Category: Stock Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, July 11, 2016
SPX testing the Cycle Top Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is challenging the 2-hour Cycle Top at 2136.81 this morning. Indications are, we may see a probe higher at the open. Although it did not go above the 2134.72 high of May 20, 2015 on Friday, it may do so this morning.
Does that hurt the bearish case? Probably not. You will note that May 19 was exactly 8.6 years (3141.6 days) from the October 11, 2007 high. The time has arrived fro a change of trend. However, I believe that the central banks have been pushing against that change of trend. Thus we have the Orthodox Broadening Top. A move above the upper trendline, called a throw-over, does not invalidate the formation.
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Monday, July 11, 2016
Stocks VIX & SP500 Comparison of 2008 Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today I like to share my thoughts about the S&P 500 index, the volatility index, and what I believe will be the trigger/event which sends stock markets around the world to new multi-year lows.
While the charts shown here are very simple there is a lot of information behind the scenes that backup the analysis/predictions on the charts below.
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Monday, July 11, 2016
Stock Market Challenging the High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is near its all-time high
SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 is now challenging the 2135 high.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 10, 2016
Stock Market - INFLATION – DEFLATION / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
I listened to the debate between Rick Ackerman and Mike Shedlock on the Kereport today and I wanted to comment on the inflation side. We have a perfect example of two analysts locked into the deflationary crash scenario by what happened in 2009. Both are deflationists and both have been wrong all year long, and basically wrong since the bottom in 2009.
I’ll say it again: In a purely fiat system there is no level of debt that can’t be inflated away. We proved that in the 70’s when we inflated away the Vietnam war debt.
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Friday, July 08, 2016
Why Stock Market Investors Should Expect the Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: EWI
Read our forecast for a market rally in the wake of Brexit
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
Investors who jump on "sure things" in the stock market usually lick their wounds with regret.
The decision of British voters to leave the European Union appeared to represent low-hanging fruit to short sellers.
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Friday, July 08, 2016
Is the Stock Market Rally Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that SPX may be waiting for the Jobs Report tomorrow morning at 8:30 am to reveal its intent. This is my primary Wave structure for SPX. It follows an irregular Wave pattern that fits within the Orthodox Broadening Top. Although the Broadening Top allows for a probe to or beyond 2120.55, but does not require it. As it stands, Wave [v] of 5 is very nearly equal to Wave [i] of 5, satisfying a wave relationship and indicating a probable completion.
Friday, July 08, 2016
Stock Market Decent Comeback, Mixed, Consolidation Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a mixed session. The day started out with a pop to the upside, but they gave it back and then some, getting in the negative column by midday. They retested in the afternoon, making lower lows on the S&P 500, which was not confirmed by the Nasdaq 100. That resulted in a late rally back to finish mixed on the session.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 22.74 at 17,895.88, 70 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 1.83 at 2097.90, 9 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 14.88 at 4459.58, 21 points off its low.
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Friday, July 08, 2016
Why Stocks Bears Should be Scared / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Clif_Droke
The last year has been a scary time to be an investor. In 2015, the slowdown in China's economy caused undue apprehension to investors and contributed to a nausea-inducing rollercoaster ride which began last July and has continued until now.
By the end of 2015 low energy prices were taking a toll on the high yield debt market, which in turn catalyzed another stock market swoon. Although the decline wasn't severe, the January 2016 market panic ended with the biggest spike in bearish investor sentiment since the 2008 credit crash. This reflects the pronounced tendency among investors to panic at the slightest hint of danger, a spillover effect from the historic 2008 crisis.
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Thursday, July 07, 2016
SPX Below 2100, but is it Enough? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is beneath the 4.5 year trendline. The formation is irregular, so to be safe, we should use the lower trendline of the Broadening Diagonal as a trigger to go short. That appears to be at or just beneath 2090.00. There is always the possibility of using the trendline as a support to launch another algo orgy. Of course, the ultimate safety for the shorts appears to be beneath the 50-day Moving Average.
