Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, July 14, 2014
Pimco Steals AIG’s Bond Fund Insurance Playbook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Pimco is putting all their chips on the table, betting that low interest rates, along with lower and more stable global growth, will last for the next 3 to 5 years; an economic condition it is referring to as the "new neutral".
In fact, the company is so convinced of this "sure thing", it's placing a straight bet--selling insurance against price fluctuations on their $230bn flagship bond fund Pimco Total Return. That means it is offering investors price stability in the bond portfolio, in return for a premium.
Monday, July 14, 2014
Fed Officials Trying to Warn Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
The Purpose of Complacency Talk
The Fed officials have been coming out in speeches the last couple of weeks with rhetoric about ‘complacency’ and other such code words for chasing risk ahead of what the Federal Reserve knows is going to be an abrupt change in monetary policy over the next six months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 12, 2014
The Bond Rally is Not a Good Omen for the Stock Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
The Fed says the economy remains healthy enough that it will continue to taper back its QE stimulus at a rate of $10 billion a month, with plans to have it at zero by October.
Speculation now is on when it will begin the next step toward returning its monetary policy to normal, by beginning to raise interest rates from their current level near zero.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Bond Market Prices in a Rising Rate Environment / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
JP Morgan Asset Management put out their Q3 2014 market outlook in which they discuss bond performance in a rising rate market. You should be aware of the key points they make.
In this table, JPM explains how a 1% interest rate change would impact each of several types of bonds:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2014
Bombs er Bonds, Debacle at Our Doorstep! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ty_Andros
The breathtaking rush into the perceived safety and stability of the Bomb er Bond markets which began at the depths of the 2008 Global financial crisis are in blow off mode. A recent Bank of international settlements annual report has been ignored due to its message of CAUTION. The main stream media routinely blacks out these messages and have done so this time. Frenzied reach for yields are occurring throughout the world.
Wednesday, July 02, 2014
Rising Interest Rates... Falling Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
TNX took off like a bottle rocket for a second day, overcoming its 50-day Moving Average at 25.87 and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 25.92. It should complete Minor Wave 1 of (3) near the hourly Cycle Top at 26.73.
This is Primary Cycle action and it may not be over until July 25 to July 29.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2014
The Bond Market Trap / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
The American financial establishment has an incredible ability to celebrate the inconsequential while ignoring the vital. Last week, while the Wall Street Journal pondered how the Fed may set interest rates three to four years in the future (an exercise that David Stockman rightly compared to debating how many angels could dance on the head of a pin), the media almost completely ignored one of the most chilling pieces of financial news that I have ever seen. According to a small story in the Financial Times, some Fed officials would like to require retail owners of bond mutual funds to pay an "exit fee" to liquidate their positions. Come again? That such a policy would even be considered tells us much about the current fragility of our bond market and the collective insanity of layers of unnecessary regulation.
Monday, June 16, 2014
Bond Market Kings to be Dethroned in Second Half of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Jeffrey Gundlach`s Outlook
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital LP says the 10-year U.S. Treasury note will likely trade in a range between 2.20 and 2.80 percent during the second half of year. Gundlach also said U.S. Treasuries are a buy for investors as they are yielding in the upper half of his projected trading range. He said this on June 10th of 2014 and it seems he still expects the 10-year yield to be lower than the 2.40% bottom put in about 3 weeks and 20 basis points ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2014
Why U.S. Treasury Bond Yields are at Record Lows / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
It seems that nearly everyone is confounded by the record low bond yields that are prevalent across the globe today. If investors can correctly pinpoint the real reason behind these low sovereign debt yields, they will also be able to find a great parking place for their investment capital to weather the upcoming storm.
Monday, June 02, 2014
30 Year US T-Bonds Headed For New Highs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
In recent months I’ve heard a lot of chatter about how interest rates are now on the up. Heads are nodded in approval with comments along the lines of rates couldn’t really go any lower. Well count me out of that love-fest. After looking at the yearly chart of 30 Year US Treasury Bonds I have to say I can’t disagree enough. Let’s see why.
