Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, November 06, 2019
These Indicators Aren’t Putting to an Economic Resurgence / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
When David Stockman spoke at our IES conference in October, he had a whole slew of charts that showed that the main street economy had nothing to do with the Wall Street one – and that there were more signs of weakening growth than strengthening.He recently showed some updates and these were the two that most caught my eye. Both of these are from the more cyclical sectors that most often cause recessions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 31, 2019
BEA Reports US Economy Grew by 1.93% GDP Q3 2019 / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2019, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +1.93% annual rate, down -0.08 percentage points (pp) from the prior quarter.
The minor change in the headline masked a material weakening in the growth of consumer spending. The growth rate for aggregate consumer spending on goods and services was reported to be over 1% lower (-1.10pp) than in the prior quarter. The growth of governmental spending (Federal, state and local) also weakened by about half of that amount. But largely offsetting those negative impacts on the headline number were soaring inventories and exports.
Annualized household disposable income was reported to be $253 higher than in the prior quarter, and the household savings rate was reported to be 8.1%, up 0.1pp from the prior quarter.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
To Fix the Economy, Fix Healthcare / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
If you are American and you have health insurance, you probably get it from either your employer or some kind of government program. Or possibly both, if the government is your employer.
Almost no one in the US gets health insurance on their own. We can’t afford to buy it and insurers can’t afford to sell it, thanks to our crazy patchwork system. As a result, people fall through the gaps and millions remain uninsured.
Even many who are insured might as well not be, since exorbitant deductibles leave them practically uncovered.
Monday, September 09, 2019
Don't Worry About a Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Everyone seems to be wringing their hands about what they fear is an oncoming recession. Indeed, as a sign of the level of the public’s angst, The Economist magazine reports that Google searches related to the word “recession” have surged.
If that wasn’t enough evidence of the hand wringing, the Chairman of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, the respected Tomas Philipson, recently indicated that he was worried about the steady negative drumbeat in the press: that a recession might be just around the corner. Philipson put his finger on the problem when he said, “The way the media reports the weather won’t impact whether the sun shines tomorrow. But the way the media reports on our economy weighs on consumer sentiment, which feeds into consumer purchases and investments.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 05, 2019
FOURTH TURNING ECONOMICS / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
If you feel you’ve recei“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Sunday, August 04, 2019
Why Trump’s Low-dollar Economic Plan Won’t Work / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
The slowdown in the United States, and throughout the world, has led many to speculate that the time has come for an intervention in the US economy.
Despite a healthy stock market and the economy barreling along at near full employment, persistent negative economic indicators have policymakers twitching for some kind of response.
On Friday US Gross Domestic Product numbers failed to inspire. American GDP grew just 2.1% in the second quarter, compared to a 3.1% gain in Q1. One of the most important takeaways from the official report card on the economy, was the value of inventories, or goods waiting to be sold. It shrank by $44.3 billion, Marketwatch reported, knocking a full percentage point off GDP.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
Don't listen to the naysayers -- there IS a way to forecast the general health of the economy. This method has repeatedly proven itself.
Yes, you can anticipate the likelihood of a recession, even a depression -- or, conversely, when major economic measures -- like jobs -- will be robust.
That surefire way is the performance of the stock market.
That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy. Why not the other way around? Because the economy is a slow boat.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 12, 2019
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable / Politics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
While the willingness to abandon long held beliefs for political gain has always been a common trait among public figures, the spectacle has recently taken on shocking levels of casual audacity. The contempt for even minimal levels of intellectual consistency has allowed Kamala Harris to condemn Joe Biden for his past opposition to Federally mandated busing while simultaneously taking the exact same position herself. These somersaults are particularly common with former economic conservatives seeking to curry favor with President Trump's decidedly non-conservative policies.
We have seen former free-trader Larry Kudlow awkwardly embrace high tariffs and big deficits, and economist Stephen Moore disavow decades of monetary hawkishness to position himself as a potentially reliable Trump loyalist. But the most dizzying reversal came this week when supposedly conservative Reagan administration economist Arthur Laffer (in what I believe to be an audition for a job in the Trump Administration) hit the airwaves to make the case that the Federal Reserve should be run directly by the President, not by the Fed's supposedly independent governors. Come again? Direct political control of a central bank has always been the bogeyman of any conservative economist. Was he serious?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Freight Slowdown Is a Terrible Sign for the Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
Just as an army moves on its stomach, an economy moves on ships, trucks, and planes. They carry the goods whose purchase adds up to growth.Nowadays many goods are digital, delivered electronically. But we still need lots of physical stuff which must travel to the customer.
Fewer goods in motion mean lower growth… and that’s exactly what is happening.
With technology, businesses have grown adept at managing inventory. Goods don’t typically sit on store shelves very long. Retailers stop ordering quickly when demand falls.
Lower freight volume is a symptom of a disease that’s getting worse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 24, 2019
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: Robert_Ross
Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.
That means most people who want to work can find a job. It also means people are making more money and buying more stuff.
All good. More people working is always positive. But a low unemployment rate is a double-edged sword.
See, the unemployment rate is cyclical. It’s always moving up or down. And at this point—3.6%—there’s almost no room for it to drop more.
That’s where the trouble starts: When the unemployment rate bottoms out, like it’s doing now, it means the economy has peaked. And a recession is probably coming…
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Will the US Economy Fall into Recession? Or Will It Accelerate? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Is that not suspicious? We invite you to read our today’s article, which provide you with the valuable lessons from the 1990s expansion for the gold market and find out whether the US economy will die of old age.
