Category: Financial Markets 2009
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Stock Market Bubble-Mania in China Spreads to Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The S&P-500 Index, a global bellwether for the world stock markets, extended its best five-month winning streak since 1938, by advancing through the psychological 1,000-level, and is up nearly 50% from its 12-year low set on March 10th. The S&P-500 gained 7.4% in July, its best monthly performance since 1997, even as average earnings per-share tumbled -32% and sales slid -16% from a year ago.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Burning Fiat Paper Financial Casles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
‘Its only castles burning’ – A piercing lyric central to a Neal Young classic and also an appropriate sentiment with respect to the paper castles burning in the world of finance these days. Whether it’s a result of inflation or deflation – value is being lost – paper is burning – to reflect the value that never was. Our service-based economy is all an illusion you see, poised to burn like Rome at its turn, in grand scale. This what happens in fiat currency economies, where paper castles that are built on whims and flap in the wind, easily susceptible to the first spark that comes along. So, don’t let such an outcome bring you down, find something that is turning (protect you) – that being gold – and you will come around just fine.
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Monday, August 03, 2009
Financial Market Forecasts 2009 Update, Gold Ready For $1,000/oz / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
This is a follow up to the Q1 2009 Summary On Gold And Various Markets issued on March 31, 2009 ( http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9800.html)
In the first quarter of 2009, we reached the climax of US banking collapse. Global central banks hurried to apply fiscal and monetary stimulus, including unconventional "Quantitative Easing", which entail ed the printing of over $1.5 trillion to buy troubled mortgage and derivative assets. Our conclusion then was
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Monday, August 03, 2009
Investment Thoughts, Stock Market Eventual Retest of March Lows / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Not going to chase the market for a number of reasons, but most of all we should see a retest of the March lows sometime in the distant future, maybe a year or so. The US banking sector is still not healthy and has been propped up by regulatory rule changes.
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Monday, August 03, 2009
Bankrupt Bailed Out Banks Buying U.S. Treasuries to Keep Interest Rates Low / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
U.S. lenders bailed out by the government are returning the favor by stepping up purchases of Treasuries, helping to temper a rise in borrowing costs.
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Sunday, August 02, 2009
Investors Favor the Inflation Trade on Better than Expected Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
For some reason the lyrics of Electric Light Orchestra’s classic, Livin’ Thing, keep resounding in my head: “You took me, ooh, woah, higher and higher, baby. It’s a livin’ thing … ” Followed by: “It’s a terrible thing to lose … ” But let me get on to the review of the financial markets …
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Sunday, August 02, 2009
State of the Economy and Markets, Bearish on Most Things Except Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
There were quite a few economic reports out this week and many of them are starting to slowly turn more positive. This is good news, as a journey of 1000 miles begins one step at a time. However, much of what is reported in the media tends to have a spin put on it. I want the economy to improve as much as the next person, but I want to know if it’s for real or not, as in sustainable.
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Saturday, August 01, 2009
Weakening U.S. Dollar and Rising Urban Unemployment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Bob Chapman writes: On Wednesday the Treasury’s five-year auction yield was 2.69% with 21.15% allotted at the high and bid to cover was 1.92 to 1. The average of the past ten auctions has been 2.20%. Indirect, central bank participation was 35.7% versus an average of 36.8%. Overall that was weak demand. Do not forget the Treasury has to raise $2 trillion by 9/30/09.
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Friday, July 31, 2009
Stock Markets Best Month for 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Dear Reader
The stock markets close July with many widely tracked indices experiencing their best performance for the month of July for more than 20 years. Many commentators are writing "where are the investors?", as few have ridden the rally, which is the whole point of a stocks stealth bull market as most investors smarting from the bear market remain paralysed by fear of the preceding bear market that either miss or in fact consistently bet against, convinced by a stream of statistics as to why this rally should imminently terminate, no matter that the so called 'bear market rally" has risen some 40% and for asian markets more than 100% since the March lows.
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Friday, July 31, 2009
Investor Risk Appetite Retuns As The Stocks Bears Run Scared / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The bear slaughter continues apace. Stocks surged Thursday, hitting their highest levels in nearly 9 months, as investors eyed the latest batch of “better-than-expected” (yawn) profits and guidance, a weaker Dollar, a decent 7 year US Treasury bond auction, a report that suggested the labor market is starting to stabilize and soothing words from China that they would refill the punch bowl.
