Category: Stock Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, November 04, 2012
Stock Market Downtrend May be Bottoming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
The US trading week began on pause, as exchanges were closed ahead of the expected Hurricane Sandy. Weather forecasters probably saved thousands of lives as they correctly anticipated the westward turn of Superstorm Sandy into the east coast. Kudos to them! As a result of the storm the NYSE was closed for four straight days, for the first time since the Blizzard of 1888. After a quiet opening on wednesday, the market surged on thursday (the first day of the month), and then gave it all back on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.3%. Asian markets gained 0.8%, European markets gained 0.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.6%. On the economic front positive reports outnumbered negative reports 13 to 3. On the downtick: the monetary base, the WLEI and the unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing, Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, the ADP index, construction spending, auto sales, the monthly payrolls report, consumer confidence, factory orders, and weekly jobless claims declined. Next week we will get reports on ISM services, Consumer sentiment and Consumer credit.
Sunday, November 04, 2012
Stock Market Good Employment Pop, But Other Realities Prevail / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short writes: A better than expected employment report goosed the market futures and the S&P 500 popped at the open, hitting its intraday high three minutes later. The opening gains had disappeared within the first 45 minutes of trading, and after a couple of hours scuba diving in the shallow red, the index slowly sold off to close the day with a 0.94% loss. That virtually erased the gains for the Sandy-shortened week, cutting it to 0.16%. Why the selloff? Some weak earnings, second thoughts about the impact of the storm, pre-election jitters: Take your pick or speculate on some vague combination of the three.
Saturday, November 03, 2012
Could a Bad Stock Market Monday and Tuesday Decide U.S. Presidential Election? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The VIX bounced from its 10-week moving average to complete a minor retracement, then closed above its 40-week support at 17.43 this week. A breakout above the inverted Head & Shoulders neckline and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 20.83 announces that a Third Wave is underway with substantially higher targets. Once the initial target is met, VIX has a shot at Cycle Top resistance at 34.02 and possibly much higher.
Saturday, November 03, 2012
Sandy Stock Market Correction Continues.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
While the market didn't lose much in terms of price, it's still in its correction as evidenced by the back test of the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages today that saw selling off those key resistance levels. They were both strong support levels not too long ago, but they have now turned into strong resistance levels. All of the key sector, index charts tested those levels today only to see the sellers come marching in to take things back down. This selling came even after we were up early on due to the better than expected employment report that came out one hour pre-market. There were 171,000 jobs created with expectations at 125,000. The futures shot up on this news allowing for a gap up open, but it didn't take long for the selling to come back in and take things into the red across the board.
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Saturday, November 03, 2012
Stock Market Investors Are Not Dumb! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Sy_Harding
How often do we hear statements like “Most of the ‘smart money’ is going into energy stocks right now”? Or advice to “Watch what the ‘smart money’ is doing”.
I use the term myself in reference to what usually savvy corporate insiders, institutional investors, hedge-funds, and other professional investors are doing at the time, in comparison to high or low levels of bullish investor sentiment.
Thursday, November 01, 2012
Stock Market Still Waiting for that Stimulus to Kick In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: PhilStockWorld
Is the Fed losing it's mojo?
Perhaps we are just impatient. We were discussing this topic in Member Chat yesterday as the so-far weak market action we're seeing since the announcement of QInfinity is beginning to make people wonder how we should position ourselves over the holidays.
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Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Stock Market Downtrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market continued to correct this week, as it has for most of October. After starting the week at SPX 1433, it quickly dropped to 1408 by early tuesday morning. Then for the rest of the week the market tried to rally but ended with a slightly lower low every day, right into friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Asian stocks lost 1.0%, European stocks lost 1.7%, and the DJ World index was -1.7%. On the economic front things continue to improve: positive reports outpaced negative ones 6 to 3. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, new home prices and the WLEI. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, FHFA housing prices, durable goods orders, Q3 GDP and weekly jobless claims declined. While this week’s market action was mostly technical due to the lack of economic reports. Next week the will likely be all about the economy. The monthly Payrolls report highlights the week, with Auto sales and the Chicago PMI.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Stock Market Possible Downtrend into January 2013 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX has made a triple top, which is a bearish pattern. It has now given a strong indication that an intermediate correction is underway.
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Sunday, October 28, 2012
Stock Market Roller-Coaster Ride Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: The major world indexes on my watchlist have been oscillating wildly between weekly losses and gains. Last weekend’s snapshot showed all eight posting gains with an average of the bunch at 2.02%. But the week just closed saw the average plummet to -1.38%. China took both the top and bottom spots. The Hang Seng was the top (i.e., least bad) performer with a nearly flat finish of -0.03%. The Shanghai Composite finished at -2.92%. The S&P 500 and FTSE 100 hovered in the middle of the pack, two basis points either side of the -1.50% mark.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Stock Market forecast for the coming week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Manas_Banerji
It will be very hard for stock indexes to sustain in these levels because there is no support of economic fundamentals; I am not only talking about the both sides of Atlantic but also about Emerging nations (or better to say BRICS nations). The way their economic reports are coming now it is concern weather they can cope with post November events (US fiscal cliff or global slowdown …….) or whatever that lays ahead.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Stock Market Rough Week...Bears More In Control / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
The stock market spent the week struggling along as the majority of leading stocks fell due to bad earnings reports. The poor reports were pretty much across the board. Make no mistake, there were many very solid reports as well. It was not all gloom and doom, but there were quite a number of reporters who said things seem to be slowing down harder than previously anticipated. What's really interesting, in a not so good way, is the fact that there were so many CEO's who seemed genuinely surprised by how fast things have turned down from a global perspective. Many talked about the need to lower guidance quite a bit due to uncertainty about whether things will start to improve. They'd rather err on the side of guiding lower than they should, so they don't disappoint once again in three months. If things improve, then they'll be able to surprise and beat those lowered expectations.
