Category: Gold and Silver 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 15, 2018
For Gold, It's Goldilocks Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, delve into the question of whether inflation is good for gold.
Is inflation good for gold? It depends. If inflation provokes a hawkish Fed to raise rates faster than inflation, not so much. But if the Fed is worried about the stock and bond markets and therefore won't raise rates fast enough to keep pace with inflation, that's good for gold. And that's where we seem to be now.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
This Chart Says Gold Is Beginning a Long-Term Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldSilver
There aren’t many investment scenarios you can point to with any degree of certainty and say, “This asset is going to rise.” Saying so is usually fraught with risk, even if in hindsight it turns out to have been an accurate call.
But there are certainly times when you can see that the odds are heavily stacked in your favor. And we have one of those potential scenarios right now in gold.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
We live in very specific times. Getting a “like” on a post or picture becomes a necessary daily activity and means of self-validation. Not “liking” something that others posted or that is massively “liked” like may be frowned upon or even viewed as being disrespectful. Plus, it seems that no matter what you do, everyone gets offended very easily. When did honesty, independence and common-sense stop being virtues?
When it comes to gold investments and gold investment analysis, it’s surprisingly similar. You either like gold and think that it’s going higher right away or you’re “one of them”. “Them” can be anyone who tries to manipulate gold or silver prices, “banksters”, or some kind of unknown enemy. “Analyst’s” goal is often no longer to be as objective as possible and to provide as good and as unbiased analysis as possible, but to simply be cheering for gold and provide as many bullish signals as possible regardless of what one really thinks about them. The above may seem pleasant to readers, but it’s not really in their best interest. In order to make the most of any upswing, it’s best to enter the market as low as possible and to exit relatively close to the top. What happens before a price is as low as possible? It declines. Why would something like that (along with those describing it) be hated by gold investors? It makes no sense, but yet, it’s often the case.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Gold Key Change That Nobody Talks About / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, everyone focused on the stock market sell-off. Reasonably enough, given the pace of the declines. But the analysts failed to pay enough attention to the very important shift. That change may be more important than Trump’s victory in the presidential election. Will the critical switch make gold shine – or dull?
Three Important Legacies of Yellen’s Fed Tenure
A crucial change is behind us. Powell is the new boss. Yellen is out. For better or worse, she doesn’t serve as the Fed Chair any longer. Although economists rated Yellen’s tenure very highly, President Trump didn’t renominate her for the position. Rightly or not? We don’t care. Let journalists debate endlessly – we will analyze the crucial Yellen’s imprints on the Fed, which could affect the gold market in the future.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Gold Mining Stocks Have Been The Most Frustrating Trade For The Last Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. But, after last week’s break down below the December 2017 low, the set up will have to be resurrected first in the coming months.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It was a rough week for investors in stocks and stocks of all kinds. The S&P 500 lost 5%. Emerging Markets also lost 5%. Gold Stocks, which had weakened before the broader equity market have been hit hard. They (GDX, GDXJ) also lost 5% last week. The HUI Gold Bugs Index (which excludes royalty companies unlike GDX) lost 7%. After a strong start to the year, gold stocks have essentially given back all their gains. Nevertheless, we remain extremely optimistic on gold stocks over the next 12-18 months as trends in the economy and stock market should begin to support Gold after the second quarter.
Friday, February 09, 2018
Mars and Mercury Decide the Fate of the U.S. Dollar and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. dollar has been bleeding recently, despite all the Fed’s tightening efforts and the passage of Trump’s tax cuts. An accelerating economy, rising interest rates and pro-growth reforms should logically drive the value of the American currency. But they didn’t.
Given the strong negative correlation between the greenback and gold, finding the cause behind the dollar’s wounds is highly critical. The most common explanation among analysts is Trump the Destroyer. It shouldn’t be surprising, as the U.S. President is known for his passion for trade protectionism. He also explicitly favors the weak currency to help the exporters. So maybe Trump just got what he wanted?
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Thursday, February 08, 2018
Peak Gold: 2017 Supply Flat As China Output Falls By 9% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– China gold production falls by 9% to 420.5t in 2017
– Chinese gold demand rose 4% to 953.3t in same period
– China is largest producer and accounts for 15% of global gold production
– China does not export gold. Increasing foreign gold acquisitions to meet demand
– Global gold production flat – 3,269t in ’17 from 3,263t in ’16, smallest increase since ’08
– Peak Gold is here: supply set to fall gradually while global demand remains robust
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Gold Nearing Cycle Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jim_Curry
In terms of time, a short-term secondary low is due for Gold here in the current timeframe, originally projected for the February 7th date, but with the normal plus or minus variance of a day or two in either direction. The current decline comes as a result of the 10, 20 and 34-day cycles, each of which have been pointing south off the 1370 swing top - and with the combination of the same at or into normal bottoming territory.
