Category: Recession 2008 - 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Real Economy Continues to Sink Despite Economic Stimulus and Bear Market Rally / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The economy continued to shrink in the first quarter of 2009 at an annual pace of 6.1 percent, making it the worst recession in more than 50 years. Gross Domestic Product slipped into negative territory from January to March for back-to-back quarters of negative 6 percent growth. The news of falling GDP was preceded on Tuesday by a dismal housing report which showed that housing prices have continued their historic downward plunge with only modest improvement. Since their peak in July 2006, housing prices have dropped 31 percent, falling 18.6 percent in the last year alone. The rate of decline has decelerated slightly but--on their present trajectory--prices are on target to tumble 45 to 50 percent from their 2006 highs. Another 20 percent loss in home equity means another $4 trillion loss for US homeowners.
Friday, May 01, 2009
The State of the U.S. Consumer / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andy_Sutton
This week’s surprise Consumer Confidence report gives us yet another reason to take a step back and survey the landscape. Much of the recent focus has deservedly been on unemployment while little focus has been given to other aspects of the consumer and more importantly, the overall state of the consumer’s mind. Clearly there are several enigmas manifesting themselves in both confidence and spending patterns. This week we’ll take a closer look at some of these issues, and probably generate quite a bit of debate as well.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Volcker Says U.S. Economy is ‘Leveling Off’ even though GDP Shrinks Most in 50 Years / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
GDP shrank at an annual rate of 6.1% according to the First Quarter 2009 Advance GDP Report.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Latest U.S. Housing and Consumer Confidence Numbers Point to Sustainable Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The U.S. housing market is showing signs of stabilizing just as the American consumer is demonstrating a renewed willingness to start saving less and spending more, according to reports yesterday (Tuesday) from two closely watched economic surveys. The reports buoyed investor hopes that a blossoming economic recovery may well be sustainable.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Global Economy on the Disastrous Road of Hope / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Those without hope, despair. Those without faith, hope.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Swine Flu to Accelerate Collapse of Global Economy / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
Mankind has finally become aware that the financial crisis is not the most dangerous thing in the world. The world has come across a new danger – the swine flu virus. Many explain yesterday’s reduction of stock markets with the threat of the epidemic of the new disease. The struggle against the distribution of the new virus has made a number of countries ban the imports of pork. Russia introduced a ban too.
Monday, April 27, 2009
How To Survive When the Economy Stinks / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LewRockwell
Cristina C. Espina writes: So your economy stinks. It’s not as bad as you think. Really.Let me explain the view from several cultures away . . .
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Monday, April 27, 2009
Financial & Economic Crisis: Are We at the End of the Beginning, or the Beginning of the End? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Kevin_Geary
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Winston Churchill —at the Lord Mayor's Luncheon, Mansion House following the victory at El Alamein in North Africa, London, 10 November 1942.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Improving Economic Indicators as Housing Market Shows Signs of Stabilising / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading Index - continues to send message of weak economic conditions
“The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) dropped -0.3% in March 2009, after a revised 0.2% decline during February. The LEI posted the last increase in June 2008. On a year-to-year basis, the quarterly average of the LEI fell 3.8% after a 4.0% decline in the fourth quarter. The LEI appears to have established a bottom in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Back to the Future Recession 2010-11, Professors Teaching Economic Garbage / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
MV=PQ
Financial Innovation: The Round Trip
2010-11: Back to the Future Recession
The Fed at the Crossroads
How Did We Get It So Wrong?
The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas. You can also go there to sign up to get this letter sent to you free each week.
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Friday, April 24, 2009
UK Economic Crash, GDP Contracts by 1.9% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK GDP contracted by a shockingly high 1.9% for the first quarter of 2009, which was set against consensus forecasts for a 1.5% contraction. Barely 2 days ago the Chancellor Alistair Darling forecast GDP contraction of 3.5% for 2009, 1.25% growth for 2010 and 3.5% growth for 2011. At the time I stated that Alistair Darling forecasts implied a miraculous turnaround and was set against my own forecast as of February 09 for 2009 GDP contraction of 4.75%, with peak to trough contraction of -6.3%.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Global Economic Depression Unemployment- Learning from Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Stathis
I ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depression. http://www.nytimes.com..
