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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Politics

Monday, August 19, 2019

The Geopolitical Consequences of a Coming Recession / Politics / Recession 2020

By: Antonius_Aquinas

With the recent ominous inversion of the 2-10 year yield curve and its near infallible predictive recessionary power, the consequences for the economy are plain to see, however, what has not been spoken of by pundits will be the effect of a recession on US foreign policy. If a recession comes about prior to November 2020, or if economic indicators such as GDP plummet even further, the chances of a Trump re-election is extremely problematic even if the Democrats nominate a socialist nut case such as Bernie Sanders or Pocahontas.

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Politics

Friday, August 16, 2019

Epstein Is Like JFK All Over Again / Politics / Conspiracy Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s been a few days since I did anything but my news aggregator, and that’s not so strange, since so much of it ‘encircled’ Jeffrey Epstein. Now that he’s supposedly died, though we have no proof of that, from an ‘apparent suicide’, there are other topics as well that we can turn to.

But let’s start with Epstein just for good measure. We still don’t have an autopsy report, though New York City Chief Medical Examiner Barbara Sampson apparently performed one on Epstein on Sunday, which private pathologist Michael Baden “observed on behalf of Epstein’s representatives”.

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Politics

Thursday, August 15, 2019

US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

We hear quite a bit today about the issue of Federal Reserve independence. The crux of the argument usually centers  on monetary policy executed by the Fed versus opinions of politicians and others who want and expect something different, which they believe will provide more favorable results.

President Trump has been ardently vocal in demanding that the Fed be more aggressive in cutting interest rates.  He also wants, and is encouraging, action that would result in a weaker US dollar. He believes that it would be good for American businesses. His reasoning is that a weaker US dollar would make American-made goods more competitive.

Whether or not the President is correct doesn’t matter for purposes of this article. What is important is that there is a wide difference of opinion between the Federal Reserve and its current policies (re: Jerome Powell) as compared to the wishes of the United States government (re: President Trump).

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Politics

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments / Politics / Travel & Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

If your visiting London then your likely going to visit the Embankment gardens whether your aware of them or not, given that they are situated just next to the house of parliaments and surrounded by several prominent buildings such as New Scotland Yard.

Victoria Embankment Gardens are part of the chain of open spaces along Victoria Embankment opened in 1865. The compact park features various statues including that of John Stuart Mill, Lady Henry Somerset statue of girl with begging bowl, William Howard Forster statue, and a memorial to the poet Robert Burns amongst many others. Unfortunately as is the case for many statues, the are under permanent attack from pigeons! And tend to be covered in acidic pigeon poop as this video illustrates.

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Politics

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Social Media Civil War / Politics / Social Media

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The US government has to come up with very very strong legislation for social media, and it has to do that very soon. Because if it doesn’t, it risks those same social media inciting a civil war (that’s no hyperbole, that is real) on American soil.

And beyond as well, but as Donald Trump said about European efforts to curtail Twitter, Facebook et al’s activities, they’re American companies and hence America’s responsibility. Well, cool, but that means you have to do your job, and you ain’t doing it. Those EU efforts by the way were all about financial issues, tax paying etc., not inciting civil wars or being undemocratic. In short, Brussels doesn’t get it yet either.

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Politics

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Neoliberalism Has Met Its Match in China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Ellen_Brown

When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, commentators were asking why. According to official data, the economy was rebounding, unemployment was below 4% and gross domestic product growth was above 3%. If anything, by the Fed’s own reasoning, it should have been raising rates.

Market pundits explained that we’re in a trade war and a currency war. Other central banks were cutting their rates, and the Fed had to follow suit in order to prevent the dollar from becoming overvalued relative to other currencies. The theory is that a cheaper dollar will make American products more attractive in foreign markets, helping our manufacturing and labor bases.

Over the weekend, President Trump followed the rate cuts by threatening to impose, on Sept. 1, a new 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese products. China responded by suspending imports of U.S. agricultural products by state-owned companies and letting the value of the yuan drop. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 770 points, its worst day in 2019. The war was on.

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Politics

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

The Fourth Turning Trump Economics / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

In Part One of this article I laid out the unsustainable economic conditions which will drive the next phase of this Fourth Turnings and detailed the economic factors which drove the previous three American Fourth Turnings.

