Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).
Gold Silver Ratio
The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
This Time is Different for Gold - Today vs. 2012 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold bugs will remember 2012 as the last year of hope that gold was still in its bull cycle as it managed to hold key support around 1550 into year end. It should not be lost on us that here into year-end 2019 gold’s new bull cycle has risen to, and logically halted at, the very same former support that is now important resistance to a new bull market.
We anticipated this resistance in the summer, and although the up-turning Semi cycle of 2013 was logical to gold’s demise 7 years ago, that is no longer the case as Semiconductor leadership takes a new leg up in 2019. Why? Well, let’s explore just a few of the differences between then and now.
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Sunday, November 24, 2019
Is Another Sharp Precious Metals Sector Down-Leg Imminent? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the data and answers the question. The precious metals sector has been on the defensive since gold's COTs reached extreme readings in August, and silver broke down from its parabolic uptrend in September. Many think that the sector correction has now run its course, but has it? That is the question that this update is intended to answer.
On gold's latest six-month chart we can see the correction in force from the start of September and how it has unwound its earlier overbought condition and brought it back to a support level. Given the bullish alignment of moving averages, which shows the existence of a larger uptrend, many are concluding that all this will be sufficient to get it moving north again from here. However, there are several bearish factors in play, which suggest that instead we are likely to see another sharp drop before this corrective phase is done. The quite sharp drop early this month was on heavy volume, and the feeble rally of the past week or so looks like a countertrend rally—a bear flag—that will lead to another sharp down-leg very soon. This will break gold out of the channel shown and take the price to our downside objective in the $1,380–$1400 area.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Here’s Why You Must Protect Yourself Outside the Financial System… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's good to have you on as always and we appreciate the time today. How are you?
David Morgan: Mike, I'm well. Thank you for having me.
Mike Gleason: Well, we've had a significant correction in precious metals prices, especially in silver, and I wanted to get your thoughts on that to start out here. To us, it looked like the bullion banks sold futures contracts to lots of speculators who got interested in metals. Then as often happens, the speculators got taken out to the woodshed. However, open interest appears to still be rising. We would have expected that to fall after a couple weeks of lower prices and pain pushing those longs out of the market, so maybe something else is going on here. What do you make of the recent price correction and where do you think the markets might be headed in the short term? Do you think the selling might be over for now?
Friday, November 22, 2019
Why You Should “Follow the Money” on The Yellow (and Silver) Brick Road / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Since the Federal Reserve detached the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, the world's central bankers – with the Fed leading the charge, have flooded the world with fiat currency to the point of diminishing its purchasing power to shadow status.
A common belief during the early decades of the former Soviet Union's rise after 1917 was that, according to Marxist-Leninist theory, the West and capitalism would either self-destruct, or be "buried" by the superior economic platform being constructed for the proletariat by the USSR, and later Communist China.
But even the Great Depression, which in the West lasted from the Crash of 1929, and arguably into WWII, failed to do the trick.
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Department of Justice prosecutors charged a sixth JPMorgan executive for cheating in the precious metals markets.
Jeffrey Ruffo stands accused of racketeering and spoofing metals prices from 2008 - 2016, along with other crimes including conspiracy to commit wire fraud.
The indictment outlines nearly a decade spent coordinating with other traders in JPMorgan’s precious metals department to rig prices. The activity includes thousands of fraudulent trades placed for two purposes.
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In Friday’s article, we wrote that what comes up must correct and gold has indeed shown to be in a corrective mode. We also wrote that the yellow metal was unlikely to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the previous upswing and while gold moved to this level earlier today, it didn’t break below it. At least not in any significant way – the few cents below this level doesn’t really count. Let’s take a closer look at gold’s overnight chart to see what the decline means.
Sunday, November 17, 2019
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In a key policy shift, the ECB has recently introduced tiered system of interest rates. This news isn’t of interest only to the banks keeping their reserves at the ECB. In today’s article, you’ll learn about the new instrument of monetary policy, and find out what it implies for the gold market.
If you think that monetary policy in the United States is crazy, you are right. But in Europe, it is even stranger (and in Japan, it is really insane). As you probably remember, in September, the ECB introduced a package of measures to ease monetary policy further in the face of sluggish economic growth and subdued inflation. In particular, the Governing Council resumed quantitative easing (the bank will be purchasing €20 billion of assets monthly), eased the conditions for TLTRO operations, strengthened the forward guidance strategy, and – the crème de la crème – cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50 percent, as the chart below shows. The ECB used, of course, all these instruments already in the past. What is really new is the introduction of the tiering system. How does it work and what could be its consequences for the euro area economy and gold prices?
