Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Warning U.S. Treasury Bond Bull Market May Be Over / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyGainsLetter
Moe Zulfiqar writes: When the financial crisis took grip on the U.S. economy, investors fled the stock market and ran towards bonds—more specifically, high-quality U.S. government bonds. The reason behind this was very simple: they would rather invest their money in something where they knew their capital was safe than in the stock market, which was uncertain at the very best.
Tuesday, May 07, 2013
U.S. Bond Market Breakdown / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Robert_M_Williams
"Facts are the enemy of truth."- Don Quixote - "Man of La Mancha"
Last week we had the FOMC decision by the US Federal Reserve in which they said that they would continue purchasing US $85 billion a month with basically no end in sight. Aside from that they stated for the first time that they would consider increasing the amount purchased (QE) if the economy were to weaken further. So I don’t have to be able to read the tea leafs to know that puts the Fed squarely on it’s chosen path of monetary stimulus, or QE as it is called, where they go into the bond market and continue to buy debt while holding rates at zero. During the first quarter the Fed purchased 72% of all new debt issued, so you could say it is a market maker. Some might go so far as to say that they are the market.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell-Off Imminent? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyGainsLetter
Moe Zulfiqar writes: In its most recent statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it will continue to print $85.0 billion a month. With this money, it will buy $45.0 billion worth of long-term government debt and $40.0 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month.
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Friday, May 03, 2013
Expert Forecasts U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: Not only is a bond market crash inevitable, but it will hit sooner than many think - by 2015 or 2016 at the latest, according to Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.
"It's the most overpriced, over-owned, oversupplied market in the history of American economics," Pento said of the bond market in an interview with The Street.
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Friday, April 19, 2013
U.S. Bond Market Trouble Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: Warren Buffett recently opined that bonds should come with a warning label these days.
That is doubly true of most bond funds. Many investors are about to get steamrolled. But if you act now, you can avoid getting hurt.
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Saturday, April 06, 2013
Forget About The Fed Dialing Back QE3 – U.S. Buy Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
The economic recovery has been progressing so well that it had become almost a sure thing the Fed will begin phasing out its easy money policy and QE stimulus programs much earlier than planned, possibly beginning as early as this summer.
Even the Fed seems to be preparing markets for that probability with its recent statements, and speeches by individual Fed governors.
Friday, April 05, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
As I scanned my charts I thought I’d got a little off the beaten track to highlight something that is deeply affecting us. That is Treasury yields.
The reason I said this is because Treasury yields may have made their Master Cycle low today, or may do so in the next few trading days. The Cycles Model captures this event by showing that yields may have been stopped at the mid-Cycle support line at 17.53. There may be a challenge or a probe lower, but the uptrend line is just beneath it, so we will know very soon whether it is successful in turning Yields back up or not. If so, the uptrend in yields is preserved.
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Saturday, March 09, 2013
The Coming Ponzi U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
It is my contention that the 70-year debt supercycle has come to an end.
To put the current financial situation in perspective, here's a long-term history of the debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached a record high at the beginning of the current crisis. It was a dramatic change in 2009, unlike anything since the aftermath of the Great Depression.
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Saturday, March 02, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market's Last Bull Run / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Steve McDonald writes: When the Italians couldn’t agree on one candidate, and the U.S. faced it’s so called sequester, it may have been the last shot of life support for the bond market, for a long time.
This is very likely the last hurrah for the 30-year bond bull market. It may also be the last chance for the multitudes that have been plowing money into bond funds to take profits and save their retirements.
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Thursday, February 28, 2013
US Treasury Bonds The Biggest Bubble In History About to Pop / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jeff_Berwick
The US Treasury Bond market is the longest unbroken bull market known to the financial world. For more than 30 years it has trended higher in nominal US dollar terms.
Monday, February 25, 2013
How the Fed Will Crash the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
Richard Moyer writes: When you or I buy bonds, we pay a certain amount of money to buy someone elses debt. In return, they pay us a certain amount of interest for a fixed period of time.
