Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, August 14, 2014
Putin And The Petrodollar Card Castle / Currencies / US Dollar
The End of The Petrodollar
Googling my name and petrodollars may be useful – the petrodollar paradigm has been alive, but never well since the early 1970s quick-fix of Nixon and Kissinger to cut US trade and budget deficits, bolster the US dollar, and stroke Saudi royal fur in the right direction. The Nixon-Kissinger quick fix was to use the “windfall gains” of Arab Gulf oil producers, and especially Saudi Arabia to enable their early form of quantitative easing.
Monday, August 11, 2014
US Sanctions on Russia May Sink the Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
The US government's decision to apply more sanctions on Russia is a grave mistake and will only escalate an already tense situation, ultimately harming the US economy itself. While the effect of sanctions on the dollar may not be appreciated in the short term, in the long run these sanctions are just another step toward the dollar's eventual demise as the world's reserve currency.
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Thursday, August 07, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index Looks For Correction Within The Uptrend / Currencies / US Dollar
The US Dollar Index found 81.70 which has been expected as the rally from around 79.90 has unfolded in five waves. We know that after every five waves trend will reverse, either into a new trend or just into a correction. In our case we believe that market is now falling in another fourth wave, but of a higher degree that may find a base around 81.20, but after a three wave fall.
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Friday, August 01, 2014
USD Topping Out – Nikkei Weekly Pin Bar / Currencies / US Dollar
Forex Kong writes: The other day’s 100 pip ramp up in USD/JPY has stuck – so far.
Sitting up here at the top end of the range it’s obvious that The BOJ did everything it could “pre U.S GDP debacle” to keep the status quo and defend the line at 101.20.
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Tuesday, July 01, 2014
U.S. Dollar Summer Cycle Sit Down / Currencies / US Dollar
A 3year cycle points to an important low this summer. At 3years, 3months, July seems like a good bet but it is possible the cycle low came two months early with the low in May. However, July is also an expected 13-month cycle low. A 95-day cycle low is due the final week in July.
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Sunday, June 15, 2014
US Dollar Index Huge Consolidation Pattern / Currencies / US Dollar
The title says it all really. Let’s first look at the yearly chart of the US Dollar Index to see what it means.
YEARLY CHART
Monday, June 02, 2014
U.S. Dollar Distorted, Dislocated and Discombobulated / Currencies / US Dollar
It looks like we’ll have a few more days to watch this thing, this alleged market, until on Thursday Mario Draghi launches his modern day version of Greenspan’s oracle years and on Friday the BLS, which can rival any oracle when it comes to confusing utterances, has the US employment numbers. There seem to be people who think those numbers might be quite good, though that might be hard to imagine in the wake of a shrinking US economy. Then again, in an environment where very few numbers make sense anymore, it’s anyone’s call.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Fall Of the U.S. Dollar Based Monetary System: Russia Puts The Avalanche In Motion / Currencies / US Dollar
It is truly astonishing how much trust people have in the establishment. Almost everyone believes that central planners are focused on defending the best outcome for society. In the same respect, almost everyone nowadays believes that “things are contained.”
Looking under the hood, it appears that several worrisome trends are going on. Examining those trends, one can only conclude that they are building up momentum. But make no mistake, momentum, in this case, is not in the right direction.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Gold Standard - How the U.S. Government Created the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By Robert Prechter
The Government's Disastrous Reign Over U.S. Money
Very few people know that the United States did not create a monetary unit pegged to 'buy' some amount of metal, as if the dollar were some kind of money independent of metal. In 1792, Congress passed the U.S. Coinage Act, which defined a dollar as a coin containing 337.25 grains of silver and 44.75 grains of alloy. Congress did not say a dollar was worth that amount of metal; it was that amount of metal. A dollar, then was a unit of weight, like a gram, ounce or pound. Since the alloy portion of the coin was nearly worthless, a dollar was essentially defined as 1 Troy ounce.) In a nutshell, a dollar was equal to a bit more than 3/4 of an announce of silver; or, in reverse, an ounce of silver was equal to $1.293.
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Thursday, May 15, 2014
High Tide for the U.S. Dollar: Revenge of the Sith / Politics / US Dollar
I have certainly considered this scenario many times, of how the dollar regime might evolve, and the one discussed below remains one possible outcome.