Friday, May 30, 2014
The Party Is Over In The U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Last Hurrah
Everybody knew the GDP number was going to be revised down on this reading, and that it probably gets revised up for the next reading, and Bond Traders used the Revision in first quarter GDP to take the 10-Year Yield down to 2.4% on a nice push, but this required a whole lot of ammunition, and as soon as Europe started to close at 10 am central time (Europe close is 10:30 am for practical purposes) the Traders needed to start closing some of these positions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 29, 2014
BRICS Gold Source & Belgium U.S. Treasury Bonds Bulge / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The detection of the rapid rise in USTreasury Bonds in the Belgium official central bank account has aroused broad and deep suspicions. Finally an open sore is visible that cannot be explained away easily. It first appeared a couple months ago. The initial knee-jerk reaction was that the USFed was colluding with the Euro Central Bank to hide heavy bond monetized purchases in New York, in effect demonstrating the Jackass point that the QE volume was huge, that the Bernanke and Yellen Fed were astute liars using deception. Next the evidence pointed to Russia having embarked on a significant dump of USTBonds using the proxy of EuroClear. It all made so much sense, the Russian account having declined in roughly the same volume as the Belgium account rose. Be sure to know that tiny Belgium has a rather notable current account deficit, no surplus funds to invest. Belgium has a GDP of $480 billion, the bulge fast approaching the size of their entire economy. Their chief export is tied closely to the hot air emanating from the EU Commission and Parliament, neither body possessing a scintilla of global integrity.
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
U.S. Treasury Bonds - The Belgian Connection / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
One of the biggest questions at the end of 2013 was how the Treasury market would react to the reduction of bond buying that would result from the Federal Reserve's tapering campaign. If the Fed were to hold course to its stated intentions, its $45 billion monthly purchases of Treasury bonds would be completely wound down by the fourth quarter of 2014. Given that those purchases represented a very large portion of Treasury bond issuance at that time, it was widely assumed by many, me in particular, that the sidelining of such huge demand would push down the price of Treasury bonds. Without the Fed's bid, interest rates would have to rise.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2014
Bond Market Investing - Not All Debt Is Created Equal / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Don_Miller
Optimal diversification: We all want it. Diversification is, after all, the holy grail of portfolio management. Our senior research analyst Andrey Dashkov has said that many times before, and he echoes that refrain in his editorial guest spot below.
A brief note before I hand over the reins to Andrey. The last time the market tanked, many of my friends suffered huge losses. They all thought their portfolios were well diversified. Many held several mutual funds and thought their plans were foolproof. Sad to say, those funds dropped in tandem with the rapidly falling market. Our readers need not suffer a similar fate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 13, 2014
A Second Look at U.S. Savings Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Don_Miller
If you remember bond drives in school, please raise your hand. There are still a lot of us out there. I recall my teacher holding up a US Savings Bond, encouraging us to tell our parents to buy them. She went to great lengths emphasizing that they were the "the safest investment on earth."
Saturday, February 01, 2014
U.S. Treasury Bonds Defying Dire Forecasts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
There was no doubt about it in 2013. If the Fed were ever to cut back on its five years of massive QE bond-buying, bond prices would collapse.
It made sense. Of the $85 billion a month of QE, $40 billion was in mortgage-backed securities, and $45 billion in Treasury bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Continuing Low Interest Rates Environment for Long term U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Last week Greg Weldon made the case for rising interest rates on US treasuries. This week Lacy Hunt offers us the case for a continued low-interest-rate environment for long-term treasuries. This is one of the most fascinating tugs-of-war in the investment world today. I’ve made the argument that we are in a deflationary deleveraging world for quite some time to come, or at least until the velocity of money turns around. Lacy makes that point, too, and offers some insights into the velocity of money. This is a fascinating Outside the Box, and I won’t spoil it by stealing any more of Lacy’s thunder.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Trades Near 6%; If Taper Is For Real / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The most important question for investors at this time is to determine how high interest rates will rise; if indeed the Fed's artificial suppression of yields is truly about to end. To accomplish this we first must consider where yields last were outside of central bank debt monetization, a recession and the Eurozone debt crisis. Then, we need to factor in the increased risks to inflation and solvency, in order to arrive at an appropriate estimation for the level of interest rates during 2014.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Why What’s Happening in the U.S. Bond Market Now Is So Important to Stock Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Taper or no taper? When? How much? These are the worries that are currently driving tensions in the stock market on a daily basis. As I wrote in a previous article, no one seems to care that corporate revenue growth is muted and consumers aren’t spending.
Last week, we saw jobs market data that helps support the Federal Reserve’s reasons to begin tapering its bond buying program.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 01, 2013
Janet Yellen, U.S. Interest Rates and Market Psychology at Major Market Turns / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Janet Yellen just moved closer to her place in history when the Senate Banking Committee approved her nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. The full Senate is expected to confirm. If so, she will be the first chairwoman in the central bank's 100 year history.
But when her term concludes, gender may be secondary to the narrative about her time at the helm. The larger focus could be that Yellen was at the helm of economic disaster.
Read full article... Read full article...