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Sunday, November 17, 2019
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Impeachment circus lows and stock market highs dominated the news cycle this week, and precious metals are quietly attempting a recovery.
Bulls still have some work to do to repair the technical damage inflicted on both metals during last week’s selling. Gold and silver still face some overhead resistance and the potential for concentrated short selling by financial institutions in the futures markets.
Significant price bottoms are usually reached after the commercial sellers force the speculative longs to capitulate. We certainly saw some of that last week. Whether there is one final washout ahead remains to be seen.
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Sunday, November 17, 2019
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
The gold price bottomed in late 2015 around $1,050 per ounce. It has since advanced to a high of $1,555 in early September, followed by a pullback to the current price of $1,470. Gold is in a well-defined uptrend channel with higher lows and recently higher highs. The breakout above $1,360 this summer was significant and we have seen follow-through buying. The $420 move in the price of gold from the bottom in late 2015 represents a gain of 40% in just under four years.
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Friday, November 15, 2019
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
1. Gold’s annual returns 2000 to present
In the February edition of this newsletter, we ran an article under the headline: Will 2019 be the year of the big breakout for gold? Though we would not characterize gold’s move to the upside so far this year as ‘the big breakout,’ 2019 has been the best year for gold since 2010 even with the recent correction taken into account. Back in September when the price gold reached $1550 per ounce – up almost 22% on the year – 2019 was looking more like a breakout year. Now with the move back to the $1460 level, the market mood has become more restrained. As it is, gold is up 15 of the last 19 years and still up 14.45% so far this year.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
With gold and silver prices having tumbled, sector expert Michael Ballanger outlines how he will weather the storm.
"People everywhere are being fed propaganda, lies and false stimuli of all kinds, but deep in their hearts, deep in their instincts, they know something is wrong."—G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island
My usual weekend missive was mildly delayed for a very good reason; I spent most of Friday evening and Saturday morning formulating this wonderfully verbose theory on why the Fed's sudden shift from "quantitative tightening" to "massive stimulus" had such a negative effect on yields, with an associated and very sharp spillover into my beloved precious metals.
Having read it over several dozen times, I then began mulling over the various charts that I post from time to time and quickly decided to "bin it," because my readers no longer wish to hear about the COT report or the "cartel" or the "egregious open interest" or "fraudulent bullion banks." I can't state this forcefully enough: We have all seen this before way too many times.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
The Case for a Silver Price Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yes, you read that right. Despite all the bearish developments that we described in the previous analyses, and despite myriads of bearish factors that remain in place for the following months, it seems that the white metal is about to rally. Gold, and mining stocks could move higher as well, and we’ll move to that shortly. For now, let’s talk silver.
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Our summary of the current situation in the precious metals is not going to differ much from what we wrote yesterday, and the reason is simple. The decline in gold, silver, and miners is developing just as we’ve been expecting it to. Most importantly, gold has just confirmed its breakdown and everything that we reported on gold’s outlook and price targets just got a huge confirmation.
Let’s take a look at what gold, silver, and mining stocks did in the last couple of days.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09. The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.
We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19. Our intent was to highlight the new price high similarities as well as the price rotation similarities between the two critical peaks in market price. We are terming the current market a “Zombie-land” because it appears global investors are somewhat brain-dead as to the total risks that are setting up in the global markets right now. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Gold Price Is Likely Approaching A Local Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
The metals market is an extremely emotional one. The highs and lows you see with metals traders are evident at each of the extremes. I think we are now approaching another extreme.
Several months ago, back in early June, I notified those willing to listen that gold was preparing to “take off like a rocket-ship.” To my members of ElliottWaveTrader.net, I outlined my expectations for a strong rally to the 137 region, followed by a continued move to the 143/45 region before we see a larger consolidation. Thus far, the market has been reacting as generally expected.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Gold Retest Coming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold and silver stocks have held up decently during the correction in precious metals, which is now in its 3rd month. However, as we mentioned last week, the bugaboo has been the relatively high net speculative position in Gold, which has not changed much despite recent weakness in the sector.
Technically Gold cracked last week and the downside momentum coupled with the relatively high net spec position argues that Gold is headed for a retest of the summer breakout.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Global central banks have been pumping the liquidity spigots 24/7 and the US Fed is starting to go that way as well. This during a time of supposed economic splendor and fruitfulness (it is these contradictions that are the windows into a ginned up, leveraged economy dependent on monetary policy) while the S&P 500 breaks through the bull turnstile to blue sky.