Lessons from the 1990s Expansion for the Economy and the Gold Market
The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Unless the sky falls in the next few weeks, we will celebrate a new record in July. Is that not suspicious?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 02, 2019
US ECONOMY and House Prices Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economic fundamentals appear good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of +3.2% up from +2.6% a year ago. Whilst not a boom is still definitely not deflationary so supportive of house prices as the economy continues to chug along and thus implies US house prices should revert towards the 4% to 6% trend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 18, 2019
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher / Economics / US Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Later in today’s program we’ll hear from Axel Merk of Merk Investments. Axel breaks down the trade war with China and gives us some keen insights on the likely strategy being employed by President Donald Trump there, and also tells us why he sees inflationary pressures returning in the economy and the affects it will have on gold prices. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the highly respected Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
As markets continue to gyrate on global trade and tariff threats, precious metals are struggling to capture investor interest.
Lately, the big push in alternative assets has been in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has doubled in price over the past two months, though it remains well below its old high.
Gold was the sole metal to show strength amidst the recent selloff in stocks. However, its momentum petered out mid week and turned lower on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold prices are down 0.8% for the week to trade at $1,277 an ounce.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 12, 2019
US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update / Economics / US Economy
By: Troy_Bombardia
Instead of trying to predict when the economy will deteriorate in the distant future (which countless experts have tried and failed), we simply look for deterioration among the leading indicators. Instead of predicting the next 10 steps, we seek to predict the next 1-2 steps for the economy.
Here’s a brief summary of the leading economic indicators we track
Positive factors
- Labor market
- Corporate profits
- Financial conditions
- Loans
- High yield spreads
- Inflation-adjusted new orders
- Heavy Truck Sales
Negative factors
- Housing
- Yield curve
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales
- Earnings revisions
- Average weekly hours
Friday, May 10, 2019
Make America’s Economy Great Again / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
A lot of Americans find themselves in a quandary over Donald Trump. On the one hand they can’t stand the braggadocious billionaire for his lack of principles, business ethics, exorbitant wealth, his treatment of women, minorities, the list goes on and on. But they also have to admit, the economy is in better shape now than when Barack Obama was installed in the White House.
Can Trump justifiably take credit for the economic expansion of the last two and a half years? Why is the US economy growing? In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the question, “Why is the American economy great again?”
The sweet spot
The facts would appear to support that notion - the evidence shows that the economy has done extremely well since Trump was inaugurated as president in January, 2017.
In the first quarter, the US economy barreled along at 3.2%. A year ago it was at 4.2%. That’s not the highest growth the American economy has seen historically, but it’s pretty good. Taking a look at the chart below by Trading Economics, we can see that economic growth peaked in 2014, at close to 6%, when Obama was president, then dropped under 1% as the US election cycle began, in 2015. Since Trump has taken the helm, the trend line is clearly up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Record-Low Unemployment and Trump’s Message to China: Implications for Gold / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The US unemployment rate dropped in April to 3.6 percent, a level not seen since December 1969. So, everything must be great. With the exception of the renewed worries about the U.S.-China trade deal. On Sunday, President Trump surprised the markets again. What did he write exactly and how could his tweets affect the gold market?
US Economy Adds More Than 250,000 new jobs in April
America created 263,000 jobs last month, following a strong rise of 189,000 in March (after an downward revision). The number surprised again on a positive side, as the economists polled by the MarketWatch forecasted 213,000 created jobs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
U.S. GDP Accelerates, while Socialists Triumph in Spain. Will Gold also Win? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The US economic growth in the Q1 2019 positively surprised. Indeed, on the upside. The doubting Thomasses were proven wrong. And The Socialist Party just won the snap elections in Spain. Is the left back in vogue in the Eurozone? But what does it all mean for the gold market?
US GDP Surprises on the Upside
On Friday, the government said that the US GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2019. What is important is that the number significantly surpassed the forecasts. For example, the economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 2.3 percent increase. The fears of the slowdown were overblown, as we have been warning for a long time.
Actually, the American economy accelerated in the first three months of 2019, as the economy grew at a 2.2 percent in Q4 2018, as one can see in the chart below.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
This Indicator Signals the US Economy Is Slowing Down / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
It’s not a good sign for your health if your blood pressure drops too low. Similarly, the economy is probably sick when its circulatory system slows down. You don’t need a blood pressure gauge to know it either. Just count how many trucks you see on the highway.
Under normal conditions, busy highways and seaports mean a growing economy. Businesses are producing more stuff finding its way to consumers.
That was happening since we emerged from the Great Recession in 2009, albeit slower than in the past cycles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 28, 2019
What US Economic Fundementals and Valuations Say For Stock Market Trend 2019 / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FUNDAMENTALS
US Economy
The US economic fundamentals are good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of 3.1%, up from +2,5% a year earlier. Whilst not a boom is definitely not deflationary so supportive for stock prices as the economy continues to chug along.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Mauldin: My 2019 Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I recently did a “2019 Investment Outlook” webinar with my business partner Steve Blumenthal.
We looked at three topics: recession probability, credit conditions, and stock valuations. I can tell, we went deep on the webinar. You can read a transcript or view a recording here.
Here I’ll give you an abbreviated version of that webinar.
Economists Can’t Recognize Recessions in Real Time
Steve started the webinar by noting we are late in an economic cycle. He showed the chart below to illustrate how all cycles have expansion periods that end with recession.
Read full article... Read full article...