Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Friday, January 07, 2011
How High Can the Stock Market Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
With global economic activity exceeding low expectations and the Fed stating the threshold is high to scale back its money-printing program (QE2), it is a good time to examine the upside potential of the stock market. While the average investor has a limited memory when it comes to market reversal points that occurred in 1998, computers and trading algorithms have no trouble recalling them in vivid detail. Therefore, taking a little walk down memory lane may help us compete more effectively with the largest firms on Wall Street.
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Friday, January 07, 2011
Stock Market – Comedy or Tragedy? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Russell 8-0-0, Russell 8-0-0! Wherefore art thou Russell8-0-0? Deny thy dollar and refuse to fall, or, if thou spike not, be but consolidating at resistance and I’ll happily Capitulate….
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
QE2 & Stock Market Breadth Still Question the ‘Smart Money’ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The ‘smart money’ has been calling for a correction for over six weeks now, often citing extended sentiment to build their case. We looked at sentiment recently and agree it raises yellow flags that need to be respected, but sentiment alone is not a reason to head for the exits (yet).
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
The Coming Decade of Sideways Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Your latest book, The Little Book of Sideways Markets, was just published. What is a sideways market?
Let's begin with some definitions so we can speak clearly about this. When I talk about markets, I'm talking about secular markets that last longer than five years, usually decades or longer.
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Targets 1,313, 1,326 in 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
While Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index came in near expectations, it was the highest reading since May 2010. Production showed healthy gains moving from 55 to 60.7. New orders also gained 4.3 points moving to a bullish 60.9. Eleven of the eighteen industries reported growth. According to the ISM, December’s index level historically has been associated with real GDP growth of 5.0%.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Stock Market Leaders for 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks drifted quietly in the past week, seemingly satisfied with the status quo and in no hurry to get to their next destination. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index all clocked in tandem for a loss or gain of +0.1% to -0.1%.
Overseas stocks were the only major winners, with developed markets outside the United States up 1.4% and emerging markets up 2.2%.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Stock Market Heading for an Early Year 10% Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I hope everyone had a great holiday and new years!
It’s time to reset our profit counter to zero and start looking for new profitable trades along with managing our current open positions on our small cap stocks which we continue to hold with gains of 66%, 35% and 10%.
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Monday, January 03, 2011
Stocks Market Targets Short Term SPX Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the secular bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, equity markets began an upward corrective move in the form of a mini bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend into 2011.
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Monday, January 03, 2011
Shiller Abandons P E Ratio’s and Does a Roubini / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Oh dear, I suppose all good things must come to an end one day. Today, tragically, we must mourn the sad demise of “trailing P/E ratios” as the infallible predictor of the future.
Using long term analysis, Professor Robert Shiller, macromarkets chief economist at Yale University and the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, told CNBC on Friday that the S&P 500 may reach 1430 by the year 2020.
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Monday, January 03, 2011
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 3rd Jan / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The US markets spend the holiday week essentially going sideways on light volume. Economic reports were mixed. Case-Shiller housing, consumer confidence and the monetary base all declined. The Chicago PMI, pending homes sales, the WLEI, and the weekly jobless improved, with unemployment claims dropping under 400K for the first time in two years. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 0.7%, Crude slipped 0.1%, Gold rose 3.0%, and the USD lost 1.8%. Asian markets were mixed gaining 0.2%, European markets were down 2.2%, the Commodity equity group rose 0.6%, and the DJ World index rose 0.8%. Next week will likely be a busy one as most return from holiday. ISM, FOMC minutes and the Payrolls report highlight the week. Best to your New Year!
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Thursday, December 30, 2010
Stock Market Outlook 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
But first, how did my forecast for 2010 work out?
A year ago there was considerable excitement about the recession having ended the previous June, and the stock market surging up in a dramatic new bull market off its March, 2009 bottom.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Stock Market Investors Should Celebrate 2010, But Be Cautious on 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Month January is named after the Roman god Janus. He is depicted as having two faces. One looking back at the fading last hours of the old year, the other trying to discern the new year. Similarly I contemplate the final two trading days of the old 2010 year and the opening of the first five trading days of the 2011 year. This period is sometimes marked by swirls of positioning often referred to as "window dressing" in order to make portfolios appear as attractive as possible.
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Tuesday, December 28, 2010
One Reason to Bet on U.S. Stocks in 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There are definitely plenty of reasons to be concerned about the U.S. economy — and the broad market — in the year ahead.
But as I prepare my strategy for the coming year, there’s an area that clearly argues for being bullish on stocks in 2011 … and it’s probably not one you’d expect …
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Monday, December 27, 2010
What 2010's End is Saying About 2011's Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks rose last week with all the excitement of water turning to ice in the freezer.
I kept hitting the side of my monitor to see if the pixels were stuck -- but no, it was just another one of those low-volume, low-drama late-December sessions that we have come to know and love.
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Sunday, December 26, 2010
Stock Market Technical Outlook 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
As we kick off 2011, there are plenty of things for investors to worry about, including budget imbalances in developed nations, high levels of bullish sentiment, and a fear of rising interest rates. As of late December 2010, the market’s technical profile remains healthy relative to the outlook for the next few months, something we expand on in the video below.
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Friday, December 24, 2010
Stock Market Bullish Tone Continues into 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Equity markets have enjoyed a positive tone since mid-2010. Improving fundamentals and rising U.S. GDP have bolstered investor confidence and supported the upward trend of the bull market. A year-end review of several key technical gauges highlights the ongoing strength that is normally associated with bull markets and should remind investors of the opportunities ahead in 2011.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Stock Market Sentiment Not A Barrier To Further Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There are currently several reasons to be concerned about the stock market, from debt problems in Europe to slowing technical momentum. However, if investor sentiment is currently at the top of your list of concerns, you may want to bump it down a few notches.
Stock market sentiment relative to a bullish or bearish outlook can be used as a contrary indicator for stock prices when it reaches extremes. If you follow the markets closely, you have run into an article or two making the case that a correction or bear market is imminent based on the current state of extended bullish sentiment.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
U.S. Stock Market Forecast 2011, Outperform for Tech, Energy and Commodity, Gold Sectors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Shah Gilani writes: The outlook for the U.S. stock market in the New Year figures to be an exasperating mixture of promise and peril. Positive momentum is building going into 2011, but so are dangerous bubbles.
The high-tech, energy, materials and commodities sectors will be hot in the New Year. And the U.S. stock market will get an added boost from the fact that U.S. Treasuries, municipal bonds (munis) and euro-based investments will not.
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Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In this critical year-end forecast we shall pinpoint the following:
- The precise degree of trend in which the Dow currently trades
- The size and scope of the current wave at Supercycle degree
- Where the Dow stands within its current primary bull market advance
- Where the Dow and general share prices may be heading in 2011 and beyond
- The precise path broad market indices may take during the course of IV down
- Exactly how traders and investors should engage the markets going forward
Saturday, December 18, 2010
2011 The Third Year of the Presidential Stock Market Cycle! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The history of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle is that the stock market tends to experience its worst corrections and bear markets in one or both of the first two years of a president’s term, and then be positive for the last two years of the term.
In fact, studies have shown that if investors were to stay out of the market for the first two years of each presidential term, and then buy and hold for the last two years they would substantially outperform the market over the long-term.