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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, July 24, 2015

Misperceptions Create Significant Bond Market Value / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management reminds us that since the 1990-91 recession, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%, a downward move nearly identical to the decline in the rate of inflation, which fell from just over 6% in 1990 to 0% today. Therefore, Lacy says, “(I)t was the backdrop of shifting inflationary circumstances that once again determined the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields.”

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 20, 2015

The Final Phase Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

There has been quite a bit of chatter in recent times about the bond bubble bursting. So, have we seen the final high in bond prices or final low in interest rates? No, I don’t believe so but we are indeed approaching the final phase of this bond bubble.

Let’s try to nail down the end of this bull market in bond prices and bear market in bond yields or interest rates by analysing in detail the charts of the 30yr US T-Bond prices and yields. We’ll begin with the big picture yearly chart of bond prices.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 20, 2015

The Simplest Way to View the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: It has been a wild time for fixed-income investments over the last couple years...

Interest rates are historically low in the U.S. In Europe, rates have spent time in negative territory... meaning investors were willing to take a guaranteed loss.

It can be hard to get a handle on what's happening today in the bond market... never mind where things may be headed tomorrow.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 19, 2015

US. Bonds and Banks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This year has seen some big losses develop in the bond markets, though prices have stabilised in recent days. The chart above is of the yield on the lowest investment risk in ten year maturities. Most other 10-year bonds have seen even sharper rises in yield (i.e. greater price falls). This matters because the banking system is heavily invested in sovereign bonds, not only in the short end of the market where it traditionally invests its liquidity, but also in longer maturities between five and ten years. Furthermore, central banks have become exposed to the same risk through their bond purchases with implications for currency stability, but that is a separate issue.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Bond Bubble - The Fed is Now Officially in VERY Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The market action of the last 24 hours can be summated as thus:

The Fed didn’t raise rates, so the US Dollar fell and all risk rallied hard.

The fact the Fed didn’t raise rates is not important. Interest rates have not been at zero for six years. And the last real period of tightening ended in 2006, nearly a full decade ago.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 15, 2015

Bond Market Bombshell - Deflation Rules! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clive_Maund

DEFLATION RULES! - because periodic recessions, necessary to rebalance the economy after periods of growth, cannot be put off forever by the short-term expedient of printing money. The result of such corrupt and evasive practices is that the deflationary forces build up to catastrophic and overwhelming proportions leading to economic collapse and depression. This is the point that we have arrived at now. Why can't governments keep the game going indefinitely by printing more and more money? - because the debt grows and grows until it becomes apparent even to dull-witted bond / Treasury holders that they are never going to get their money back, so they start selling and the selling snowballs into an avalanche, driving interest rates through the roof. Bond and stockmarkets crash and the economy sinks into a dangerously deep depression, all because governments stubbornly refused to do the right thing all along, and interfered with and obstructed normal market forces, culminating in their idiotic and ruinous QE, ZIRP and now even NIRP.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 05, 2015

US Jobs Report Gives Green Light for a Interest Rate Hike? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

TNX is back in the news this morning with a huge spike in yields. The monthly Jobs Report came out much better than expected. Never mind that the vast bulk of those jobs was fictitious, AKA the CES Birth/Death Model. This gives the Fed the green light to hike rates, er…to follow what the market is already doing with the rates. This is an awfully tight corner for the Fed to be in.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

The Coming Bond Market Collapse: Make a Killing – While Everyone Else Gets Killed / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: We’re hurtling toward the biggest bond bubble the world has ever seen.

It’s going to start leaking.

Then it’s going to pop.

Today I’m going to tell you what to look for – because I’m all over this.

I’m also going to share four handpicked recommendations that will soar when the bond bubble bursts.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 28, 2015

We're Now Frighteningly Vulnerable to a Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: Water doesn’t flow uphill.

It’s a lesson in physics so basic that even schoolkids know it.

In fact, everyone knows it…

Everyone except – apparently – the world’s central bankers.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 22, 2015

Inaccurate Economic Statistics and The Threat to the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced in without accepting it is actually significantly higher.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 18, 2015

Bond Market Chaos Is Spinning Out of Control / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Michael Lewitt writes: A few weeks ago, the man formerly known as the Bond King, Bill Gross, tweeted that shorting German bunds would be the trade of the century.

I was gratified to see that he was reading my mind, as readers of my Credit Strategist newsletter already know.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 15, 2015

Double Black Diamond - What a Bond Bear Market Looks Like / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

I was a halfway decent skier when I was a kid. Good enough that I could navigate every trail on the mountain except for one or two. Good enough that I could do the double black diamonds.

My grandfather built a cabin on the access road to Sugarbush, Vermont, in the ‘80s and sold it in the ‘90s. Makes me weep when I think what that thing would be worth now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I come from a financially unsophisticated family.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Debt Bomb - Big Volatility Shakes Bond Market Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Is the debt bomb about to go off?

Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

U.S. Bond Bear Market Still Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

The has been lots of talk lately of a Bond market top. This type of talk has actually been going on, and off, for a few years. To our surprise we find we have not written a Bond specific report in nearly three years: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/bonds-and-long-term-rates/. In that report we detailed why we expected Bond yields to be bottoming in 2012. The 10YR did make a new yield low that year at 1.39%, and it has remained above that low ever since – currently 2.27%. The 30YR also made a new low yield that year at 2.45%. It then rose to 3.98% in 2014, but renewed its decline into a lower low at 2.23% in February of this year – currently 3.04%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

TLT Breaks a Head & Shoulders Neckline / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TLT just crossed the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation, suggesting a very steep decline to 107.76.
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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 04, 2015

U.S. Long Bond, an Historic Trading Opportunity? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

This past week saw a huge swing in interest rates at the long end of the curve with the long bond in particular getting knocked for a loop.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Rush Hour! A Bond Market Traffic Jam / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Harry_Dent

Rodney Johnson writes: In the early 1990s I was a young bond trader with a Wall Street firm. 

The business was not exactly like the movies, but it wasn’t too far off, either. We got to work by 7:00 a.m., set the strategy for the day — “Are we buying more or selling more?” — and then got on the phones. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2015

3 Sigma Extremes In the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DeviantInvestor

US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close.  That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change.  This is a huge move.  What does it mean?

The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990.  Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever.  This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets.  Several $Trillion in European sovereign debt currently “pays” negative interest – an extreme condition.  The Bank of Japan has aggressively purchased Japanese government bonds as well as Japanese stocks – another extreme example of a bond bubble.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

Watch As All the Bond Market Rats Jump Ship before FOMC Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Short-Term Market Flipping

Markets are just hilarious these days, there is no meaningful investments in the era of High Frequency Trading, Spoofing Algos, Pump & Dump IPO Schemes and ZIRP free money to borrow at the drop of a hat.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Crazy Man's Guide to the U.S.Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

I invite you to inspect the following chart of 10-year interest rates in the US.

If you don’t have a lot of experience with these things, let me clue you in: This is a very scary-looking chart. It’s a classic head-and-shoulders bottom in yields.

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