Category: Stock Index Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Friday, November 27, 2009
S&P 500 Temporarily Falls to 20 Day Moving Average, Russell 2000 Back to "Broken" / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Overnight, S&P futures had fallen all the way down to 1070, but as has been the case so many times the past year furious buying in premarket pushed the market higher in the 2 hours before the US markets opened. Hence domestic markets launched far above the worse levels overnight. The S&P has jumped as I write all the way back up to test its 20 day moving average from below (1090)...
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Friday, November 27, 2009
Is This The End of The Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
There are really no isolated incidents in the world. Today we are waking up to the news that Dubai might be defaulting on its debt. Stock Markets around the world are plummeting. There are many other issues that hardly made the news. Firstly Vietnam devalued their currency and their populace as Mark Mobius has coined the statement has entered into a “Surge of Fear”. There is confusion and uncertainty once again. Vietnam raised interest rates to try to lower inflation.
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Thursday, November 26, 2009
Stock Market Grinding Higher... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The market got some very good and unexpected news on jobless claims this morning coming in at 466,000 versus expectations near 500,000. There was also the Report on Durable Goods that wasn't nearly as positive. The market popped initially on the Claims Report but pulled back thereafter. There was a small gap up once we opened. The rest of the day was spent in a small trading range. One that grinded higher throughout but in very tiny bursts. We closed right on 1110 resistance. Good action for what's known to be a retail day higher for the market.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Stock Market Indices Consolidate Early Surge and Close Strong / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets had a very strong start to the week with a huge gap up at the opening and ran very sharply higher early on as shorts got hammered. They tested the highs on the S&P 500, reaching up to 1112, just 1 1/2 points or so from its 2009 peak. At that point the Nasdaq 100, which did reach over 1800, got 12-13 points from its high and slightly negatively diverged. They then backed off, gave back a good chunk of the gains, stabilized by mid-afternoon, and then in the last 25 minutes came on again with a surge and padded the gains.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Stock Market Gaps Up But Holds Resistance... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The overseas markets were up nicely last night. Asia started the run and Europe followed. This led to our futures starting higher and running throughout the night. They didn't fade as the morning wore on allowing a run up to the 1111 S&P resistance zone. We also breached slightly the 2148 Nasdaq gap, but ultimately these levels proved to be too tough near term for the bulls, and the day was spent pulling back off these levels although solid gains were made across the board. The bulls can't really celebrate because the massive resistance levels were again too tough. Not enough buyers.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Stock Market Approaching Sell and Hold / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
With the General Market (OEX) registering new recovery highs last week, and the New Economy stocks falling to three (3) week lows, the final "weight of evidence" has fallen into place for a sustained correction in the eight (8) to 12 percent range over the next two (2) to (3) months.
Big target 100.88 basis the SPY which is major Fibonacci Cluster CONFLUENCE level - - a 9.7 percent correction from the high.
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Monday, November 23, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Trend Analysis and Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The following article was published for the benefit of subscribers on Saturday November 23rd 2009. All indices and commodities are trading inversely to the US dollar index at present, so as long as the defined trend of the USD remains intact, everything else should trade inversely. Gold is presently in a parabolic move, which has repercussions mentioned a few days earlier…on to analysis of the S&P 500 index:
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Monday, November 23, 2009
Stock Market Long, Immediate and Short-term Index Trading Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Welcome to The J.E.D.I. Way.
LONG-TERM TREND (> 1YR) OF THE MARKETS: DOWN
(See Long-Term Chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1974 for further details)
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Sunday, November 22, 2009
Stock Market Expected to be Quiet Over Thanksgiving Holiday / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
In holiday shortened week, there won't be much to gleam from market action in the coming week.
Over the past couple of months, Monday's have been kind to the bulls. Wednesday will be light as traders ready for Turkey Day on Thursday. Friday is another snooze fest that seems to go to the bulls --why spoil a great American holiday?
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Sunday, November 22, 2009
Range Bound Stock Market Overbought / Forecasts / Stock Index Trading
The daily charts were very overbought a few days ago but selling has taken them down off very overbought to a more neutral position, but if you want to be exact, you could say they're still a bit more on the overbought side. The 60-minute or short-term time frame charts are now very oversold. Three days of selling will do that for sure. This should equate to some move higher early next week but don't expect the moon on any move higher. That isn't likely to take place until we get a more intense unwinding of those daily charts. Probably to, or near, oversold so that's not happening any time soon.
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Sunday, November 22, 2009
Stock Market High Drama Week with No Material Gain or Loss / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Tight action and a negative bias ended another OpEx week.
Last week was a rather high drama week with no material price gain or loss.
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Saturday, November 21, 2009
Possible Stock Market Top Or Emergent Sideways Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
You know the stock market is in trouble when the only explanation for stock price movements is the direction of the dollar. Market goes up -- must be the dollar going down. Market goes down like last week -- must be the dollar firming up.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Stock Market Rydex Timers Persistence / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel. This value is now at its lowest point since the rally began in March, 2009.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Stock Market Some Selling... Should Be More...Nothing Terrible / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
A lateral range is simply that, a lateral range. It frustrates. It's annoying. The bulls want things to break out and the bears want things to break down. The bulls have had the best of it for sure and we have come oh so close many times to making that breakout move. We were on the cusp once again and once again the bears came in at the very top of those wedges and took the market down, especially the technology stocks. Those are the stocks that are most overbought and to be blunt, most frothy thus they took the biggest hit.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Recovery Rally in Ultra Short S&P 500 Proshares SDS / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
This is an extraordinary chart picture from the high in the UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (NYSE: SDS) at 118.24 (3/06/09) into this week's low at 35.50. The most salient feature is the fact that RSI momentum hit its most oversold level on 8/04 at 45.37, and thereafter, each successive lower price low has been accompanied by a higher low in the RSI. Each one of the divergences produced a potent rally, but none of the rallies has been able to hurdle its prior peak.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Dow and NASDAQ Stock Indices Ready for Major Reversal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It may surprise you as to which indices have had the most comeback from the lows seen in March. In today's video we take a close look at both the Dow and NASDAQ indices.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Is the S&P Stock Market Index About to Plunge or Headed Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
In my latest video I hope to answer those questions and show you what I think could happen to this market in the near-term.
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
Stock Market Rydex Market Timers Buying the Dips / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The Rydex market timers are buying the dip to an extreme degree.
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel.
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
Stock Market Indices Rally From Early Losses to Close Nearly Flat / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices managed to come back again in the afternoon to close just beneath the flatline and positive on the OEX. But it was a generally narrowly mixed picture at the close.
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
Stock Market Good Selling.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
If you're still bullish overall as I am, although nothing out of hand, then today is what you wanted to see. There was a chance for a lot more selling than we saw based on two very poor economic reports that came out pre-market. A very low number of new home buyers. 80,000 shy to be exact (520,000 vs 600,000 expected). Also, a higher than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) (cost of prices to consumers) at 0.3 vs 0.2 expected. Both numbers poor. Each one by themselves is enough to take a market down hard when it's right at resistance and overbought on the daily and short-term charts. (I was even a little cautious and that’s why there’s only one position, Anadarko Petroleum (APC), in our model portfolio.)
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