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Friday, April 24, 2009
UK GDP Forecast to Contract by 1.5% for 1st Quarter 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP data for the first quarter of 2009 to be released this morning is expected by the majority of economists to contract by 1.5% despite panic measures of zero interest rates and quantitative easing which however have yet to show through in economic data. The Market Oracle forecast as of Feb 2009 is for GDP contraction of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2009.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
UK Unemployment Targets 3 Million This Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Unemployment shot up by 71,000 for January 09 data to 12 year high of 2.1 million to officially stand at 6.7% of the workforce, 2.1 million is exactly on target as per my forecast of October 2008. However the more up to date unemployment claimant count data continued to soar, rising by 64,000 in March to 1.52 million, which is up more than 50% on the 970,000 figure of 6 months ago and acts as a leading leading indicator which signals much higher forward unemployment data as illustrated by the below graph
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Strategic Economic, Financial Markets and Geopolitical Forecasts for 2nd Quarter 2009 / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
Dear Friends: I've been in this business a long time. Some days it feels like a very long time. But never in all the years that I've been in the financial markets have I felt like business per se has less impact on my investment decisions. Let me explain.
GM shares have gone from being a claim on earnings from car sales to being a call option on whether the US government will extend another lifeline. Banks' capital structures have gone from being the province of Boards of Directors and CFOs to the "expertise" of Congressional committees and appointed regulators. Used to be when I thought about Financial Centers New York and London came to mind. Instead now I have to think about Washington and Brussels.
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Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Debt Implosion Recession to Continue Into 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed's $12.8 trillion of monetary stimulus has triggered a six week-long surge in the stock market. Think of it as Bernanke's Bear Market Rally, a torrent of capital gushing from every rusty pipe in the financial system. The Fed's so-called "lending facilities" have gone far beyond their original purpose which was to backstop a broken system. Now they're leaking liquidity into the equities markets and sending stocks soaring while the "real" economy sinks to the bottom of the fish tank. That's how the Fed does business these days; plenty of tasty crepes for the Wall Street kingpins and table-scraps for the lumpen masses.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Looking for Signs of Economic Recovery From the Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Is the economic recovery at hand? No, we still are mired in a recession that is going to be of the longest duration in the post-WWII era (the previous record was 16 months) and is likely to involve the largest annual average contraction in real GDP for a single year (the record to beat is a decline of 1.9%, which occurred in 1982). But there is a good chance that the worst for the U.S. economy in terms of quarterly contractions in real GDP is behind us, occurring in the fourth quarter of 2008. We currently are forecasting an annualized rate of contraction in real GDP of 3.8% in the first quarter of this year vs. the annualized rate of contraction of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008. So, economic activity still is descending, but our forecast has the rate of descent moderating. We do not expect any growth in real GDP until the fourth quarter of this year.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Oil, Cars and Consumerism and The Global Economic Crisis: Discussion On The Great Depression II / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Submissions
Dr. Raju M. Mathew writes: Global Economic Crisis - The world is under a great economic crisis. For the conventional economists it is only a Recession and not a Depression at all, for their partial analytical techniques, over-simplified models with unrealistic assumptions and over emphasis on data. It may take at least five years for them to realize that it would be a Great Depression and by that time it may be over. When Cybernetics is employed for the study of the working of the global economy as a whole with multi-sector approaches on the basis of the deeper understanding of Political Economy, we are forced to admit that this is not a simple Recession, but a Great Depression that requires not only economic stimulus but Ethical or Spiritual and Political Stimulus also to recover.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Financial Markets and Economy Outlook 2009, Inflation / Deflation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation and our experience to be rising inflation and not a serious problem with deflation.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
US Economy- Housing Market Bottoming, Credit Crisis Easing? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Retail sales - story of weak consumer spending
“Retail sales fell 1.1% in March following a 0.3% increase in February (previously estimated as a 0.1% decline). Retail sales of January were revised up slightly to a 1.9% gain from a 1.8% increase. In March, the 1.6% drop in gasoline sales accounted for some of the decline. In addition, auto sales were reported as a 0.9% drop despite the increase in unit sales to 9.8 million units from 9.2 million in February. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales fell 0.8% in March after a 0.7% jump in February.