Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Inter-Market Relationships That Are Driving The Stock Market And Commodities / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Toby_Connor
This will be a quick post today illustrating what I expect over the next 2 years, and the inter-market relationship between the currency markets, CRB and stocks.
Pay particular attention to the inverse relationship between the dollar index and the CRB; notice how the CRB almost immediately began moving down into its three year cycle low once the dollar formed it's three year cycle bottom in May 2011.
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Friday, August 10, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Looming? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
With the US stock markets challenging a major multi-year high, investors are feeling pretty complacent these days. But unseen below the placid surface, a serious risk is arising from the depths. With each passing day, the odds grow that a new stock bear is imminent. As these merciless beasts typically maul the markets until stock prices are cut in half, they are dangerous threats that cannot be taken lightly.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Submissions
Kerry Balenthiran writes: "You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time."
The above quote from Shelby Cullom Davis is particularly applicable to stock markets at present, bear markets inevitably lead to investors losing faith with the stock market. However, as values stagnate prices become better value, providing that earnings are increasing. As a long term investor, providing that we have cash to put to work, the ability to buy good quality stocks cheaply should be welcomed. The reality though is that investors in the stock market, just like homeowners, prefer prices to go up after they have bought as this confirms that they made a good decision in buying.
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Monday, July 09, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Yet again, Another Bull Trap in the Making / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
The extraordinary end of month move up in the prices of currencies, oil, gold, copper and equities on June 29th, should be a warning to all of the financial markets’ propensity for large and highly volatile short term moves. Moves facilitated by hedge funds using similar trading tools all making similar trading decisions at the same time. In this case it appeared to be initiated by rather intense end of quarter short covering exacerbated by a rather over-hyped prop-up style financial agreement in Euroland. Timing of this agreement just could not have been better, with very little media coverage at the time pointing out the insignificance of the amounts of money involved in bank support agreements, compared to the trillions of dollars at risk associated with a deteriorating world economy. My earlier discussion on end of month trading shenanigans by the hedge funds in my last commentary on June 4th, was certainly well timed.
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Sunday, July 01, 2012
Stocks Secular Bear Market Investing / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
It's been almost a decade since I co-authored with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research some research in this letter that later became chapters five and six of Bull's Eye Investing. Although the ten-year anniversary of the book is actually 2013, the current vulnerabilities in the markets encouraged us to revisit the material a bit early, to prepare you for what lies ahead. Reflecting back to yesteryear gives us the opportunity to assess the accuracy of our insights.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Stock Market Bearish Monthly RSI Divergence 100% Accuracy Rate; Occurred at 91.6% of Market Tops / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Steven_Vincent
Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely recognized and followed technical indicators. The most common use of RSI is the identification of divergences:
Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements...According to Wilder, divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not confirm price. A bullish divergence occurs when the underlying security makes a lower low and RSI forms a higher low. RSI does not confirm the lower low and this shows strengthening momentum. A bearish divergence forms when the security records a higher high and RSI forms a lower high. RSI does not confirm the new high and this shows weakening momentum. StockCharts.com
Monday, June 04, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Diary of a Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
US share indices have been until recently sitting at highs not seen since 2007/2008, while the world was and still is experiencing an economic meltdown with no end in sight. Where did the bulls think the market would go to from these levels? What were they thinking – that we live in a world where the law of gravity can be defied and bull markets will keep on rising forever? What sort of world do they think this is? It is just this type of thinking that makes Bull traps what they are – traps for those that feed off fantasies.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap confirmed – Six weeks is a long time for a Banker / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Recent ““errors, sloppiness and bad judgment” by JP Morgan have shown the world that the D-Word genie, after sleeping off its last travail into an “unsuspecting” financial world has escaped again, to wreak havoc on our loving and ever too trusting bankers. Of course this begs the obvious question – if the highly technically advantaged JP Morgan can stuff up their dealings with derivatives so easily, surely this can happen to others as well – which beggars the question of who shall be next? The very nature of greed combined with huge amounts of cheap money, the continuing lack of open and honest disclosure and targeted and effective regulation, means that it is only a matter of time before history repeats itself. And as long as governments lack the will to enforce these measures, you can be sure that bankers will continue to find ways to persevere with their high risk ways.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap confirmed – Following the leaders / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Bull Traps at major market peaks are defined by failed upside breakouts. These short lived breakouts usually coincide with unrealistic and often delusional and ill-informed expectations of the future – hence the name. It is no accident that these emotional times also coincide with peak optimism and volume, not necessarily for the markets as a whole, but certainly for the market leaders. In this case it’s Apple.
