Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, June 04, 2009
Bernanke's Math - Does It Add Up? / Currencies / US Dollar
The current account deficit is down as we are less reliant on foreigners to finance our deficits; the government's deficit is increasingly covered by the domestic private sector as private sector borrowing is down. -- These were the approximate words of Fed Chairman Bernanke in testimony to the House Budget Committe. This statement is so troublesome, let's examine it a step at the time.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Speculative Bets Against the U.S. Dollar Highest Since July 15 2008 / Currencies / US Dollar
Anti-dollar sentiment is again running rampant. Please consider Bets against dollar highest since start of economic crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
How Far Can the U.S. Dollar Fall? / Commodities / US Dollar
I was quite amazed when I looked back to see how long it’s been since I’ve put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. I had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos I had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.
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Monday, June 01, 2009
China Forced to Support U.S. Dollar to Defend $2 trillion Currency Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
China is uncomfortable about being the principal creditor of the United States. Asia’s largest nation became the hostage of the US economy in the 21st century. The reserves of the People’s Republic of China are based on dollar assets - $2 trillion. US Treasury Bonds make $700 billion of the amount. China is forced to continue crediting the budget deficit of the United States not to let these reserves go down in value.
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Saturday, May 30, 2009
US Dollar Hegemony Over China and Russia / Currencies / US Dollar
Bob Chapman writes: The Chinese and Russians are the laughing stock of the US and European Illuminists at the G-20 meetings concerning talk about a new world reserve currency to supplant the dollar. With China's gold reserves of about a thousand tons and Russia's five hundred tons, they are like penny ante poker players trying to get in on a thousand dollar ante game. They need five to ten thousand tons of gold reserves just to be an average player in "The Big Game," much less a leading and influential player. The rest of their foreign exchange reserves are denominated in fiat currencies, which are all practically worthless except for the euro and Swiss franc.
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Drags Dollar Lower Under Weight of Bond Issuance / Currencies / US Dollar
Talk of Fed Exit Strategy is Premature. Yesterdays 23-basis point jump in 10-year yields to 3.74% may have been helped by mortgage backed securities traders hedging, but the upward trend remains clearly intact. With Fed increasingly behind the curve in catching up with US Treasurys relentless bond issues, 10 year yields have now retraced over 50% of their decline from their 5.32% high of June 2007 to their record low of 2.03% in December.
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar, the Worst Investment of All Time? / Currencies / US Dollar
One investment, more than any other, has proven to be a terrible storehouse of value for well over 80 years.
While some disasters unfold rapidly (Enron, subprime mortgages, etc.), this investment’s decline has occurred in slow motion, losing an average of 3.6% a year. Indeed, you can hardly find a period in the last 89 years in which this investment actually MADE money.
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
Treasury Bond Market Crash Threatens U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
THE PRICE OF GOLD rose $6 early Thursday to record the best AM Gold Fix in London so far this week, hitting $949.75 an ounce as world stock markets fell and US government bonds bounced from their worst sell-off since January.
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Roll Over Accelerates into Mid 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
In 2008, as the global bear market gather momentum, investors were drawn to the fundamentally weak U.S. dollar as a 'safe haven'. However, as volatility slowly erodes from the equity markets in 2009 and the appetite for risk in commodities and stocks gradually returns, the flight-to-safety mentality for the $USD is also evaporating. In its place is a return to a more rational fundamental review of the American currency.
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Saturday, May 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated, Still the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
Bryan Rich writes: Many investors are concerned about the future path of the dollar … and with good reason.
The Treasury is increasing the money supply in amounts never seen before or even imagined … all in an effort to avert a meltdown and stimulate a path to recovery. And as expected, there are no shortages of opinions about the trillions of dollars being created out of thin air …
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Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Impact on Commodity Price Trends / Commodities / US Dollar
On any day that commodities prices move materially, the financial media is quick to ascribe their action to the US dollar. And this oft-discussed causal relationship is certainly logical. With commodities priced in dollars, a stronger dollar will buy more units of any given commodity while a weaker dollar buys less.
