, 2010
Stock Market Through the Roof or Smashed into a Thousand Pieces? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
GRANDPA JOE: But this roof is made of glass. It’ll shatter into a thousand pieces. We’ll be cut to ribbons!
WILLY WONKA: Probably.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Stocks Tread Water as Non Farm Payrolls Beckon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. equities rallied and fixed income sold off upon hump day on the back of a surprisingly solid July non-manufacturing ISM release quelling some of the concerns that the economy is slowing and some good earnings from Time Warner and Polo , this all despite a Bloomberg News reported that China told lenders to conduct a new round of more stringent stress tests to gauge the effects of a deeper real-estate slump.
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Thursday, August 05, 2010
Stock Market Breakout Oh So Close... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
We can all taste it, can't we?
The market was so interesting today. The day started out with a gap up, then the non-manufacturing report came out with good news, and the market flew higher. We got to 1127 on the S&P 500, but then a very powerful sell program hit, and knocked the Nasdaq from up 17 to slightly red in a matter of moments. It looked bad, but once the market went slightly red, it started to churn. It refused to just quit. That gave the market some real hope.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Stock Market Which Way Wednesday - On the 50% Line - Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Wow, what a ride!Here we are back on the 50% retracement line at 1,121 on the S&P. As Barry Ritholtz points out, it’s the 5th time we’ve been here and, as I said yesterday, Barry says "Its going to take a lot of something — good earnings, liquidity, sentiment, breadth, momentum, psychology, quantitative easing, something – to move higher from here." Also great on Barry’s site today is a very neat summation of the housing crisis and his take on Timmy G’s NY Times Op Ed column, which I need to add my own .02 to.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Stock Market Head Fake? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Was S&P 1011 The Stock Market Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The SP 500 had a very interesting Fibonacci Intersection as I call it here at TheMarketTrendForecast.com on July 1st. At the 1011 pivot low, the index re-traced a Fibonacci 38% of the 2010 highs from the 2009 lows and bottomed out. In addition, the 1011 pivot was a 38% upward re-tracement of the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. How is it that markets can be considered “random” when in fact they often pivot at clearly defined Fibonacci price points?
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Analog Comparisons Show Trouble Brewing For Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As anticipated, last Friday, which marked options expiry for July, witnessed a down day in stocks, which in fact turned out to be a 90% down day. In a bull market this would not occur, as the trend would be up, so one must conclude Friday’s 90% down day on increasing volume is a negative omen even though it was not re-enforced by follow-through yesterday. Of course in order to establish the short-term trend as being down, stocks need to continue falling, this, along with taking out what could be considered a new neckline in the S&P 500 (SPX) head and shoulders pattern (now slanted) at 1015 to be considered confirmation this is in fact the case. Seasonally this is the weakest week in July and is most often down, so it will be interesting to see where we end up.
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Profit Taking Hits European Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks rallied hard Monday, sending the S&P 500 to the highest close in 10 weeks, after better than estimated earnings at companies from Humana to Allergan. US manufacturing data that topped forecast and speculation that the Federal Reserve may be about to embark on more QE. Alcoa rose 4.8%, to help lead gains in commodity shares. Oil climbed above $81 for the first time since May, giving a boost to energy companies. Humana, the biggest provider of U.S.backed health benefits, and Allergan, the maker of the Botox wrinkle smoother, rallied at least 3.6% while Intel gained 2.7% as a trade group said global chip sales were “robust.”
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Quantitative Easing May Change Stock Market Dynamics / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
After reading James Bullard’s twenty-three page paper on possible monetary responses to further economic shocks, we feel it is important for investors to gain a basic understanding of how future Fed policy could impact the value of an individual’s savings and other financial assets. The basic premise of Mr. Bullard’s work is as follows:
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Stock Market Good News Trumps Pessimists... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
What To Do After Monday’s Stock Market Gap Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The S&P 500 closed at 1101 on Friday and 3 minutes into the open Monday it is at 1116! Then we INSTANTLY backed off up to the ISM number and on that news we got an instant knee jerk to you guessed it to the 1120ish level and ended up closing at just shy of 1126.
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Stock Market 1131 S&P 500 Getting Closer... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
close today at S&P 500 1125 has the bulls feeling good about things, and why not. Just a few days ago they were feeling the heat as the market closed in on losing 1080, or critical down trend line support. Think about it folks. Weren't most of you who are bullish feeling pretty badly late last week? Didn't things seem dire? You know they did! Now, we can all go sleep tonight with the S&P 500 just 6 points away from getting back to the last highs at 1131. Things certainly do change fast in this crazy insane game.
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