Category: Stock Index Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, December 14, 2009
Stock Market Bases Still Set Up Bullish... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It's an endless pit of nothing. I know that's what it feels like folks. A market that seemingly can't move. No volatility. Hours of the market trading in such a small range. We're not used to that after the experience of having the market blasting off from March until September. Seven sweet months of beautiful gains that spent very little time pulling back. A market that wanted nothing but higher seemingly every day. Then we get four months of this range bound market and we yearn for that type of market once again. Isn't going to happen but that doesn't mean we won't see another move higher in the near future. I believe we will.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
Stock Market Headwinds Abate Slightly / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Last week the price of crude oil lost almost 10% pushing our composite indicator that is constructed from the trends in gold, crude oil and yields on the 10 year Treasury back below the extreme line. See figure 1 a weekly chart of the S&P500 with the indicator in the lower panel.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
S&P 500 Trend Analysis, Techies Holding the Market Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Early Friday, futures seemed like all the rage in the low volume hours, pumping it ahead of retail numbers. After the numbers, techies took a good dump and that kept a damper on S&P for the day – Party Poopers!
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Sunday, December 13, 2009
Stock Bullish Trend Turning Sideways / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Last week, market action was decidedly mixed. The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 were barely up while both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were down. Most troubling is the lack of volume -- the persistent trend over the last month in what may be an aging bull market.
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Sunday, December 13, 2009
S&P Analysis for the Upcoming Week: Dec 14-18 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The S&P 500 which is a good representation of the overall stock market, is still very much range bound, and is likely to remain so until the new year. A very quiet Friday with little volume did little to inspire confidence to the contrary.
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Saturday, December 12, 2009
Stock Market Bases Setting Up Below Key 1121 S&P 500 Pivot.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The more I watch this market through its every day whipsaw, the more I am convinced that the next decent move is going to be a higher one. Please study the charts tonight that are being provided for you and notice how so many of the index charts are forming bases, longer-term ones as well, right beneath major breakout levels. 1120 is the price breakout on the S&P 500, but 1121 is the official 50% retrace level of the entire move from the Bull market high of 1576 to the March lows at 666. Many look at that type of retrace and say this is where bull phases go to die within a bigger picture bear market. I think we're going to take that level out in time but it hasn't and won't come easy.
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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Stock Market Marking Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices ended up on the day, but all the gains were made in the first few minutes. The indices gapped up, ran hard, reached 1808 on the Nasdaq 100 and just over 1106 on the S&P 500, but for the rest of the session backed and filled in a consolidative manner. Not a bad session for the bulls as support continued to hold at 1100 on the SPX and the 1798-1800 range on the NDX.
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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Stock Market Bases Remain...Financial's Weak.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Folks, there are only so many ways I can say the same thing day after day is this, the hardest trading market I've seen in a very long time. Every day there are great long and short set ups that fail for no good reason. Some work. Some do not and there's no rhyme or reason to it. Normal technical analysis just isn't working. Rotation everywhere in a whipsaw like fashion. It seems almost intentional the way that the powers that be are moving things around. Earlier this week we lost the top of the range and headed down and touched 1085 S&P 500 horizontal support where naturally the bulls came in, even though it looked bad, and saved the breakdown.
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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Warning, The Stock Market Is Extremely Overvalued Right Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Tom Dyson writes: Andrew Smithers is a world expert in stock market valuation...
Smithers is an "econometrician." He studies stock market statistics going back more than 100 years and creates indicators from these statistics to judge whether the stock market is cheap or expensive. His two favorite valuation indicators are named the "CAPE" and the "q."
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Stock Market Late Rally Erases Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices managed to have a very strong late run to wipe out early losses and end up in the plus column.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Stock Market Sentiment. What A Difference A Day Makes.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It is amazing how fast things can change. Yesterday seemed so gloom and doom and now, after today's action, things look much better. When you're in a trading range such as we are, and it's tough for sure, you have to keep perspective on the up as well as the down days. The up days may give a bit too much optimism, yet, the down days do the same in reverse. Yesterday got a lot of folks very bearish. The emotion of a very difficult consolidation.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2009
S&P Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The following is a predominantly technical analysis view of what to expect to in the stock market in the upcoming. We will use the S&P 500 as our reflection of the market. This can be used by day traders, swing traders or investor to gain insight into what is unfolding, what to expect and what to look for.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Stock Market Reversal At The Top....Consolidation Is Alive!!! / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
I know today feels bad. It looks bad as well. A nice rolling top now in place with those MACD's and stochastics crossing and pointing lower. Every reason to believe, if you're a bear at heart, that the end has arrived for this rally. That may well be the case but by no means is that the case with what we have at today's close.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Stock Market Indices Close Moderately Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets opened lower and despite a strong snapback rally in the morning rolled over in the afternoon and closed moderately lower today.
The day started out with a gap lower. They rallied back with a 3-wave rally, with the third leg of the wave being a very sharp one, but overhead resistance at the declining tops lines prevailed. They then moved steadily lower in an orderly fashion for the rest of the session, closing not far off the session lows on the S&P 500, but substantially above them on Nasdaq 100.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Good News to Bring Bad News Bears For Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The title of this piece actually says it all if you have been following our work for any length of time. The understanding here is because our faulty and fraudulent markets are based more on speculator betting practices rather than fundamentals, regularly assaulting the sensibilities of unwary participants, the majority of time a steady flow of bad news actually supports stocks, not the opposite as most straight forward thinking people would assume. How can this be? As mentioned above, for the majority of time bad news causes most speculators to naturally be bearish, which in turn unfortunately causes them to run out and buy puts or bear funds on stocks, who in turn buy puts on your behalf.
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Monday, December 07, 2009
Stock Market Another Day Of Nothing..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
And that's what we have basically every single day. The hardest part being is how difficult it is to short or go long stocks. Stocks set up to fall blast higher and stocks set up to soar fall apart. That's pretty much an every day occurrence. The market is getting lots of good economic news but this 1100 area is not allowing the market to move further along. Any time we get a bit over 1100, no matter what good news hits, it falls back from the breakout zone.
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Monday, December 07, 2009
Stock Market Sloppy Way to Start the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets had a sloppy session to start the week and ended mixed. The day started out with a little bit of firmness. They reached resistance at 1110-11 on the S&P 500 and 798-800 on the Nasdaq 100, but were unable to punch through. Then they backed off and retested the lows on 2-3 occasions, narrowed and got very quiet mid-morning and then tried to rally around mid-day. When the indices failed to break through, they rolled over hard in early to mid afternoon and then over the last hour or so bounced back in what appeared to be bear-flag consolidations.
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Monday, December 07, 2009
Interesting Longer Term Bets Developing in Currency, Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
A couple of very interestng stories on Bloomberg today, regarding some long term directional bets by what I assume to be big players. Effectively it's the same "dollar inverse" trade but in reverse ...keep in mind dollar down = stock market up is not the traditional relationship, it's just something that has taken a life of its own as Ben Bernanke has provided an unlimited fire hose of US dollars to make us all feel better via inflated asset values. There are some fascinating tidbits in these stories.
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Monday, December 07, 2009
Top Sentiment Expert Says Short the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Tom Dyson
writes: Jason Goepfert is America's leading expert on stock market sentiment...
Sentiment shows you how the majority of investors are positioned in a market. Most of the time, it's useless information. Bulls and bears will be roughly balanced and there won't be any opportunity.
Monday, December 07, 2009
Pondering the Stock Markets Next Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Heres our indicator positioning and our thoughts on the week ahead...
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