Thursday, July 07, 2016
Forget Shorting the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
The very beginning of a new intermediate cycle is the single most dangerous time to short stocks. The average gain is 6-8% in the first 12-18 days. Yet this is the time most retail traders want to sell short as they expect the market to turn back down immediately. When it fails to do so they end up losing money.
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Thursday, July 07, 2016
4 Risk Indicators Show Extreme Readings and a Huge Divergence in the Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: InvestingHaven
2016 is certainly the year where markets are behaving in an extreme fashion. Most recently, we have witnessed a mini-flash crash post-Brexit with a sharp V-shaped recovery, just in one week.
Our risk indicators have arrived at extreme levels. We pick out 4 fundamental risk indicators from our methodology which we discuss in this article. Apart from extreme readings our risk indicators also show an important divergence. In other words, markets arrived at a critical juncture and are ready to accelerate in the same direction or reverse their course.
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Thursday, July 07, 2016
Stock Market Unwinding... Rallying Back.... Waiting On The Right News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market spent a day and a half trying to fall enough to unwind those overbought, sixty-minute index charts. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are very overbought with RSI's intraday hitting the low 80's. Finally, we saw some selling, which allowed all of those index short-term charts to unwind their RSI's back in to the mid 40's. That was enough to start the move back up, but not enough to get the market exploding. Unwinding was clearly necessary. It's also healthier if you don't stay too overbought for too long. Get things unwound, which will allow for a better floor from which to move higher. Also, if you don't get too overbought it helps prevent negative divergences down the road.
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Thursday, July 07, 2016
SPX Finds Resistance at the Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to have been stopped by the 4.5-year trendline. This may be an ideal spot to add to short positions. The end of day activity may also be bearish, as institutions begin to sell in the final half hour.
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Wednesday, July 06, 2016
Stock Market Big Money Making Move is Right Around the Corner… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
The rally last week was likely end of the quarter performance gaming and little else.
Fund managers have to report their returns every quarter. With the markets gyrating throughout 2Q16, fund managers were highly incentivized to gun the markets higher in order to redeem the quarter.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2016
Stock Market 5-year Cycle? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
My own observations of a 4 year cycle show a very consistent low in the Dow every four years. In 1962 the cycle expanded to five years and in 1978 it contracted to three years.
The bull market from 2002 never provided a low that could be considered a cycle low and an important high was seen five years later in 2007. That was followed by a significant low four years later in 2011.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2016
S&P 500 Index Back At 2,100 Mark, Will It Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 2,100, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Tuesday, July 05, 2016
NYSE Stock Market Megaphone Top & Brexit / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Joseph_VanDerveer
The market has been strong and holding up even in the face of "Brexit" the British referendum which resulted in the majority deciding to vote "leave".
Trading the markets has a lot to do with psychology and many veteran traders are well aware of this.
Which brings me to my next point, July 2015, or more precisely July 5th, 2015, when Greece voters overwhelmingly voted no in their own referendum or popular vote.
Monday, July 04, 2016
A Perplexing Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: A lengthy correction is most likely underway!
SPX Intermediate trend: More time is needed to evaluate the nature of this rally.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 03, 2016
Stock Market Charts - What Do You See That Frightens You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jesse
"Peter. Verily, verily, I say to you, when you were young, you dressed yourself, and walked where you liked: but when you are old, you will stretch forth your hands, and another will gird you, and carry you where you would not wish to go."
Since the adults all seem to be leaving Wall Street early today to get a head start to the Hamptons, I will just post the charts as they are now and catch up on any late changes next week.
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Saturday, July 02, 2016
The Stock Market is Reading it Wrong! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The European markets, the British pound, and Euro had rallied for six days prior to its’ meeting based on political polls. These polls were showing that the vote was too close to call. The market incorrectly interpreted this as meaning that the “Remain” side would prevail. The British pound hit a new a year-to-date high last Thursday, June 23rd, 2016, the day of the election. Banks had done especially well in the rally, some being up by almost double digits during their best days. After the Brexit vote, they experienced a massive ‘selloff’.