US House Prices Momentum Analysis

Housing-Market / US Housing May 31, 2019 - 10:56 AM GMT

The US housing market since early 2015 had been trundling along nicely on a momentum of between 4% and 6% per annum. However as of the most recent data that trading pattern has been breached with momentum falling to +3.2% as a consequence of outright falls in US house prices over the past 3 months. Therefore given the trend trajectory it is highly probable that US house prices are now trending towards 0% house price inflation and may even briefly go negative, which I am sure will send alarm bells ringing at the Fed, as it would fear that its banking brethren are about to feel some pain, and we all know what happens when the banks start to feel pain!

So at this point I am discounting negative house prices, apart from perhaps a minor temporary dip below zero to say -0.3%. Nevertheless it does appear that US house prices in momentum terms are going to have a rough 2019, and will be lucky to end the year with a net gain, though given that this is a BULL MARKET probability should favour another positive year for US house prices, just that its not going to be what people have grown accustomed to. perhaps just a 1.5% gain by the end of 2019.

What about 2020?

So 2019 will in effect be a correction against the trend. which implies that 2020 should see a resumption of the trend and thus a return to the momentum trading range of +4% to +6%. With probability favouring towards the lower end of the range, we may even see an end of year dip in momentum to below 4% say around +3.8%

This is the second in a series of analysis that concludes in a new multi-year trend forecast for US house prices that seeks to replicate the accuracy of my last US House Prices trend forecast.

12 Jan 2013 - U.S. Housing Real Estate Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2013 to 2016)

US House Prices Forecast Conclusion - As you read this, the embryonic nominal bull market of 2012 is morphing into a real terms bull market of 2013, with each subsequent year expected to result in an accelerating multi-year trend that will likely see average prices rise by over 30% by early 2016, which translates into a precise house prices forecast based on the most recent Case-Shiller House Price Index (CSXR) of 158.8 (Oct 2012 - released 26th Dec 2012) targeting a rise to 207 by early 2016 (+30.4%).

And here's how the US house prices trend forecast concluded early 2016, resulting in only a -2.5% deviation against the forecast so proving remarkably accurate, as had my preceding forecast during the bear market.

Which brings is to the present. Where despite all of the mainstream media noise and the usual perma doom mantra, the US housing bull market has continued to rage on upwards all the way to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS!

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

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US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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