Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, July 27, 2012
Will US GDP Numbers Lead to QE3? / Economics / US Economy
By: GoldCore
Today's AM fix was USD 1,618.75, EUR 1,321.43, and GBP 1,031.51 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,603.00, EUR 1,321.74and GBP 1,034.26 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $27.79/oz, €22.65/oz and £17.74/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,420.70/oz, palladium at $571.75/oz and rhodium at $1,150/oz.
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Thursday, July 26, 2012
America’s Competitive Spirit Driving Global Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
One of the few things that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney can agree on is that our economy is still struggling to regain its strength. Stubborn unemployment and sluggish growth at home combined with a slowing China and a dysfunctional eurozone have cast a dark shadow on America’s eternal optimism. The media favors negative news and the 24/7 cycle of gloom and doubt can be dispiriting.
We are always looking for the economic points of light around the globe and strive to provide a counterpoint to the pervasive pessimism. As Warren Buffett once said, “It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but it’s not always a smooth ride.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Manufacturing Returning To U.S.? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
There are increasing reports of repatriation of manufacturing to the U.S. from China and other low cost producer nations where product transportation costs are high, and where in some cases for 'high end products' (some furniture products for example) quality is seen to be better for 'made in America' products. That said:
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Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Encouraging Data Buried in Otherwise Gloomy Economic News / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European debt crisis continues to make headline news with Spanish and Italian government bond yields marking new post summit highs. These events have intensified the downside risks of economic growth in the United States in the quarters ahead. Buried in the sea of glum economic headlines, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to -0.15 in June from -0.48 in May. This index has a reputation of identifying turning points of economic activity in the United States.
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Thursday, July 19, 2012
There is a Hole in the U.S. Economy, Economic Growth Could be Slashed By 71% / Economics / US Economy
By: Dan_Amerman
Everything from the ability to pay for Social Security, to projected federal deficits, to retirement planning and stock market valuations is based upon assumptions that the United States and other nations will emerge from crisis and return to "normal" long-term growth rates.
What happens if we don't return to those growth rates?
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012
U.S. Labor Market and Sales News Remains Unsatisfactory / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
There were 3.642 million job openings in May according to the job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTS), which lags the employment report by one month. The job openings rate (number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings) moved up slightly to 2.7% in May from 2.5% in April, but matches the rate seen in March. The hiring rate (number of hires during the entire month as a percentage of total employment) at 3.3% in May has held at this level in three out of first five months of the year. Essentially, the report confirms the message from the employment report of sluggish labor market conditions.
Monday, July 09, 2012
Barack Obama's Presidency Economic Report Card – Fail / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
We are now three and one half years into Barack Obama's presidency. I thought a few pertinent charts would help us assess the success of his economic policies. Upon his election he demanded an $800 billion stimulus package in order to keep the unemployment rate from surpassing 8%. The $800 billion was to be spent over two years we were told and then government spending would be scaled back to pre-stimulus levels. There were 145 million Americans employed when Obama was elected. There are 9 million more working age Americans today than there were in 2008. There are now 142.4 million employed Americans. So, we've added 9 million potential workers and still have 2.6 less Americans employed. We have the same number of Americans employed as we did in early 2006, when there were 17 million less working age Americans.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Can the U.S Economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
As the Eurozone teeters on the edge of a breakup, it begs the question: Can the U.S economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone debt crisis?
Ultimately, the answer comes down to fate of the euro. It's the linchpin to everything.
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Friday, June 29, 2012
U.S. Economy Real GDP Composition Modified, Though Q1 Headline Remains Unchanged / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Although the headline was not changed, contributions of several components were modified. Consumer spending (+2.5% vs. +2.7% previous estimate), equipment and software (+3.5% vs. +3.9% previous estimate), exports (+4.2% vs. +7.2% prior estimate), inventories, and imports (+2.7% vs. +6.1% prior estimate) were revised down. Residential investment expenditures (+20% vs. +19.4% prior estimate) and structures (+1.9% vs. -3.3% prior estimate) were raised. In addition to the upward revisions, a smaller trade gap also helped to offset the downward revisions and leave the headline unchanged. There were upwards of each of the inflation measures.
Friday, June 29, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
This week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible either, right? I mean 2% growth amid outright contraction in Europe is good. Perhaps the US has finally decoupled?
You don't need an economics degree (trust me on that one) to look underneath the hood and see that this "unchanged revision" was actually indicative of something more sinister. That the US economy is not only in trouble but is clearly "coupled."
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Thursday, June 21, 2012
Fed Downgrades U.S. Economic Outlook and Buys Insurance / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Of the Fed's three options available today (do nothing, engage in QE3, extend Operation Twist), it has chosen the diplomatic route. It appears the Fed was concerned that if it took the path of using only language to indicate support it could rock a fragile global financial system. Given that emergency aid could not be justified, QE3 was out of the question at the present time. The Fed has chosen an extension of Operation Twist as it provides insurance and has fewer avenues of criticism. The Fed indicated that an extension of maturities of its Treasury security holdings will not expire as of June but will remain in place until the end of 2012. The expectation is that this action would exert downward pressure on long term interest rates.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
U.S. Economy Flirting with Disaster / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I offer a main course, a veritable piece de resistance, for Outside the Box readers, from my friend Rich Yamarone. Rich is Chief Economist for Bloomberg and one really sharp talent. He helps write Bloomberg Brief: Economics, a daily notebook that comes out every business morning with an all-encompassing view of what's happening and will happen.