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Thursday, May 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Slashed Due to Fed Quantitative Easing / Currencies / US Dollar
Today's serious case of dollar-damage was once again made courtesy of the nations central bank. The Feds purchase of $7.7 bln in 7 and 10-year treasuries in the morning, followed by purchases of $3.08 bln in Agency securities in the afternoon accelerated the dollar decline and the resulting rally in commodities --as was the case on March 18 when the Fed first announced purchases of long term treasuries. Today's dollar sell-off stood out from previous declines by the fact that EURUSD knifed through the key resistance of $1.3740 (failed 4 times this year) to $1.3830, and even sterling finally managed to break above its 200-day moving average vs USD--something that all majors currencies had achieved in previous weeks surging to a 7-month high of $1.5794.
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Thursday, May 21, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar Heading For a Mighty Crash? / Currencies / US Dollar
Each month, the US Treasury publishes its International Capital account, (TIC) which foreign currency traders and bond dealers use to gauge the flows of money from around the world, into and out-of the US-capital markets. The demand for a nation’s bonds and stocks, combined with international trade flows for goods and services, plus behind the scenes intervention by central banks, all act in concert to influence the foreign exchange market which handles $4-trillion per day.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar in Trouble? / Currencies / US Dollar
How we analyze the Dollar Index - According to the dollar index (DX), which is a basket of currencies that track the dollar, it would appear as though the dollar is indeed going to be coming under more pressure. The dollar index is much like an index for stocks except in this case it is for currencies.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2009
China and Brazil Try to Flee From the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
Brazil's state visit to China has set the chins wagging. Will an agreement be struck to invoice their bilateral trade in their own currencies rather than the dollar? Brazilian President Lula had made some allusions to this last month around the G20 meeting.
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Sunday, May 17, 2009
The Incredible Shrinking Global Economies Bullish for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
Bryan Rich writes: Germany is the world’s largest exporter. And in the broadest global recession on record, demand for its exports has come to a virtual standstill.
As a result, Germany, the core of the Eurozone, is shrinking at a record pace. And Germany isn’t alone. Many of the world’s largest economies have rested on the export model.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Fed Seeks U.S. Dollar Devaluation to Reflate the Economy / Currencies / US Dollar
Commodities are rising, the dollar is falling and the trade deficit is growing. Everything bad is good again, thanks to the Feds.
All of the pernicious factors that brought us to the brink of financial Armageddon are now once again returning and are still—amazingly enough--being embraced as both normal and healthy for the long term viability of the U.S. economy. Factors such as a strengthening U.S. dollar, shrinking trade deficit, a surging savings rate and falling commodity prices were all being viewed as the bane of the U.S. economy. And now, unfortunately, what had been the budding re-emergence of economic sanity is being obliterated by a killing frost thanks to the Fed and the Administration.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Follow the Money… Out of the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
Kieran Osborne writes: Recently, stock markets appear to have experienced an almost euphoric phase, seemingly shrugging off most negative news flow day after day. Whether or not you believe in the so-called “green shoots” of economic recovery, a significant economic rebound, or a continued decline in economic activity, one thing seems abundantly clear: investors have been becoming less risk averse. The most commonly followed “fear indicator”, the VIX index, has retracted (likewise, other commonly followed indicators such as the TED spread has tightened and OIS spreads have reverted to levels not seen since the Lehman Brothers collapse), three month T-bill yields have recently risen and equity markets around the world have rebounded from March lows.
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Sunday, May 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
The US Dollar Index has been experiencing weakness over the course of the past few days and is challenging present support levels, which if broken, could see a dip to 82-83. Analysis today will illustrate various trends in the USD and what to expect over the course of the next few weeks.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar Turned Back at Yen 100 / Currencies / US Dollar
The dollar seemed on the fast track to cruise past 100 yen and beyond recently. During the six week long stock market rally, the dollar surge to a high point of 101 yen on April 6th. However, as the Dow has flattened and held above 8,000 the last couple weeks, the dollar’s momentum against its Japanese counterpart has waned.
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