Strauss and Howe, when writing The Fourth Turning in 1997, did not know the exact circumstances and events which would propel the next Turning. But their study of economic and demographic trends along with the attitudes of generations and historical precedents in prior Fourth Turnings, led them to conclude the driving factors of this Crisis would be debt, global disorder and civic decay.

As I watch what is currently happening in this country and around the world, it is evident to me they nailed it. The volcanic eruption in 2008 unleashed a torrent of molten lava, which continues to flow along channels of distress, but is currently threatening to burst free of these channels and wreak worldwide financial and physical devastation. A multitude of possibilities described by Strauss and Howe below are already happening or will happen in the next few years.

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Politics

Monday, August 05, 2019

A Tale of Two Cummings / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Last weekend, I noticed that two of the main newsmakers were both named Cummings, one in the US, the other in the UK. At first glance they don’t look like family, but I’ll readily admit I can’t be sure of that. What I do know is that both are symbolic of what’s wrong with the political systems they figure in.

Also last weekend, I saw a comment somewhere, think it was Twitter, that said something in the vein of: let’s hope the British don’t make the same mistake with Boris Johnson that the Americans made -and make- with Donald Trump, that is, labeling every single thing he does as “Bad”, because then they would lose all of their credibility, fast.

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Politics

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Climate Change and the Emergent Global Ideology / Politics / Climate Change

By: Mark_Blair

whether one is or is not convinced of anthropogenic global warming just isn’t the point. The point is that it’s the emergent global ideology, the perfect opportunity for discredited communists and bureaucrats to posture as saviors. (And we’ll discuss below The Other (Actual) Environmental Emergency: species loss, groundwater depletion, plastics, peak oil.)

But there’s a huge fly in the ointment: the west’s economic dependence on China, the brutal capit-ommunist dictatorship that keeps us in tube socks. China is – seems to be – in the final phase of biggie big big currency debasement.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Foreign Policy Betrayal of America / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

Very little has changed when it comes to the elites who control public policy. Foreign affairs have been shaped by an un-American tribe of Judas' who seek to rule over real patriots. America has been systematically sold out for well over a century by deviants of our culture, economics, politics and especially religion. A legitimate foreign policy, above all, needs to protect our own country and her own people. Abdicating those responsibilities to benefit Israel is treason. Regretfully, most of the populace is so afraid of being labeled an anti-Semitic that they eagerly suspend rational thinking to be a kosher supporter.

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Politics

Monday, July 29, 2019

Odd Business at Twitter / Politics / Social Media

By: Stephen_Merrill

In today’s political world, there is one place everyone must join, even without a Facebook account.

Twitter is the online platform that has become the singular global square for interactive discussion of political people and events.  Surprisingly, Twitter has no real competition as the titan for this niche in the West and well beyond.   The far smaller Reddit does not have the focus on politics that Twitter offers, though you will find on Reddit far better discussion of public policy issues.  Facebook’s market-share in this space has steadily diminished.

Twitter’s top-dog status on political talk is also in place when compared to platforms that concentrate on a single country’s own market.  None match Twitter’s usage in those countries. 

Twitter at first helped make Donald Trump the President without really trying to.  Then Trump became the guarantor of Twitter’s dominance in its marketplace, despite Twitter’s Leftist identity. 

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Politics

Monday, July 29, 2019

The Ever-Political IMF Meddlers Give Boris Johnson Unsolicited Advice / Politics / Global Financial System

By: Steve_H_Hanke

No sooner than Boris Johnson put his foot over the threshold of 10 Downing Street, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offered its unsolicited advice to the newly elected Tory Prime Minister. Johnson won the right to replace the hapless Theresa May by pledging to remove Britain from the EU by October 31, 2019, “deal or no deal.”

Enter the IMF. In a preemptive strike, the Philosopher Kings threw cold water on the idea of a no deal, asserting that it would be a disaster. Talk about entering a domestic quarrel without an invitation.

But, such meddling is nothing new for the IMF. Indeed, a bipartisan Congressional commission (The International Financial Advisory Commission, known as the Meltzer Commission) concluded in 2000 that the IMF interferes too much in the domestic politics of member countries. Just recall the IMF’s involvement in toppling Indonesian President Suharto in 1998. This scandalous episode was confirmed by no less than former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger. I would add that the IMF propensity to interfere has become much more pronounced since the days of the last great Managing Director of the IMF Jacques de Larosière (1978-1987).

