Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall
The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!
However, against this consistent mantra of increasing house building is the reality of the real agenda which is actually not to increase house building to meet demand but rather one of leveraging house prices as being one of the primary drivers of the UK economy and thus the chances for electoral success, so forget opinions polls it is house prices that are one of the most accurate predictors for the outcome of UK general elections.
UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor
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Saturday, July 20, 2019
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final analysis in my US housing market series that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast.
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Part1 (UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall). The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual new housing build completions accompanied by annual net migration.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Bridging Finance: An Option for Real Estate Business / Housing-Market / Debt & Loans
By: Submissions
If you are involved in real estate, the chances are high that you will be in need of some sort of financing for property development. A structure that is not developed properly will not sell – which is why you have to come up with ways to cover up the gaps.
Most of the time, this type of financing is usually done through borrowing against the property – and in most cases, the form of financing for property development goes under the name of bridging loans. By reading this guide, you will find out how bridge loan works and how it can help you in your real estate business.
Friday, July 05, 2019
US Home Builders Index (XHB) Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Friday, July 05, 2019
US Housing Market Demographics / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Thursday, July 04, 2019
US Housing Market Is Booming, but Investors Are Still Too Scared to Invest in It / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
The US housing market is booming.
This past month the number of Americans looking to buy a new house spiked to a three-year high. Mortgage applications jumped 40%.
And Quicken Loans, the US’s largest mortgage lender, had its best month in 30 years.
“The phone is ringing off the hook” CEO Jay Farner said in a recent interview.
Tuesday, July 02, 2019
Are US Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders. It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show. Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.
SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders. If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.
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Monday, July 01, 2019
Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months. The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets. This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.
Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other physical assets like precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.
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Monday, July 01, 2019
5 Real Estate Investment Tips to Consider / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Umer_Mahmood
If you’re looking to invest in something that will provide you with a steady amount of wealth, then the real estate market may be an option.Investing in real estate has been around for decades and has proven to make investors quite a bit of money. Much of the success comes down to the interest rates and inflation. What you bought 20 years ago will likely bring you a hefty return in 2019.
As with any investment journey you go on, it’s essential to have a plan. We have five real estate investment tips that you’ll want to consider as you create your plan.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2019
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curve
The yield curve (spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) continues to flirt with inversion, currently standing at 0.23%. Clearly the housing market is not comfortable with an inversion given the slowing trend since 0.5%.
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Monday, June 10, 2019
UK Housing Market BTL Products at Highest Number Since October 2007 / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, shows that the number of buy-to-let (BTL) products available, currently 2,396 products, is the highest on record since the beginnings of the financial crisis in October 2007, when the total number of available products stood at 3,305. Since June 2018, the total number of available BTL products has increased by 21%, and in the past month alone it has risen by 143 products, from 2,253 to 2,396.
Meanwhile, average BTL mortgage rates have also risen over the past 12 months, with the average two-year BTL fixed rate mortgage increasing by 0.17% from 2.88% in June 2018 to 3.05% this month, while the average five-year BTL fixed rate has risen by 0.11% to stand at 3.54% (June 2018: 3.43%). Both rates still stand significantly lower than in October 2007 however, when the average two-year BTL fixed rate stood at 6.36% while its five-year counterpart stood at 6.39%.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Gap Between Average two and five-year Fixed Rate Mortgages at 7 year low / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Latest analysis by Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the difference between the average two-year and five-year fixed mortgage rate has narrowed by 0.06% from 0.42% to 0.36% since the beginning of the year, seeing it stand at the lowest difference recorded in seven years as a result. The average two-year fixed rate has fallen by 0.03% from 2.52% in January 2019 to 2.49% this month, while the average five-year fixed rate decreased by 0.09% from 2.94% to 2.85% over the same period.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019
US Unemployment and Housing Market Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistic of just 3.8% marginal above the low of 3.7% and off of a recent high of 4%. As long as unemployment stays stable at around 4% then this should be supportive of house prices going forward.
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Sunday, June 02, 2019
US ECONOMY and House Prices Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economic fundamentals appear good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of +3.2% up from +2.6% a year ago. Whilst not a boom is still definitely not deflationary so supportive of house prices as the economy continues to chug along and thus implies US house prices should revert towards the 4% to 6% trend.
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Saturday, June 01, 2019
UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 31, 2019
US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US housing market since early 2015 had been trundling along nicely on a momentum of between 4% and 6% per annum. However as of the most recent data that trading pattern has been breached with momentum falling to +3.2% as a consequence of outright falls in US house prices over the past 3 months. Therefore given the trend trajectory it is highly probable that US house prices are now trending towards 0% house price inflation and may even briefly go negative, which I am sure will send alarm bells ringing at the Fed, as it would fear that its banking brethren are about to feel some pain, and we all know what happens when the banks start to feel pain!
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Monday, May 27, 2019
How to Choose a Good Online Estate Agent / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Traditional high street estate agents still control around 95% of the market, but in recent years a newer type of intermediary, the online estate agent, has gained a significant foothold in the sector. Using an ever-expanding range of technological options, a reliable online agency can now offer a similar level of service to their high street equivalents. And because an online operator has substantially lower overheads, homeowners are usually charged a fixed fee which may be just a fraction of the price charged by a bricks-and-mortar estate agent.
Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Average UK House Prices Dragged Down by Decline in Capital / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
Over recent years, house prices in the UK have fluctuated quite significantly. There has been some positive news of late, with house prices across the country increasing by 0.6 percent over the year. However, house prices declined in the South East and London, which resulted in the UK average house price falling.
According to figures, performance in London was the worst in a decade. However, despite the falling property prices, it is still the most expensive place to buy property in the UK. The South East and East of England are the second and third most expensive places to purchase residential property. Figures show that house prices in London have fallen at the fastest pace since 2009.