There is an intense international discussion going on about the future of the international currency system, and relations in general. I have referred to this generally as the 'currency wars' for some time.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Are Russia and China About To Announce The End Of The US Dollar Era? / Politics / US Dollar
Countries all over the world are meeting for a purpose that concerns you greatly, whether or not you're American: disuse of the US dollar.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis the end of the US dollar seems closer than ever. In move-after-move, Russia and China have become closer allies. There are numerous examples of this. For brevity's sake, two recent examples catch the eye. Gazprom issued bonds in the Chinese Yuan and Russia and China also signed a gas deal. There are many more examples. 40 central banks have even placed bets on the yuan as the future reserve currency.
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Monday, May 12, 2014
U.S. Dollar/Yen Dynamics and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
It is imperative to understand the dynamics between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese Yen in order to grasp what is occurring across international markets. Investors have been borrowing Yen at nearly zero percent interest rates and buying higher-yielding assets located worldwide. These market savvy institutions and individuals realize that buying income producing assets, which are backed by a currency that is gaining value against the Yen, is a win-win trade.
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Monday, May 12, 2014
What’s Going on With the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
The below is the index of the US $ against a basket of currencies, such as € (c 58% of index), £, CAN$, CHF (Swiss Franc) and Japanese ¥ and (strangely) Swedish Krona.
As you can see the US$ was in confirmed uptrend from the all time low in 2011 to last Summer (red diagonal line indicates).
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Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Has The U.S. Dollar Lost its Safe Haven Status? / Currencies / US Dollar
The greenback isn't what it used to be. At least for now, when there's a "flight" to U.S. Treasuries; historically a sign of "safe haven" demand; the U.S. dollar has not only not benefited but has increasingly been on the losing end. Is this a temporary sign of special circumstances or has the dollar lost its safe haven appeal? There may be profound implications for investor's portfolios seeking downside protection.
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Tuesday, April 22, 2014
U.S. Dollar Crash In a Matter of Months? / Currencies / US Dollar
In case you were wondering there is a Comex precious metal options expiration on Thursday the 24th.
Since the expiration is for the inactive month of May, I am wondering if they are not going to do an early hit with a head fake on this one as the day comes.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
USD/JPY Capped In A Triangle / Currencies / US Dollar
Despite strong sell-off from 103.74 two weeks back {{3|USD/JPY}} is moving sideways for too long now, so we assume that market is trapped in some bigger corrective pattern. Because swing low since start of February are still in place we are observing a triangle idea with wave (c) underway now to 103.00 area, especially bounce bounce from 101.20 is already showing signs of a corrective move. Keep in mind that each leg within a triangle unfold in corrective manner, thus in three legs.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
U.S. Dollar Value Could Suffer Instant Change / Currencies / US Dollar
span style="color:#000000; ">Silver expert David Morgan is warning of coming financial changes that may be forced on the U.S. during the next G20 meeting. Morgan says, “The impetus here is the U.S. has had too much financial power backed by the military for far too long, and they (G20) are going to implement change one way or the other. The IMF is basically an extension of the United States. Even though it’s called the International Monetary Fund, it is really U.S. based. With what’s been proposed here, the IMF is not going to have the clout that it once did because the G-20 is going to be able to overrule the IMF vote. This is a point in history, monetary history and global economic politics that could set a precedent . . . where it’s official that the U.S. dollar has lost its primary status as world reserve currency.”
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
U.S. Dollar Bottom - Third Time’s a Charm? / Currencies / US Dollar
The US Dollar index bottomed on Monday’s 21-day cycle and then rallied over 1% last week (after the previous week’s big cycle convergence). In doing so it printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on the weekly chart (not shown).
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Friday, March 21, 2014
U.S. Dollar Extends Gains After Jobless Claims Data, Trend Forecasts / Currencies / US Dollar
The U.S. dollar moved higher against major currency pairs after better-than-expected initial jobless claims data. Earlier today, the Department of Labor showed in its report that initial claims for jobless benefits in the week ending March 15 rose by 5,000 to 320,000 from the previous week's total of 315,000 000, while analysts had expected an increase of 10,000. What impact did it have on major currency pairs? What is their current outlook? If you want to know our take on this question, we invite you to read our today's Forex Trading Alert.
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Tuesday, March 11, 2014
USD Remains In Bearish Mode / Currencies / US Dollar
Markets are still very slow and in tight ranges since start of the week. The USD however is showing some recovery now, but only on the intraday basis. Generally speaking USD remains in bearish mode, while stocks remain up.
On EUR/USD we can see wave c now moving south that we highlighted it yesterday. Fibonacci ratios shows a nice support around at 1.3830/40 where pair may find a new base again. Rally back above 1.3880 will open door for new highs.
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