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Saturday, October 27, 2012
Is The Stock Market Plunging Over An Earnings Cliff? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Sy_Harding
The previous worries of the market seem to be fading away, only to be replaced by a new one that is perhaps more directly meaningful to stock market valuation.The U.S. economic slowdown of the spring and summer months appears to have bottomed. Home sales, new home starts, and home prices, have all been rising. The employment numbers have improved so much that skeptics even suspect the government must have somehow manipulated the numbers. Retail sales have been picking up. The latest reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2007. On Friday it was reported that the U.S. economy (GDP) grew 2.0% in the 3rd quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter, and better than the consensus forecast of 1.8%.
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Friday, October 26, 2012
The Stock Market and U.S. Presidential Election 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Zeal_LLC
After a long contentious slog, the hyper-critical 2012 elections are almost here. Americans will finally have the opportunity to choose our great nation’s future course. Will we collectively vote for free-market prosperity or big-government dependency? One thing is certain, the fortunes of the US stock markets will play a major role in this all-important decision. Few things influence our national sentiment more.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Stock Market Excitement Begins Here / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Yesterday I commented that the SPX may make one more attempt at the Head & Shoulders neckline at 1421.00 before resuming the decline. Well, here it is.
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Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Stock Market In The Belly Of The Beast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Toby_Connor
Asset markets should now be in the final 3-5 days of this intermediate degree profit-taking event. We are moving into the belly of the beast, so to speak. This is that period of time during an intermediate decline where things start to look really bad. The media always confirms the decline with multiple stories of gloom and doom. Don't be fooled though, this is just a normal profit-taking event and it happens like clockwork about every 20-22 weeks (although sometimes QE can stretch the cycle to over 30 weeks).
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Stock Market Bulls vs. Bears At The 50's................. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
Oversold. That's the word on the short-term charts, yet the market was threatening to break decently, or let's call it forcefully, below the 50-day exponential moving average, which sits basically right on 1430. The S&P 500 broke below with a bit of force today, but the RSI on the 60-minute short-term chart reached 22. It's hard to break an index down forcefully when you're that oversold. Not an easy chore to be sure. The bears tried, and although they didn't forcefully take the S&P 500 down below those critical 50's, it's not as if the bulls burst back above with any power of their own. A drop of the right or wrong news could tip the way this breaks. It won't take much either way. If we do lose those 50's, then the S&P 500 has a shot at testing the 1370 area in time. That would not be a death knell for the market, but it would sure create a lot more pessimism. Today was a great fight and it's not over.
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Monday, October 22, 2012
MAP Analysis – Europe Collapse and Common Sense! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Marc_Horn
Everything has its time due to the fractal nature of time . I am not saying it will happen tomorrow and it will not be a single catastrophic drop. We need to unwind the mistakes of the past one step at a time. I hope as you read this you will gain a better understanding of how the future will unfold. There always are bull and bear phases – that depends on the fractal time frame!
Following the updating of my charts an interesting picture is evident from MAP analysis I like to check the common sense approach!
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Monday, October 22, 2012
Stock Market Finally Rolling Over! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - SPX has now made a triple top, which is a bearish pattern. For confirmation of a downtrend, it will need to close below 1420 on a daily basis.
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Monday, October 22, 2012
Stock Market Continues to Correct / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another wild week! After we posted last weekend that the SPX/DOW appeared to be declining in a downtrend. The market promptly rallied, from monday thru thursday, to within 1% of the bull market highs. Then, suddenly, gave all of those gains back in 24 hours. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.4%. For a change, the Foreign markets did much better. Asian markets gained 1.5%, European markets gained 3.0%, and the DJ World index rose 1.3%. On the economic front positive reports outnumbered negative reports 13 to 3. On the downtick: the NY FED, existing home sales and weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, the CPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, the NAHB housing index, housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED, leading indicators, the M1 multiplier, the monetary base and the WLEI. Next week the FED meets tuesday/wednesday, plus we get the first report on Q3 GDP.
Monday, October 22, 2012
US Presidential Election Too Close to Call Causing Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Christopher_Quigley
The charts below clearly show that the Dow Transport and the Dow Industrial indices continue to exhibit divergent modalities. Since November 2009 the charts indicate that the Industrials have reached higher highs but the Transports have failed this test and have been range bound for nearly all of 2012. The direction and the momentum with which the Trannies break from this range will be most significant. I believe the market is awaiting with trepidation the results of the November presidential election. As we speak the polls are indicating that either candidate can win and this is bringing a fair degree of uncertainty into price action. The major concern is the position of Mr. Romney with regard to Iran given his predisposition to quickly consider war as a policy option. A new Middle Eastern conflagration is the last thing the world economy needs right now but unfortunately he has been boxed in by powerful interests. It is hard to see how he can march himself down the hill of imminent warfare, formal or covert, should the hand of destiny finally fall upon him.