Friday, February 15, 2013
What About U.S. Bond Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Robert_M_Williams
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860)
Interest rates are an integral part of our life since most of us have mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and even student loans. Interest rates are the new plague and they are everywhere. The media continues to remind us that the US Federal Reserve, acting in our best interest, will remain accommodative for many months to come. That means keeping rates at or near zero and the presses rolling. This will supposedly grease the wheels of the economy and facilitate the recovery we’re hearing so much about. Inversely the media never mentions the fact that it’s the market that sets rates, and that very same market has been raising rates for months.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Bond Market Bubble Expectations / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: BATR
Bonds are loans that have the expectation of payback with interest. Government bonds are viewed as the safest financial instrument since the primary fiscal obligation of the state is to honor the terms of their own notes. However, in the fevered climate of currency wars among central banksters, the security factor of capital repayment is rapidly coming into question. As interest rates rise, the economic value of the bond diminishes. This inverted normal relationship is the essential dynamic of lending money with the purchase of Treasury Bonds. So what is all the talk about a bond bubble and likelihood that it will destroy your underwriting capital?
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
General Public Doesn't Quite Understand Bond Market Risks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs President and COO Gary Cohn spoke with Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle on "Market Makers" from Cleveland, OH today, one of the cities where Goldman provides education and funding for small business owners.
Cohn said that, "there is really only one way that interest rates can go over some period of time which is ultimately higher. I'm concerned that the general public does not quite understand the pricing of bonds and interest rates and the inverse correlation between the two."
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Monday, February 11, 2013
U.S. Bond Markets Major Top, Yields Poised tor Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conqier tje Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted form lessening inflation to outright deflation.
Saturday, February 09, 2013
U.S. Government Suing S&P Ratings Agency is Messing with U.S. Bond Market Bull / Politics / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
With the announcement this week of its massive $5 billion lawsuit against ratings agency Standard & Poor's, the Federal Government took a bold step to squelch any remaining independence of thought or action in the financial services industry. Given the circumstances and timing of the suit, can there be any doubt that S&P is paying the price for the August 2011 removal of its AAA rating on U.S. Treasury debt? In retaliation for the unpardonable sin of questioning the U.S. Treasury's credit worthiness, the Obama Administration is sending a loud and clear message to Wall Street: mess with the bull and get the horns. Shockingly, the blatant selectivity of the prosecution, however, has failed to ignite a backlash. But as the move violates both the spirit of the Constitution and the letter of the law in so many ways, I can't help but look at it as a sea change in the nature of our governance. Call it Lincoln with a heavy dose of Putin.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Major Bond Markets Top, Bond Yields Poised to Start Rising / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conqier tje Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted form lessening inflation to outright deflation.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Why Are Yields on U.S. Treasuries Rising All of a Sudden? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: Could U.S. debt be reaching a breaking point?
In the chart below of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, it looks like yields on U.S. bonds have bottomed out and are rising again.
As the chart below shows, in June of 2012, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded close to $135.00. Now 10-year Treasury prices have broken below $131.00—a decline of almost three percent.
Friday, January 18, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2013, The "Bloated" Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
The Fiscal Cliff theater was great 'off Broadway' drama, but the real show for traders took center stage Sunday December 16th in Japan. The curtain went up for the newly elected Prime Minister of Japan as the star actor in the unfolding global fiat currency drama.
Japan’s incoming leader Shinzo Abe's opening line was to vow to ram through full-blown reflation policies to pull his country out of slump and drive down the yen, warning Japan's central bank not to defy the will of the people. The profound shift in economic strategy by the world’s top creditor nation with a quadrillion Yen debt, could prove powerful for the global economy as a new variant of the "carry trade" seen earlier this decade, but potentially on a much larger scale.
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Thursday, January 17, 2013
Bond Market Math / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fred_Sheehan
This is the year for stocks. So one would gather from the media. The Wall Street Journal offered a lukewarm endorsement on Monday, January 15, 2012, with the headline: "Investors Flock to Stocks - So Far."
The diffident prediction opens: "As 2013 gets underway, one of the biggest questions in financial markets is again bubbling: Will this be the year that investors dump bonds and return to stocks?" The question may have surprised some readers. The S&P 500 has risen 120%, or, at a 21 percent-a-year pace since March 2009. How did stock prices more than double since investors have dumped stocks and bought bonds? A second question: what might we expect of stock market returns if investors stop taking money out of the market and put it in - 40% a year?
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