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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 03, 2014

The U.S. Government Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Moses_Kim

What follows will read like an indictment on our entire economic system. But underlying my (relatively mild) harangue is an observation that people are ignoring the most obvious bubble out there; that is, the bubble in U.S. government bonds. The following is my attempt to figure out why.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 21, 2014

The Bond Market is taking Advantage of Janet Yellen`s Dovishness / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Push the Limits

It has been a common theme in financial markets to push the limits on any possible edge, so if there are restrictions on banks and financial institutions use of leverage, lobby for change, or if activity falls under a certain governmental regulation, alter the activity so that it is classified under a different interpretation so that previous limits can be exceeded.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 17, 2014

The Federal Reserve in Denial Mode - Bond Market Explained / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Business Media Rock Star

On Thursday Mohamed A. El-Erian was on CNBC`s Halftime Report and he said something that a lot of people have been saying regarding the bond market, and it needs to be cleared up, because the amount of poor understanding regarding the bond market by people who make their living, i.e., are in the financial market business is astounding. It is even more mind blowing given that Mohamed A. El-Erian actually worked at a Bond Firm in PIMCO, and helped manage Harvard` s endowment in the past.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 15, 2014

Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

Bonds do not like economic strength, but love economic weakness.

It makes sense. In a strong economy there is upward pressure on interest rates, and therefore on bond yields. When bond yields go up, their prices go down.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 10, 2014

The Bottom Is In For US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Russian Invasion Tension

It occurred Friday morning while most traders were asleep in illiquid markets where the 10-Year was forced down to basically 2.35% in Yield first on Ukraine worries over the Russian buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border, and then on the announcement that the US would provide air strikes in Iraq to stem ISIS aggression.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Inflation Adjusted Bond Prices Tell Different Story on Relative Value / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

One of the arguments for why US Bonds are such an attractive investment even at these low yields is that relative to European Bonds the US Treasuries provide such a higher yield, but this analysis is shortsighted because it fails to take into account the factor of inflation. Once you adjust yields based upon inflation it tells investors an entirely different story in regards to relative value of bonds and the comparison is different between European and US Bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 19, 2014

U.S. Bond Yield Carry Traders Need To Fade Upcoming Econ Events / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Fading Strong Employment Reports

The trend in the bond markets the last several months, and basically all of 2014 has been to buy bonds in the dead periods of econ reports, or the econ reports that would be detrimental to their non-growth, more dovish Fed case. And the last several weeks have been similar to the prior months, basically wait for the stellar job`s report blows yields up to 2.70% on the 10-Year and then buy bonds, pushing down yields in the three weeks after the Employment Report, with the goal of getting out before the next Employment Report.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 14, 2014

Pimco Steals AIG’s Bond Fund Insurance Playbook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Pimco is putting all their chips on the table, betting that low interest rates, along with lower and more stable global growth, will last for the next 3 to 5 years; an economic condition it is referring to as the "new neutral".

In fact, the company is so convinced of this "sure thing", it's placing a straight bet--selling insurance against price fluctuations on their $230bn flagship bond fund Pimco Total Return. That means it is offering investors price stability in the bond portfolio, in return for a premium.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 14, 2014

Fed Officials Trying to Warn Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

The Purpose of Complacency Talk

The Fed officials have been coming out in speeches the last couple of weeks with rhetoric about ‘complacency’ and other such code words for chasing risk ahead of what the Federal Reserve knows is going to be an abrupt change in monetary policy over the next six months.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 12, 2014

The Bond Rally is Not a Good Omen for the Stock Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

The Fed says the economy remains healthy enough that it will continue to taper back its QE stimulus at a rate of $10 billion a month, with plans to have it at zero by October.

Speculation now is on when it will begin the next step toward returning its monetary policy to normal, by beginning to raise interest rates from their current level near zero.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Bond Market Prices in a Rising Rate Environment / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

JP Morgan Asset Management put out their Q3 2014 market outlook in which they discuss bond performance in a rising rate market. You should be aware of the key points they make.