The chart below shows the smallest of the above waves - the nominal 10-day cycle - which is currently 13 days along from its last labeled trough, and thus is looking for a short-term bottom:
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Will Hawkish Fed and Strong Payrolls Blow Out Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
At the end of last week, gold encountered a couple of headwinds. Will they topple the yellow metal?
First Gust of Wind: Fed
As we predicted, the last FOMC meeting turned out to be more hawkish than expected. On January 30, we wrote:
(…) the Fed has its own meeting this week. We could see a hawkish strike, especially that it will be the last Yellen’s meeting and she has nothing to lose. The changing composition of the policy committee could also point to a more aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2018. If that happens, the U.S. dollar may catch its breath, which would exert downward pressure on gold prices.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold Rises As Global Stocks Plunge and Bitcoin Crashes 70% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold gains 0.6% in USD and surges 1.7% in euros and pounds
– European stocks fall more than 3% at the open after sharp falls in Asia
– DJIA falls 1,175 points, S&P 500 down 4.1% and Nikkei plummets 4.7%
– Gold rises from $1,330 to $1,342, £942 to £960 and €1,067 to €1,085 /oz
– Bitcoin crashes another 10% and has now plummeted by 70% to below $6,000
– Increased risk aversion will drive safe haven demand for gold as its hedging properties are appreciated again
Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold, U.S. Dollar, And Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold is all the rage right now. And some apparently think that if you aren’t outright ‘bullish’ you are unaware or unintelligent.
Those who ply the trade for a living (i.e. advisors, investors, traders, writers) all seem to be on the same page. Even fundamentalists and technical analysts are teammates. Sort of.
The U.S. dollar is in the headlines, so naturally, most of the explanations and expectations for gold’s ‘big move’ center on U.S. dollar weakness. And they should. But some additional explanation is necessary. Some say that a weaker U.S. dollar ’causes’ a higher gold price. That is like saying that lower interest rates cause higher bond prices. That’s not the way it works.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold Takes Center-stage in Dollar Scare / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Trump-Mnuchin qualifiers in dollar statements tell all
“While it’s [a strong dollar] described as a desirable and intended thing, it might not be a choice. The size of dollar holdings of reserves (in dollar-denominated debt) and the dollar’s role as the dominant world currency are anachronisms and large relative to what one would want to hold to be balanced, so rebalancings should be expected over time, especially when U.S. dollar bonds look unattractive and trade tensions with dollar creditors intensify.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Securities
Much is made of the direct inverse correlation between gold and the dollar, but acknowledging that relationship does not really get us anywhere. The bigger question is whether or not the dollar will continue to track lower as it has over the past 18 months or will it suddenly reverse course and head higher.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Silver and Mining Stocks Fresh New 2018 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver was just breaking to new highs, gold stocks (HUI) were above the 205 level and gold was at levels not seen since August 2016. Gold and silver bulls were cheering. They are not cheering anymore. Even though the above was the case just several days ago, it was all invalidated, just like we expected it to be. Based on what happened on Friday, silver and mining stocks are at their new 2018 lows and their entire 2018 performance is a one huge bearish reversal. Where will precious metals in the following weeks?
Lower. Likely much lower.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Will the Great Unwind Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the August 2017 edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the hawkish turn among major central banks. We pointed out that “Europe has recently been among the most surprising positive economic regions in the world”, which should induce the ECB to taper its quantitative easing program in the fall, supporting both the EUR/USD exchange rate and the price of gold. This is exactly what happened. The dollar lost more than 3 percent in 2018 against the euro, while gold jumped above $1,350 (as of January 25). As we noted in the previous edition of the Market Overview, “the beginning of the year is usually a good period for the gold prices.”
Saturday, February 03, 2018
What’s Behind the Rising Gold and Treasury Bond Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Three trends I’ve been forecasting have been happening in the last year:
- The strong Trump rally.
- Rising 10-year Treasury bond yields.
- And rising gold prices.
They’re all related to late stage inflation and the expected tax cuts, which have materialized.
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Friday, February 02, 2018
Gold Price February Correction to Below $1300 - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.
Thursday, February 01, 2018
Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.
Thursday, February 01, 2018
2018 Gold Price Forecast and Predictions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldSilver
Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables and dynamics, that even the most educated guess almost always ends up wrong.
Further, some forecasts base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation).
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