Category: Gold and Silver 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Gold Hits Our $1300 Price Target – What Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Early trading on January 4, 2019, saw Gold reach just above $1300 per ounce – confirming our price target from our research and posts on November 24, 2018. The importance of this move cannot be under-estimated. Traders and investors need to understand the recent rally in the metals markets are attempting to alert us that FEAR is starting to re-enter the market and that 2019 could start the year off with some extended volatility.
Our research has shown that Gold will likely rotate between $1270~1315 over the next 30~60 days before attempting to begin another rally. Our next upside price target is near $1500. We will continue to post articles to help everyone understand when and how this move will happen. We expect Gold to rotate near the $1300 level for at least another 30 days before attempting another price rally.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold acts as hedge in 2018 – up 2.7% and 3.8% in euros and pounds (see tables & charts)
– Stocks fall sharply – S&P500, FTSE & Euro Stoxx 5o fall 6.25%, 12.5% & 15% respectively
– Worst year for most international equity indices since 2008
– Sharp falls in economically sensitive commodities: oil (WTI), gasoline and lumber down 24.2%, 27% & 23.8% respectively
– Volatility surges as seen in VIX rising over 110%
– Volatility continues in 2019 as stocks globally fall with Apple falling 8% overnight
– Gold and silver likely to outperform risk assets again in 2019 (see Outlook 2019 Podcast)
Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Gold’s Leading Indicators Looking Better / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Although yours truly has yet to completely jump on the bull bandwagon (which has revved up recently), I cannot ignore the positive fundamental and technical developments for precious metals.
On the fundamental side, the market is essentially pricing in no hikes for 2019 and the start of rate cuts in 2020. For Gold, that is a huge improvement from just a few months ago.
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Sunday, December 30, 2018
Cyclical Assets vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Cyclical Assets vs. Gold
In January of 2018 we noted a cyclical leader (Semiconductor Fab Equipment) in trouble: Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018.
We also ran a series of articles featuring the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (of the macro) in order to gauge a point when larger herds of investors would become aware of cyclical issues facing the global (including the US) economy. Each Amigo (SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Treasury yields and a flattening Yield Curve) would ride with the good times but signal an end to those good times when reaching destination (Amigos 1 & 2 got home but #3, the Yield Curve is still out there). Here is the latest Amigos status update from October: SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve.
Today I would like to stick with a cyclical macro view, but do so through a lens filtered by the ultimate counter-cyclical asset, gold. As market participants, we are lost if we do not have road maps. That is why we (NFTRH) gauged Semi Equipment vs. Semi (and Tech), the unified messages of the macro Amigo indicators and many other breadth and cyclical indicators along the way to safely guide us to Q4 2018, which has been a challenge for many, but business as usual for those of us who were prepared.
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Sunday, December 30, 2018
Gold, Silver, Bitcoin - Looking Back, Looking Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
This year has seen a lot of volatility in the financial markets, Bitcoin, precious metals and other commodities. Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors, takes a look back on the lessons he has learned, and also looks ahead to what 2019 may bring.
The Gold Report: Frank, thanks for joining us today. Let's start with what lessons you've learned from the markets in the past year.
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Sunday, December 30, 2018
Will Coins and Bars Save Gold 2019? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
There is a disconnection between paper and physical gold prices and the former has to catch up with the latter eventually. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about demand for gold coins and bars and find out whether it will save the yellow metal.
The best stories are about the conflict between good and evil, or light and dark. In the precious metals market, we also have such a narrative, or actually several variations on the theme. But one of the most popular thread is the ‘disconnection’ between paper and physical gold. The characters are clearly identified: paper market is the powerful Empire while the physical gold is Rebellion, which heroically fights a stronger and more vicious opponent.
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Friday, December 28, 2018
Can Gold Swim in a Crosscurrent? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell noticed some crosscurrents in the path of the US economy. Will it stay on the surface? And is gold a good swimmer?
Crosscurrents Cause Fewer Hikes
We hope that you enjoyed Christmas. As we promised last week, we will analyze the post-meeting Powell’s press conference today. The Fed Chair remained optimistic about the US economy, which “has continued to perform well.” However, “some crosscurrents have emerged.” Powell meant the moderation of global growth, increased financial market volatility, and tightened financial conditions. As a consequence, the Fed now sees only two instead of three hikes in 2019:
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Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Frank Holmes Predicts Gold Price Explosion to the Upside in “Blink of an Eye” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors joins me and shares why he believes this past quarter has been a very constructive and encouraging one for gold -- and he also gives us his outlook for the equity and metals markets in 2019. Don’t miss another great interview with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Heavy selling in the stock market this week is stimulating demand in the future markets for safe-haven assets, most notably precious metals.
Stocks plunged on the heels of another rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. The FOMC raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point and signaled it intends to hike two more times in 2019.
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Monday, December 24, 2018
Gold Price Trend Forecast Review and Stocks Brief / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a quick update of my Gold Price trend forecast.