In this table, JPM explains how a 1% interest rate change would impact each of several types of bonds:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Bombs er Bonds, Debacle at Our Doorstep! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ty_Andros

The breathtaking rush into the perceived safety and stability of the Bomb er Bond markets which began at the depths of the 2008 Global financial crisis are in blow off mode. A recent Bank of international settlements annual report has been ignored due to its message of CAUTION. The main stream media routinely blacks out these messages and have done so this time. Frenzied reach for yields are occurring throughout the world.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Rising Interest Rates... Falling Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX took off like a bottle rocket for a second day, overcoming its 50-day Moving Average at 25.87 and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 25.92. It should complete Minor Wave 1 of (3) near the hourly Cycle Top at 26.73.

This is Primary Cycle action and it may not be over until July 25 to July 29.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 23, 2014

The Bond Market Trap / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

The American financial establishment has an incredible ability to celebrate the inconsequential while ignoring the vital. Last week, while the Wall Street Journal pondered how the Fed may set interest rates three to four years in the future (an exercise that David Stockman rightly compared to debating how many angels could dance on the head of a pin), the media almost completely ignored one of the most chilling pieces of financial news that I have ever seen. According to a small story in the Financial Times, some Fed officials would like to require retail owners of bond mutual funds to pay an "exit fee" to liquidate their positions. Come again? That such a policy would even be considered tells us much about the current fragility of our bond market and the collective insanity of layers of unnecessary regulation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 16, 2014

Bond Market Kings to be Dethroned in Second Half of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Jeffrey Gundlach`s Outlook

Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital LP says the 10-year U.S. Treasury note will likely trade in a range between 2.20 and 2.80 percent during the second half of year. Gundlach also said U.S. Treasuries are a buy for investors as they are yielding in the upper half of his projected trading range. He said this on June 10th of 2014 and it seems he still expects the 10-year yield to be lower than the 2.40% bottom put in about 3 weeks and 20 basis points ago.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Why U.S. Treasury Bond Yields are at Record Lows / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

It seems that nearly everyone is confounded by the record low bond yields that are prevalent across the globe today. If investors can correctly pinpoint the real reason behind these low sovereign debt yields, they will also be able to find a great parking place for their investment capital to weather the upcoming storm.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 02, 2014

30 Year US T-Bonds Headed For New Highs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

In recent months I’ve heard a lot of chatter about how interest rates are now on the up. Heads are nodded in approval with comments along the lines of rates couldn’t really go any lower. Well count me out of that love-fest. After looking at the yearly chart of 30 Year US Treasury Bonds I have to say I can’t disagree enough. Let’s see why.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 30, 2014

The Party Is Over In The U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Last Hurrah

Everybody knew the GDP number was going to be revised down on this reading, and that it probably gets revised up for the next reading, and Bond Traders used the Revision in first quarter GDP to take the 10-Year Yield down to 2.4% on a nice push, but this required a whole lot of ammunition, and as soon as Europe started to close at 10 am central time (Europe close is 10:30 am for practical purposes) the Traders needed to start closing some of these positions.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 29, 2014

BRICS Gold Source & Belgium U.S. Treasury Bonds Bulge / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The detection of the rapid rise in USTreasury Bonds in the Belgium official central bank account has aroused broad and deep suspicions. Finally an open sore is visible that cannot be explained away easily. It first appeared a couple months ago. The initial knee-jerk reaction was that the USFed was colluding with the Euro Central Bank to hide heavy bond monetized purchases in New York, in effect demonstrating the Jackass point that the QE volume was huge, that the Bernanke and Yellen Fed were astute liars using deception. Next the evidence pointed to Russia having embarked on a significant dump of USTBonds using the proxy of EuroClear. It all made so much sense, the Russian account having declined in roughly the same volume as the Belgium account rose. Be sure to know that tiny Belgium has a rather notable current account deficit, no surplus funds to invest. Belgium has a GDP of $480 billion, the bulge fast approaching the size of their entire economy. Their chief export is tied closely to the hot air emanating from the EU Commission and Parliament, neither body possessing a scintilla of global integrity.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

U.S. Treasury Bonds - The Belgian Connection / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

One of the biggest questions at the end of 2013 was how the Treasury market would react to the reduction of bond buying that would result from the Federal Reserve's tapering campaign. If the Fed were to hold course to its stated intentions, its $45 billion monthly purchases of Treasury bonds would be completely wound down by the fourth quarter of 2014. Given that those purchases represented a very large portion of Treasury bond issuance at that time, it was widely assumed by many, me in particular, that the sidelining of such huge demand would push down the price of Treasury bonds. Without the Fed's bid, interest rates would have to rise.

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