Category: Stock Markets 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, October 05, 2020
Monitoring the SPX Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
I trade for myself and my members. The people who use the service know what to expect, but from new members I do get some questions about how often I trade, what kind of monthly returns do I expect, etc. Normal questions to ask, but they are also the wrong questions as well. Many of you have been conditioned to think this way- just as some of you may think that indicators are necessary for trading. Feeling the necessity to trade is not good for your performance, period. Instead of calling me a professional trader, I could just as easily be called a professional waiter. I go through what may seem like long periods of time of doing nothing, but then may place more trades in 2 weeks than I did the prior month. My customers benefit from this patience- but they have to get over the idea that something has to always be ‘happening’, or that you need X amount per day/week/month, etc. The performance will take care of itself if you do things the right way, which leads to the current form of stasis in the SPX.
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Saturday, October 03, 2020
Stock Market Massive Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Is Above Critical Support – Will It Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups.
- Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.
- If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish.
Critical Support on the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level. The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential momentum base. My advanced price modeling systems and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs (originating from the 2009 bottom) have clearly identified this area as a critical resistance/support zone.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
The Prospects of the Rocky S&P 500 Stock Market Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Quite an eventful period since the last Stock Trading Alert on Sep 11 – stocks rose both on Sep 14 and 15, validating the short-term bullish outlook presented in the said Alert. Next, the S&P 500 made two downswings before rebounding from the 3200 level proximity on Sep 24. Friday's session brought us a daily upswing, and so did Monday. Where does yesterday's stumble fit in?
Volatility has been moving generally lower after making a lower high days ago. Technology plunged but didn't make a new low on Thursday. Otherwise, there have been few sectoral bright spots, with financials and energy still looking precarious. On the bright side, consumer discretionaries, utilities and consumer staples (the latter two are defensives) have held up reasonably well – better than healthcare.
But what moved the markets when it comes to headlines? Political uncertainties remain, the first presidential debate is over, and there is still no stimulus bill, while corona is getting worse overseas. New lockdowns are hanging in the air, with the U.K. and Israel leading the way. Then, the Fed hasn't done all that much lately, leaving the credit markets relatively unfazed. Continuing claims are trending lower only painfully slowly, and U.S. tensions with China haven't seen a turnaround.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
Global Stock Markets: Keep Your Eye on This Remarkable "Divergence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Incredibly, the Stoxx 600 is lower today than it was in March 2000
As you probably know, a "divergence" occurs when one financial market behaves differently from a related financial market.
Such occurrences often portend trend changes, albeit, divergences may stretch out for months before a trend change occurs.
Remarkably, one global divergence has been unfolding for more than 20 years!
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Bears Fumbled, Let's See Whether Bulls Can Score / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Last week was mostly a downtrend week from Monday-Thursday with lower highs and lower lows. The bears needed to close Friday at the lows or near the lows in order to retain momentum heading into this week. But Friday morning, the lower lows opportunity was immediately squashed with a V-shape reversal back into the 3337, and then the rest of the day was spent grinding higher because short-term bears were trapped, so the opposing side was running into the 3268/3285 next key levels.
The main takeaway heading into this week is whether 3330-3350 key resistance region on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) can formulate the next daily lower highs, or whether the temporary bottom from last week is turning into more of a concrete bottom for the bigger picture. This is the neutral ground territory given the key battleground being established with the current backtest into the 3330s trending daily 20EMA resistance alongside 38.2% fib retracement and the prior (SHTF) shit hits the fan level of 3350.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress until mid to late-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, September 28, 2020
Is The Stock Market Dow Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The Transportation Index, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.
- Classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal “Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern” setting up.
- We may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.
The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months. Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart). Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
Will Next SPX Cycle Be Directional Opposite Of March-September? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Typically exhibiting a 100 to 110 trading day cycle from low to low, the S&P 500's cycle low on March 23 was actually 117 days after the prior cycle bottom in October 2019.
The 117-day cycle that hit its low on March 23 initiated a new cycle that -- owing to massive Federal Reserve liquidity injection -- climbed relentlessly for 114 days into the September 2 all-time high at 3588.11.
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Thursday, September 24, 2020
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as an inside/range day per expectations given Monday’s temporary bottom context. Essentially, price action formed an intraday double top after the RTH open and then bottomed out by 11AM in order to grind up towards 3300 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the rest of the time. The overall range was 3309.5-3256.50 including overnight globex hours.
The main takeaway remains the same as short-term trend on the daily chart remains bearish and this is still treated as a deadcat bounce until further evidence. Today is an important day for bears to turn things around given the context and where price action is hovering just below some key resistance levels such as 3326/3350. Make or break sort of playbook as we’ll be stalking for a southbound train ride soon unless proven otherwise.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell-off.
- Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short-term correction or the start of a downtrend.
- Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.
- Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.
US and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations. The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all-time highs again. My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not organic. The US Fed has spewed capital into the markets and speculative traders piled into the “excess phase” of the market to drive price levels higher. Take a moment to review these recent research posts to learn more:
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
With the market dropping two days in a row at the end of this past week, many were scratching their heads as to the reason for the decline. Yet, no clear reason was to be found.
In fact, this past week, the Fed just came out with yet another pronouncement as to how they intend to hold rates at near zero for the next three years.
Did you hear that folks? They intend to hold rates near zero for the next three years, especially as the stock market has recently struck new all-time highs. So, there is absolutely no question in my mind that the Fed is placing itself into a hole from which it will never be able to climb out. But, I will leave that topic for a different article.
In the meantime, for all of you Fed-followers, not only did they state their intentions to keep rates near zero for the next three years, but they even significantly increased their buying this past week to $68 billion in open market operations.
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Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
You've probably heard the phrase, "leading economic indicators."
In the U.S., they refer to a core set of data points, including the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, employment, manufacturing activity, housing starts and consumer confidence.
But, interestingly, the most important economic indicator is usually not referred to as such, and it's none other than the stock market itself.
That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
The United Floor in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Doug_Wakefield
If you have pondered HOW stock markets could act like they were totally ignoring everything that has happened since the first of the year, let me share a few thoughts and pictures with you.
First, this is a picture of the Dow as it closed last Friday. This is the stock index most people refer to as “the market” when discussing stocks climbing or falling.
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Friday, September 18, 2020
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The S&P 500 has jumped over 50 percent since the March low. All within six months. This is the fastest rebound within half a year that the index has made since the start of the bull market in 2009. Is it any surprise that the benchmark index now appears vulnerable to a pull back?
Since the start of the 11-year bull advance, the average pull back has equaled about 17.0 percent. When the last correction in March 2020 is added to the list, the percent moves up to 19.7 percent (Chart 1).
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Friday, September 18, 2020
Overvalued Stocks Head into the Bunker / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them.However, what it cannot do, nor can anyone else, is anticipate every short-term selloff in stocks. While the IDEC strategy protects and profits from bear markets, it also tends to soften the blow from short-term selloffs and prevents us from panicking at the bottom of every brief correction. This was the case in the latest plunge that started on September 3rd and lasted just three brutal days.
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Thursday, September 17, 2020
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Although our modeling systems have recently switched into Bullish Trending mode, we are still very cautious of a Bull Trap pattern.
- Bearish technical divergences between price and RSI with an election 50+ days away indicates market weakness and money rotating out of FAANG stocks. FAANGs are at make or break levels – it’s time to act not react.
- 11% to 22% price rotation ranges are in play – are you ready?
My research team recently highlighted the current market trend setup over the past few weeks as cautiously bullish while watching for a potential Bull-Trap setup. We have been warning our followers of the risks associated with a Presidential election year event as well as the continued disconnect between the market rally and the real-world economy. These next few days and weeks will make or break the markets so we encourage you to pay attention to this article.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Over the past 28 years, the SPY has gained an average of 3.45% in 15 of those years; it has fallen by 6.42% in the other 13 years.
- The critical support level for SPY is 332.85. If the SPY finds support at this level then you can expect continued, moderate price increases.
- Prepare for a moderate increase in volatility for the rest of September – watch the VIX.
My research team and I have been pouring over the charts in an effort to attempt to identify any support or weakness related to the increase in volatility over the past 7+ trading days. The VIX is currently at 29.71 after reaching a high of 38.28. We believe the increased price volatility is here to stay – at least through the end of 2020. This means skilled technical traders should prepare for some potentially large and aggressive price swings over the next few weeks and months.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The bulls responded with an upswing, which I saw as probable to happen. Is the sharp correction over now? Thus far, my answer remains the same as yesterday – in terms of prices, the worst is likely behind us, in terms of time, we have a way to go still.
So, what about the key juncture stocks are at? Let's get and feel the pulse via a few selected charts.
As for narratives, the tensions around China are back in the spotlight. Otherwise, my yesterday's comments still apply:
(…) Unless the Democrats raise up a notch their existing calls for Biden not to concede defeat under any circumstances, unless rioting ramps up, unless the Fed takes away the punch bowl, and finally unless Americans happily march into another lockdown that who knows when it would really end and on what terms (Cuomo's conditions serve as a great, sorry, terrible example), the stock bull run can go on in September before meeting the October headwinds.
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