Category: Stock Markets 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
Another Stock Market Short-term Dip Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX reaches ~ 4150.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, January 24, 2021
Stock Market: Why You Should Prepare for a Jump in Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
This volatility indicator "has made a series of higher lows" -- and it's not a good sign
Stock market volatility is like a roller-coaster ride -- extreme ups and downs.
However, unlike thrill-seeking roller-coaster riders who often rise from their seats after the ride with a smile, investors often exit with a frown.
That's because extreme volatility after a stock rally often ends with prices much lower.
Having said that, many investors -- even professionals -- do not anticipate a jump in volatility right now.
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Friday, January 01, 2021
Covid-19, SARS. Swine Flu. All 3 Were a Stock Market Screaming "Buy!" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Let's take a moment to update you on the relationship between COVID-19 and emerging market stocks. Earlier this year, our publications at Elliott Wave International showed that infectious disease epidemics tend to occur toward the end of bear markets. We cited such examples as SARS, swine flu, and COVID-19, which spread toward the end of major declines in the MSEI Emerging Markets Index.
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Thursday, December 31, 2020
Stock Market Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest A Major Peak in Early April 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
W.D. Gann mastered price trends (angles/slope) and time in relation to predicting future price trends and peaks/troughs. Over the years, my team and I have done some research related to W.D. Gann’s theories and have come to a simple understanding of some of these concepts. In this article, we will review his primary theory that past price trends may help to predict future price peaks using angles/slopes and time factors.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Stock Market New All Time Highs Through the Prism of AI / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare that as I speak is hitting new highs in the US and fast worsening second peaks across Europe. However, much as was for the March crash, the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon some 5 years ago, though the number is always expanding as AI encroaches on every aspect of our lives which is why my focus is on core AI itself rather than derivatives of AI.
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Monday, December 28, 2020
Stock Market Congestion Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, December 27, 2020
Stock Market Trends Fortecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last year, I published a ‘What To Expect In 2020’ article that everyone seemed to enjoy. We published this article to help investors and traders prepare for what we believed was going to be an incredibly volatile 2020. Last year our conclusions was:
“Be prepared for a surprising spike in volatility in early 2020 with a moderately strong potential for an early 2020 downside price rotation which prompts a new price trend and possibly an early test of support (near 280 on the SPY chart). 2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled traders – get ready for some incredible price action. “
Our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system has been calling big and unusual market price trends many months in advance over the past 3+ years. Some of the biggest trends the ADL predicted very accurately was the 2017~2018 rally in Gold and the 2019 collapse in Crude Oil.
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Friday, December 25, 2020
Stock Market Dow Quick Take / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My pre election forecast was for a relatively mild sideways trend into the end of the year awaiting a stream vaccine good news during January 2021.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Seeing Stock Market New Highs Through the Prism of AI / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare that as I speak is hitting new highs in the US and fast worsening second peaks across Europe. However, much as was for the March crash, the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon some 5 years ago, though the number is always expanding as AI encroaches on every aspect of our lives which is why my focus is on core AI itself rather than derivatives of AI.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Final Test For The Stock Market Before Year End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
For the almost decade that I have been writing publicly, I have implored you to recognize the importance of market sentiment in determining the direction and turning points in the market.
Yet, I still shake my head when I read articles, or even the comment section to my own articles, as most analysis and comments are so hyper-focused on what the news or other factors will do to the market. And, no matter how many times the market moves opposite to those expectations, the analyst or commenter seems to develop selective amnesia, as they continue on their merry way to yet again analyze the market based upon the same failed perspectives.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
End-of-Year Review: Your free issue of EWI’s Financial Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
For investors worldwide – including you, maybe -- the stock market rallies since March have been one of the biggest head-scratchers of a very head-scratching 2020.
Stocks rallied despite the raging pandemic; despite the shutdowns; despite skyrocketing unemployment and huge economic damage... despite, despite, despite.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Stock Market Into 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
Markets continue to show no signs of concern as new highs develop
in Q4 and bullish trends hold (Chart 1). The S&P 500 recently posted a new all-time high of 3588.11 and the TSX is retested an all-time high near 18,000.
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
Custom Index Charts Suggest US Stock Market Ready For A Pause / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel – attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2020
Markets Rallying on Vaccine Hopes, but Higher Taxes and Inflation Loom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
For months, including this past week, markets have rallied on hopes for a vaccine and more stimulus – even as the real economy is suffering under expanding virus restrictions and as a stimulus deal keeps getting thwarted by partisans in Washington.
Negative divergences are showing up, with market momentum waning and volume thinning in the major averages.
Another threat markets seem to be overlooking – at least for now – is that of tax hikes under an incoming Joe Biden administration.
More on that in a moment. But first, let’s review this week’s price moves in metals markets.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2020
February 2020 COVID Breakdown Gap Acting As Support For Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The difference in the price setup of the initial February COVID-19 downside price gap on the INDU (Dow Jones Industrial Average) vs. the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) clearly shows how this previous gap in price is acting as a critical support level for the current price rally. When the downside price gap first started, near February 25th, 2020, technical traders immediately identified this “impulse gap” as an important price structure to watch in the future. As the US stock markets recovered in late August/September, price levels began to attempt to “fill the gap” on the INDU chart. On the SPY chart in August/September, prices filled the gap then rallied to new highs – initiating a new upside price rally attempt.
My team and I believe these gap levels on the INDU and SPY currently represent a critical horizontal support level for both the INDU and the SPY. This gap range is now acting like a “hard floor” in price that should be watched by all traders. We will examine these setups on the charts below.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into January 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 8 months recovered to a new all time high north of Dow 30,000!
This is the final part of a series of in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
A Fresh Perspective on Why Stock Market Continues to Defy News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Why a "disappointing" jobs report did not send stock prices lower
Many market observers assume that the news is the main factor in governing the stock market's trend.
Yet, Elliott Wave International has shown time and again that there's simply no evidence to support this widespread assumption.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 13, 2020
Copper & Bonds Telegraphed the 2020 COVID Stock Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020. T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020. Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020.
My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand” failure, while the breakout in Bonds suggests risks are elevating. This is something we should continue to watch for in the future as Copper and Bond prices typically move before the US stock market begins to react.
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Sunday, December 13, 2020
Yes, "Active Stock Investment Managers" DO Behave Like the "Crowd" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
...and that's not a good thing
When people hear the phrase "investing crowd," they tend to think of Main Street investors. Usually dipping their toe in the water after the trend has been underway for quite some time, they are typically seen as the "more cautious" types than Wall Street pros.
Of course, there is a flip side to that "cautiousness": The "investing crowd" is known for panic-selling near market bottoms and going "all in" near major market tops.
What's more, Main Street investors are not alone in their "crowd" behavior. It actually permeates most of the investment world, including the professionals.
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