I have been on stage with him several times recently and have spent even more time with him over dinners. He keeps reminding me to pay attention to the slow-motion slowdown and eventual (he says) recession that is coming right here to the US. He thinks ten-year bond rates could scare 0.5% (not a typo!) if/when both Europe and China have a simultaneous crisis and the US is seen as a real –and perhaps the last – safe haven (to which I would add: besides gold). Certainly 1% on the ten-year and 2% on the 30-year will be on offer in such a scenario.
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Saturday, June 02, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery Reality Bites / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Many people became convinced that data releases earlier this year indicated that "recovery" in the U.S. was imminent. But as I have been saying for months, this evidence would ultimately be shown to be as reliable as sightings of Bigfoot. Lots of people claim to say they have seen it, some even produce plaster footprints, but in the end all we have is a guy in an ape suit. The economic recovery, that has been discussed so loudly and often in recent months, will be shown to be similarly mythical.
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Thursday, May 31, 2012
US Unemployment and the Ubiquitous 'Zombie Job' Market / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
Yesterday was Memorial Day. We said a prayer for all the brave men and women who died in war…after all, we have a heart!
But the brain never quite gets in sync. When it looks at what those soldiers were doing, it wishes they had never left home. America’s wars were almost all ‘wars of choice,’ says a friend. “They were fought to expand the power of the empire. The Mexican-American war was a bald-faced grab for Mexican land. The ‘Civil War’ was a battle to bring the South into submission. The US took Puerto Rico and the Philippines in the Spanish American war. President Wilson took the US into WWI simply to throw our weight around in Europe; we had no dog in that fight. He botched up the peace so badly that the Europeans went to war again 20 years later to sort it out. That was a war – WWII in Europe – that the US didn’t have to get involved in either.
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Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Labor Market Issues Hold Down U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in May / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped in May to 64.8 from 68.7 in the prior month. The sub-components of the index measuring the present situation (45.9 vs. 51.2 in April) and expectations of consumers (77.6 vs. 80.4 in April) declined in May. The current level of the Consumer Confidence Index is back to the mark seen in December. The Conference Board’s index is running counter to the improvement of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (79.3 vs. 76.3 in April). Labor market indicators play a big role in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index compared with the University of Michigan consumer optimism gauge.
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Friday, May 11, 2012
U.S. Trade, Initial Jobless Claims – Mixed Signals / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $51.83 billion in March from $45.42 billion in the prior month. Exports (+2.9%) and imports (+5.2%) of goods and services both advanced in March, but imports outpaced exports. After adjusting for inflation, the goods trade gap increased to $48.9 billion during March from $44.1 billion in the previous month. A large part of the widening of the trade gap was from the non-petroleum component with oil imports accounting for the relatively smaller share. Capital goods excluding autos (+7.8%), autos (+4.8%), and consumer spending excluding autos (+7.8%) were thelarge components of imports. Exports of capital goods excluding autos rose 2.7% in March.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2012
U.S. Consumers Still Key to Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
What I like most about Gary Shilling's economic analysis is that it's thorough.In the piece that follows – an excerpt from Gary's monthly INSIGHT – he ranges from the importance of US consumer spending and the unemployment rate, to the actions of the Fed, to business cost cutting and productivity, to the housing crisis and household debt, to state and local government fiscal issues, to US exports– Etc.! So by time he gets ready to deliver conclusions, you know they're well-supported. And Gary's overall conclusion here, regarding the rest of 2012, is a strong one and maybe not quite what you'd expect.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
U.S. GDP Miss Far Bigger Than Announced, Real GDP is 0% / Housing-Market / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.2%, down from 3.0% in the previous quarter, and below most mainstream media estimates of 2.5%.
However, my friend BC notes ....
The GDP deflator is reported to have averaged 1.2% annualized in the past 2 qtrs. Had the trend rate from '11 persisted, the deflator would have subtracted 2.6% annualized from real GDP, resulting in a 2-qtr. growth of real GDP of 0%.
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Saturday, April 28, 2012
U.S. Q1 2012 GDP Sends Mixed Message / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The US economy expanded 2.2% in Q1 2012 versus 3% in Q4 2011 based on the first of three GDP estimates. Forecasts were for 2.5% growth with "whisper" numbers in the 3% range. As always on the surface this appears OK although one can easily argue this far into a "recovery" the economy should be growing at a faster pace. In fact the economy is closer to "stall speed" versus "escape velocity."
Friday, April 27, 2012
U.S. Economy Having Difficulty Gaining Traction According to PIMCO's El-Erian / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu spoke with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, who said that the Federal Reserve is likely to provide additional assistance if the economy weakens further, but there is "no immediate need" to do so.
El-Erian also said that the U.S economy needs to add 250,000 to 300,000 jobs every month if we are to "seriously start reducing unemployment to something that is acceptable," but that "the labor market is cooling off and doing so too early."
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