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Thursday, July 30, 2009
Stock Market Holds Up Well Despite The Newsflow / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Yesterday was strange with bad news coming thick and fast, but yet again stocks proved remarkably resilient closing with only a mild red hue. Crude oil dropped below $64 barrel (after a jump in inventories) which should have pressured producers more. Investors frowned upon the terms Yahoo finally managed to extract from Microsoft.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Chinese Whispers A Worry For Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The two potential market moving economic catalysts Tuesday pointed in opposite directions, with the Case Shiller survey suggesting that the pace in price declines in U.S. real estate is slowing, but with the consumer confidence number slipping to 46.3 (from 49.3 in June), the market decided to call it a draw stocks meandered into the close broadly flat.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stabilization and the Stock / Gold Ratio / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Dollar weakness has been excessive...at least for now..
The overnight wave of dollar selling was mostly led by a fresh wave of buying in commodity currencies (rather than only rising equities) courtesy of +$70 in crude prices and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia raising the possibility of rate hikes before a peak in the unemployment rate. Markets were already expecting the RBA to raise rates by 25 bps by year-end.
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Monday, July 27, 2009
Financial Markets and Economic Analysis of the Week / News_Letter / Financial Markets 2009
The Market Oracle Newsletter
July 25th, 2009 Issue #60 Vol. 3
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Investors Place Bets on Global Economic Recovery, Propelling Stocks Higher / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Goodbye safe havens, hello risky assets” seemed to be the theme during the past week as investors placed their bets on a global economic recovery, propelling stocks and other risky assets higher amid better-than-expected earnings reports and tentative signs of stabilization in the US job and housing markets.
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Sunday, July 26, 2009
From Stocks Bear Trap to Bull Market? The US Dollar is Key / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
A false breakdown has reversed sharply to new highs. Has a new Bull Market begun?
Since the last BBMR on May 25th, the equities markets have made a top, established a new downtrend and then threatened to break down out of a head and shoulders formation. The break was rejected with a violent upside thrust to new highs. Market action and technicals are suggestive of a renewed bull trend. Fundamentally, the economic data has generally improved and earnings have exceeded expectations in most sectors. Commodities markets, particularly the precious metals, have continued higher even as equities have stalled and the action in those markets are supportive of the reflation/inflation trade hypothesis.
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Saturday, July 25, 2009
Stock Market Massive Insider Selling, End of the Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Execs at big banks aren’t worried about their paycheck.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank by assets, will increase salaries for investment bankers, mirroring similar steps taken by rivals, a person familiar with the firm said.
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Friday, July 24, 2009
Yet More Corporate Earnings Bull / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Having spent the better part of two months humbled by resistance near 950, the S&P finally took the bull by the horns and went on a tear. The pressure had been building and the excuse was that 48 out of 59 major US companies reported earnings before the close ahead of expectations with Ford and 3M the star turns. But if you scratch below the surface things are not so rosy. Top-line revenues are not nearly as strong, earnings are still down nearly 25% on a year ago and Microsoft provided a soggy start to after-hours trading. Nonetheless, the top of the old range has finally been breached. Note the Nasdaq 12 day winning streak is its best run since 1992.
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Thursday, July 23, 2009
Dow Disappoints, Nasdaq Continues Winning Streak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Underwhelming banking results from Morgan Stanley, Keycorp and Wells Fargo and a decline in energy prices dragged down a jaded looking Dow to a modest 0.39% decline on a listless days trading. But over at the Nasdaq they made it 11 up days in a row, as it continued to bask in the warm afterglow of Apple’s stellar results on strong IPhone and Mac sales. Starbucks surprised on the upside, sending the share price into orbit (up 18%, it’s biggest 1 day gain in 11 years). EBAY also impressed investors, while the less said about Qualcomm the better.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Onward And Upward For Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Equities are still on a roll with the S&P hitting an 8 month high, rising 1.1% yesterday. Caterpillar, Disney and Alcoa led the Dow up while CIT Group soared 70% on its 11th hour (temporary) expensive reprieve from bankruptcy. Meanwhile way out West, California lawmakers and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said they’ve struck a deal to close a $26 billion budget deficit that’s left the most-populous U.S. state paying bills with IOUs and its credit rating near junk. In other “bullish” news the free market arm of the administration, Government, I mean Goldman, Sachs now expects the S&P 500 to rise 15% from current levels to 1,060 during 2009. The previous guess was 940.
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