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Is The Stocks Bull Market Complete?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Oct 07, 2014 - 04:05 PM GMT

By: Ed_Carlson

Stock-Markets

With all possible counts for a basic advance from the 2011 lows having expired and a right shoulder (9/17/14) printed and confirmed by middle section counts we know that the bull market is complete. However, it never hurts to have some affirmation along the way that rallies like Friday's are nothing more than hiccups in the bear market.


The key to knowing if Friday's rally was the beginning of a new basic advance is in understanding the nature of Thursday's low. The low on Thursday was confirmed by the high of a flattened top (or point E of a non-symmetrical descending middle section) on 11/30/07. It counts 1,249 days to the high of the previous basic cycle (black) on 5/2/11. Thursday's low was exactly 1,249 days beyond the high in 2011. This is the first of two steps in identifying the sort of low that the bears would be worried about.

Thursday's low was also forecast with a count from an important low on 10/18/00. It counts 2,549 days to the high of the multiple cycle (green) on 10/11/07. All important lows must be confirmed with forecasts from both the basic and multiple cycles. Thursday's low was exactly 2,548 days beyond the high in 2007.

But here's the rub for the bulls. The multiple cycle forecast is a low-high-low count and not a middle section forecast. All important lows have always been confirmed with middle sections. The fact that one of the forecasts used a method other than a middle section should be a big red flag for anyone who expects higher highs in the Dow.

Is the bull market complete?

Try a "sneak-peek" at Lindsay research (and more) at Seattle Technical Advisors.

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2014 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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