Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Drags Dollar Lower Under Weight of Bond Issuance

Currencies / US Dollar May 28, 2009 - 07:48 PM GMT

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTalk of Fed Exit Strategy is Premature. Yesterdays 23-basis point jump in 10-year yields to 3.74% may have been helped by mortgage backed securities traders hedging, but the upward trend remains clearly intact. With Fed increasingly behind the curve in catching up with US Treasurys relentless bond issues, 10 year yields have now retraced over 50% of their decline from their 5.32% high of June 2007 to their record low of 2.03% in December.


The path is now paved towards the 4.1% market, last attained in October 2008. We cannot imagine the Fed sticking with its current plan to purchase $300 bln in treasuries when their yields are exasperating the fragile jobless recovery and further endangering the value of their foreign holders. The only solution so far is for the FOMC to step up purchases towards the $500-700 billion target, the implications of which will flash the green-light for dollar selling.

"Green Shoots" optimists, credit rating pessimists and bonds-to-stocks rotation realists have all provided arguments for the jump in bond yields. The acceleration could be extended by reduced portfolio weightings in government bonds and onto metals and agriculture. Portfolio re-allocations from fixed income to commodities may be uncommon, but central banks reflationary policies leave little choice for investors to pursue seek capital preservation strategies.


The chart above illustrates the USD index/10 yr yield index ratio, highlighting the ensuing retracement in the value of the greenback relative to bond yields after the ratio shot up to a record high of 37 in November. A rising ratio reflects an appreciating greenback relative to bond prices, while a declining ratio highlights the bonds underperformance relative to the US currency. The overshoot in the USD/Yield ratio of Q4 reflected the combination of violent repatriation flows into US treasuries, which boosted the USD and dragged down yields. The ratio, currently at 22 (80.9/3.7) is above its 39-year average of 15 and is bound for further declinesin line with broader retreat in the greenback.

The EURUSD chart below supports the view for continued gains towards the $1.41, followed by $1.47 by end of quarter. Meanwhile we could see an interim retreat limited to $1.3720-30s. The same applies for AUDUSD, whose support holds at 0.7650, while paving the way for 0.820

More Speculative Dollar Shorts Ahead. Last week's data from currency futures showed euro longs vs. USD exceeded the shorts by 12,250 contractsthe highest level since the week of July 15 (the week when EURUSD hit its record high). Meanwhile, yen longs vs. USD exceeded the shorts by 6,000 contracts, the highest since March. Aussie net longs vs. USD also hit their highest since July, reflecting the extent of deepening anti-USD sentiment among the speculative (non-commercial) community. Considering that EUR and JPY net longs vs. USD are about 11 times lower than their record highs, speculators have plenty of upside against the USD in terms of quantity as well as price.

For an 8-year view on Forex speculators' positions on euro, yen, sterling, aussie and loonie, click here.

By Ashraf Laidi
AshrafLaidi.com

Ashraf Laidi is the Chief FX Analyst at CMC Markets NA. This publication is intended to be used for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CMC Markets (US) LLC is registered as a Futures Commission Merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

Ashraf Laidi Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in