My forecast conclusion as of early September was to expect the following trend for the Gold Price for the remainder of 2018
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Sunday, December 23, 2018
Silver Price Trend Forecest 2018 Review / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 1st in a series of 4 videos that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
Saturday, December 22, 2018
Stock Market Nearing Low as Gold Tests Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
As we’ve been saying, the stock market will have great influence on Gold. It has been easy to see in recent months.
The S&P 500 has cracked, losing both its 200-day and 400-day moving averages. Gold and gold stocks have benefitted and gained in recent months even with a stable to rising US Dollar.
The past 65 years of history shows us that in almost any context (but not all) the time between the Fed’s last rate hike and first rate cut is exactly when you want to buy gold stocks.
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Saturday, December 22, 2018
Forget the Noise, Follow the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the effects of the Federal Reserve Bank interest rate increase and plans for 2019.
"Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves."
Here are a couple of facts one needs to remember when attempting to decipher yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell:
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Saturday, December 22, 2018
Fed Gooses Gold, Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The dovish Federal Reserve lit a fire under gold and its miners’ stocks this week. As universally expected the FOMC hiked rates for the 9th time in this cycle. But it also lowered its 2019 rate-hike outlook bowing to the stock-market selloff. Traders dumped gold initially thinking that wasn’t dovish enough. But market reactions to the FOMC form over a couple days, and gold surged overnight. Its post-Fed rally has great potential.
Gold-futures speculators dominate gold’s short-term trading action. They punch way above their weight in capital terms thanks to the extreme leverage inherent in gold futures. This week, the minimum margin for trading each 100-ounce contract controlling $125,000 worth of gold at $1250 was just $3400! These traders can run crazy maximum leverage as high as 36.8x, compared to the stock markets’ legal limit of 2x.
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Friday, December 21, 2018
Will Miners Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The price of gold cannot decline and stay below the gold production costs. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the mining costs and find out whether they provide a floor for gold prices.
So if the central bank demand for gold is not able to boost the price, then maybe mines will help? We refer here to the popular narrative that the price of the yellow metal cannot decline below its cost of production. But do gold production costs really set a floor for bullion prices?
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Thursday, December 20, 2018
Will Gold Rally in January after the Fed Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
December as usual. Another Fed hike is behind us. Will we now see a rally in gold in January?
Fed Hiked But It Will Monitor Risks
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on December 18th-19th. In line with the expectations, the US central bank raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent (it was the ninth lift since 2015):
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Will Powell Turn Into Dove and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Tomorrow, the FOMC will publish its monetary policy statements and economic projections. How could they affect the gold market? And what about the recent developments in Europe?
FOMC Preview and Gold
The market awaits the monetary policy decision of the FOMC and its fresh economic projections. If the Committee surprises on the dovish (hawkish) side, gold will shine (struggle). Our bet is that – given the attitude of the new Board Governors, the stock market correction, and reduced forecast for global growth in the coming years – the December economic projections might be less optimistic than in September. It would be also in line with the previous December meetings when hawkish actions were accompanied by dovish signals.
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Monday, December 17, 2018
Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
Perception of gold as an investment is fundamentally flawed. No matter the detail behind the analysis, gold is not an investment.
investment…a thing that is worth buying because it may be profitable or useful in the future.
Lets suppose you are at the grocery store and you see that butter is on sale for $2.00 per pound. Normally you pay $3.00 per pound or more.
Since you use butter in your cooking and eating, and buy butter regularly, you place the butter in your cart and express thanks for such good fortune. But why not take advantage of the sale? You buy an additional one month supply and place it in your cart.
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Saturday, December 15, 2018
‘Hard’ Brexit Risk Sees Gold Gain In Euros and Pounds – Nears £1,000/oz & €1,100/oz / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
Gold was lower today in dollars but saw slight gains in pounds and euros. It was supported by increasing concerns about the likelihood of a ‘hard’ Brexit, about global economic growth and uncertainty around the Fed’s interest rate policies in 2019.
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Saturday, December 15, 2018
Will Central Bank Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Central banks’ purchases create a floor for gold prices. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the central banks’ demand for gold and find out whether it will save gold.
Gold is an important part of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. As of H1 2018, they hold about 34,000 tons of bullion worth $1.36 trillion, or 10.3 percent of the total reserves, according to the World Gold Council.
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Friday, December 14, 2018
Gold GDX Cycles from the January 2016 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: ElliottWaveForecast
EWF Lewis : Firstly, the GDX ETF was created in 2006. From there it bounced higher into the September 2011 highs. This not shown on the chart however the price trend was obviously up. The pullback lower into the January 2016 lows corrected the cycle from the all time highs. The bounce from the January 2016 lows was strong enough to suggest it was no longer pulling back lower. It ended that bullish cycle August 2016. I give Elliott Wave benefit of the doubt that was a lead diagonal up. The January 2016 low should hold in any further dip.
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