And if this is really THE BULL TRAP pertaining to the peak of the current three year market top in equities and commodity prices, then price falls morphing into a full scale breakdown and a continuation of the bear market that more or less started in 2000, may become the new reality.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap warning – Precious Metals, the first casualty / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Gold has always been a bit of a conundrum for me as I am never quite sure how this yellow metal should be classified. According to Geology.com, “Of all the minerals mined from the Earth, none is more useful than gold. Its usefulness is derived from a diversity of special properties. Gold conducts electricity, does not tarnish, is very easy to work, can be drawn into wire, can be hammered into thin sheets, alloys with many other metals, can be melted and cast into highly detailed shapes, has a wonderful colour and a brilliant lustre. Gold is a memorable metal that occupies a special place in the human mind.”Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap Warning / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Metal prices – A robot canary in the economic coal mine
Relative weakness in industrial metal prices can be a further sign of how the unravelling of the world’s major consuming economies can have a negative feedback effect on all countries down the supply chain. This includes countries supplying raw materials, through to low wage countries in the manufacturing sector – all of whom are at the mercy of market forces, corporate and government corruption and greed. Fear and greed are the mind killers. There is still plenty of greed left in the system and fear is just round the corner. Just ask the nouveau riche exporting their billions in cash out of China into Hong Kong and elsewhere. They know what’s coming and are preparing for their day of reckoning.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Bull Trap Warning in equities still holds / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Two months ago in my last posting, I warned of an impending Bull Trap in equities. As the hedge funds do their ‘thing’ during this week of expiring options, we see as in previous times, how easily they can create at will, short sharp rises in selected equities, that somehow seem to magically materialise from nowhere and often end up actually going nowhere. These are just the market plays of yet another market Bull Trap.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Complacency Morphs into a Bull Trap – It’s that time again / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Like it or not, we are still in an equity bear market rally. In its maturing phase it is ditinguished by six month old upward wedges in key indexes and stocks all quietly edging up into their apexes on declining volume. This is also a time when you would expect to see signs of bullish expectations remerging from the earlier seas of despair. Last week it was an email from an excited technical analysis based equity market newsletter announcing to all, that there are and I quote . . . . “ ‘70 Stocks poised to make Big Moves’, Tuesday's Q1 Stock Picking Session turned into a Stock Picking. Love Fest! Xxx xxxxxx discussed 70 stock trading candidates of all shapes and sizes, along with the reasons WHY they could make big moves”. The date of this email was February 9th 2012. There was also the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment illustrated below. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Stock Market Counter-Trend Moves Continue to Spark False Hopes / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Tim_Wood
The bearish Dow theory primary trend change that occurred in August remains intact. As price moved into that low, and the October low that followed, bearish sentiment was at levels not seen since 2008. However, I said then, in articles written here, that not all Dow theory trend changes were created equally. I explained that rather than a meltdown, my work was suggestive of a low and that higher prices would follow. This has all proven correct. I also said then that this was all part of a much larger trap for both the bull and bear alike. In light of the volatility seen following the August/October lows, this has been proven correct as well. But, I also continue to believe that there is still a trap being set on an even larger scale, which has yet to be proven correct. What I mean is, the higher the rally out of the August/October low has gone, the more comfortable the masses have become with the rally. We are now seeing a sense of optimism and people have by and large forgotten about the pain and fear they experienced into October. All the while, they do not realize that its all really part of a bigger setup.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Why You Should be Leery of Improving Stock Market Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: The bear market is doing an excellent job with investors’ attitude towards the stock market. We can see it in the market’s performance…
So far this year, the S&P 500 has gained 4.6%—its best January start in 15 years! Market sentiment—how investors feel about the stock market—has shown a marked improvement.
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Now More Bearish on the Stock Market Than 2007 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Paul_Lamont
While we were Hyper Bearish expecting an Asset Fire Sale in late 2007, we are more bearish now than at anytime in 2007 and 2008. Here is why...
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Complacency Still Rules and China Stalls / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
It’s my view that the reluctance to believe you are in a prolonged bear market slowly decreases over time until the final bottom is reached and closure is realised. The recent sharp 52%fall in the Baltic Dry Index, together with the low levels currently experienced by the $VIX and the ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 ETF (SDS) and the comparative high levels of the equity markets, clearly show that complacency is still well entrenched in the market place. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
Deadly Dow 36,000 & The Secret History Of A 70% Stock Market Loss / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Dan_Amerman
Some nvestors fear that the Dow may go to 4,000 or 5,000. Surely that would be bad, but there is a worse possibility to consider, which is that the Dow could go to 36,000 instead. Now, Dow 36,000 may sound like a "problem" that most investors would love to have! So what's the danger?
Friday, January 06, 2012
Stock Market Rally Party May Be Over! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Toby_Connor
About it every 35 to 40 days we get a major profit-taking event occur in the stock market. In bull markets that's all it is, a profit-taking event. In a bear market it is a resumption of the cyclical downtrend triggered by deteriorating fundamentals. It still remains to be seen whether or not stocks have rolled over into another cyclical bear market.
Thursday, January 05, 2012
DOW hits historical Primary II B wave rally retracement range / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Tony_Caldaro
On October 22nd we posted this analysis of Major B waves, during Primary II, once the 61.8% retracement level was exceeded: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/10/22/weekend-update-315/. It is at the beginning of the report.
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