Category: Stock Index Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Sunday, September 13, 2009
Stock Market Top Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
This is the million dollar question...
SOS Timing Indicator
Indicators are at an extreme, this can suggest a top. We also have a key reversal date on 9/14 - which is Monday. So well recommend puts.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Markets Breakout Over Two Year Downtrend Lines / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The charts for the past month, if not more, have been suggesting, in normal times, that this market was about to take a big hit to the down side. After all, there have been existing massive negative divergences on many of the dailies on both the index charts and many individual stock charts, especially the leading stocks such as Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc. (GOOG), and more. It's even more pronounced on recent leaders such as the financial stocks, especially the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), or the Emerging Markets Telecommunications Fund Inc. (ETF) for that group of stocks. Just awful looking charts abound about everywhere.
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Saturday, September 12, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Uptrend Remains Intact and Dominant / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It is remarkable that after a 6% upmove in six sessions, the S&P 500 closed down only 0.13% on Friday.
Early in the session the SPX made a new multi-month peak at 1048.18 prior to pulling back a bit. The price weakness did NOT inflict any meaningful damage to the nearest-term September uptrend. Only a decline that breaks 1025 will inflict preliminary damage, while a breach of 1008 will exacerbate the damage to a point of concern.
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Friday, September 11, 2009
All the Major Stock Market Indices Closed at 2009 Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
All the major indexes, the Russell-2000, and the Semiconductor Index (SOX 325.82) all moved to new 2009 highs. We continue to monitor the SOX as the leader of this rally. Unfortunately, the Semiconductors holders which we regularly report on only move two cents higher, so there is a clear disconnect between this and the SOX.
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Thursday, September 10, 2009
Stock Market, If You Don't Like 'em, Then Don't Trade 'em / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Last night I read somewhere that the problem with the equity markets was that no one really liked them (except for Cramer), yet that was the precise reason why the markets continued to go up day after day - nobody really liked them. Kind of odd, I guess. However, as someone who likes to bet against the consensus, I can understand that sentiment. As we know, the markets will do their best to frustrate the most.
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Thursday, September 10, 2009
Stock Markets are Set to Break Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We were able to add QQQQ puts but our limit prices were never achieved for the SPY or DIA positions. The market has moved into uptrend mode overall with the Dow and S&P-500 on the cusp of entering that state (note that we have shown them in up trends in the table below but left the background color yellow which is neutral. The semiconductors have achieved and new closing high as has the NASDAQ-100. We have been looking for them to lead the markets higher and we expect the Dow and S&P-500 to follow them higher.
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Thursday, September 10, 2009
Stock Market Another Red Flag... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The fun stuff is going to end at some point folks. These negative divergences on the big leaders is going to kick in big time some day. Now? Months from now? My guess is, not yet, but we are seeing signs.
Look at the chart of Apple Inc. (AAPL) tonight. Look at that bearish engulfing stick today off of yesterday's gap up. Look at that massive negative divergence. One after the other on each new high. Same can be said for all the big cap leaders.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Stocks Market Rally in Trouble, Time to Short Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Martin Hutchinson writes: The stock market is up 51% from its March 9 lows. The leading economic indicators have turned sharply positive, showing gains for each of the last four months. Manufacturing is on the rebound. And banks are promising to pay record bonuses, as their earnings have rebounded.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
The Crumbliest Flakiest Stocks Bull Market Never Tasted Before / News_Letter / Stock Index Trading
The Market Oracle Newsletter September 7th, 2009 Issue #71 Vol. 3Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
S&P 500 Stock Market Trends Analysis for September 2009 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
When analyzing monthly stock market trends, I use the S&P 500 charts to identify important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Stock Market is Hanging Up Near the Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Mode.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Unemployment hits 28-Year High, Stock Market Soars... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We have to acknowledge our bullish BIAS and exit the short positions in the major index ETFs. We aren't confident yet that the recent highs that represent resistance will be immediately broken, but there is further room to run higher here before these levels are challenged. Tuesday is the first day when traders return from holidays and trading volume is expected to return to normal as compared to the light summer volumes.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Stock Market Trend, Looking for Clues in the Current Action / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Clues - Looking for clues to read the current action.
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer has issued a Buy Signal, Placing us in Buy Mode.
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Getting Ready To Average Into Short Stock Market Funds / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Trade Actions:
Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 57 or better
Buy RWM ( Short Russell ) at 48 or better
Monday, September 07, 2009
The Crumbliest Flakiest Stocks Bull Market Never Tasted Before / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The $17 billion hostile bid for Cadbury 'should' bring home the inherent underlying actual strength of this bull market as the bid signals that business is returning to normal. Today's bid by Kraft Foods sent the Cadbury stock price soaring by more than 38% and clearly illustrates that multinationals are increasingly awakening from credit crisis fear to taste greed at being able to pick up corporate giants such as Cadbury at rock bottom recession prices even after a 38% one day price hike. Watch this space for many more mega bids to come as the bull market momentum continues to gather steam as we have a long, long way to go before we reach the Merger and Acquisition mania levels associated with BULL market Peaks.
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Monday, September 07, 2009
Stock Market Rally in Retreat / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Are the bulls waving the white flag?
Maybe things aren't quite that dramatic, but two of my indicators are singing the same tune that I have been for over two weeks now. Not to sound like a broken record, I still think we will see some lower prices in this consolidation before the bulls come back to storm the castle and take over price action once again.
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Monday, September 07, 2009
Stock Market Not Quite Ready to Rollover Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
General Commentary: The system remains on a Neutral signal (with a bearish bias).
The markets don't seem quite ready to rollover just yet, but it seems that a corner was turned this past week.
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Monday, September 07, 2009
Stock Market Top Requiring Time to Develop / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
If a market top is developing, it will take several weeks to do so as the bullish extremes of the last several months need to be unwound. I have been stating the following for several weeks now: 1) the greatest gains are behind us; 2) the markets are to trade in a range with an upward bias; 3) there will be a bid under the market; 4) it will be tough to short or bet against this market for the foreseeable future.
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Saturday, September 05, 2009
Stock Market Critical Support Holds..... Consolidation Continues... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
A very interesting week has concluded with the market doing its usual number of head fakes both up and down, but with the greatest frustration, unquestionably felt by the bears who really had their hands around the neck of the bulls but simply couldn't get the job done. Something that has taken place many times over the past many weeks.
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Friday, September 04, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Jump in on Light Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We continue to be patient with our positions moving slightly against us. The very light trading volume seen makes it difficult to believe in this modest move. Our BIAS is still bullish so we continue to monitor the market moves to determine whether we will be forced to move back into a long position.