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Politics

Monday, July 29, 2019

Why The Government Has Screwed Us Again / Politics / US Politics

By: Rodney_Johnson

I’ve got friends on both sides of the political aisle.

Some are huge Trump supporters. They’re giddy over his tweets about “The Squad.” They think, why not call out people who demean the country? And if they don’t like it here, why don’t they just go anywhere else?

And how about enforcing the rule of law once in a while by sticking to our immigration policies? We’re not rounding up migrants because they come from other countries; we’re demanding that they comply with the law, which means leaving the country when their asylum claims have been denied after a hearing.
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Politics

Monday, July 29, 2019

Trump Debt Deficits Then and Now : What a Difference 3 Years Make! / Politics / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets have been consolidating their recent gains.

A big move in metals markets could come after the Fed’s policy meeting next Wednesday. Of course, the magnitude and direction of the move will depend on what Chairman Jerome Powell and company do and say.

Central bankers are under immense political pressure to lower interest rates and resume purchases of government bonds. A recent downturn in manufacturing and home sales data may well give them cover to roll out new stimulus even as the stock market sits near a record high.

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Politics

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Brexit Politics and Algorithms / Politics / BrExit

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s a development that has long been evident in continental Europe, and that has now arrived on the shores of the US and UK. It is the somewhat slow but very certain dissolution of long-existing political parties, organizations and groups. That’s what I was seeing during the Robert Mueller clown horror show on Wednesday.

Mueller was not just the Democratic Party’s last hope, he was their identity. He was the anti-Trump. Well, he no longer is, he is not fit to play that role anymore. And there is nobody to take it over who is not going to be highly contested by at least some parts of the party. In other words: it’s falling apart.

And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s a natural process, parties change as conditions do and if they don’t do it fast enough they disappear. Look at the candidates the Dems have. Can anyone imagine the party, post-Mueller, uniting behind Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders or Kamala Harris? And then for one of them to beat Donald Trump in 2020?

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Politics

Friday, July 26, 2019

Trump Kills the Tea Party / Politics / US Politics

By: Peter_Schiff

After claiming to be the greatest at just about everything, Donald Trump has finally found an area where he can stake a credible claim. By negotiating a disastrous budget deal with Democrats, the President could become the greatest creator of government debt in the history of the country. While Trump is selling the two-year deal as a major victory because it increases military spending and removes the possibility of a government shutdown for two years, in reality, the agreement to suspend the debt ceiling and push annual deficits even further above the trillion dollar mark may only succeed in destroying the Republican Party as we know it.

The Tea Party wave of 2009 and 2010, a Republican movement born in reaction to the budget blowouts of the Obama Presidency, is now officially dead. It's ironic that as Trump hammered the final nail into the Tea Party's coffin, no one seemed happier than the corpse itself! There was hardly a word of discomfort from all the Republican Senators and Congressmen who had so loudly railed against debt when the other party occupied the White House. There is simply no legitimate way that Republicans will ever be able to argue again that they are the party of fiscal discipline. They may try, but only the most partisan and credulous voters will buy it.

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Politics

Thursday, July 25, 2019

UK Heatwave - Sheffield Temperature Hit's 39.1c for Record Hottest July Day / Politics / Climate Change

By: Anika_Walayat

The UK like much of europe is experiencing a heatwave that has seen July records broken across the continent. Today, 25th of July was the UK's turn to set a string of new record highs across the land including in the city of Sheffield that busted through it's previous July high of 36c and the UK previous highest temperature of 36.7c (July 1st at heathrow airport), even beating Met office forecasts of 38.5c by hitting 39.1c during the afternoon and likely a touch higher in some locations later in the afternoon as this video from Sheffield illustrates.

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Politics

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

The Cheapest Way to Save the Planet Grows Like a Weed / Politics / Climate Change

By: Ellen_Brown

Planting billions of trees across the world is by far the cheapest and most efficient way to tackle the climate crisis. So states a Guardian article, citing a new analysis published in the journal Science. The author explains:

As trees grow, they absorb and store the carbon dioxide emissions that are driving global heating. New research estimates that a worldwide planting programme could remove two-thirds of all the emissions that have been pumped into the atmosphere by human activities, a figure the scientists describe as “mind-blowing”.

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Politics

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Why Exponential AI Machine Learning Future Trend Will Change EVERYTHING! / Politics / AI

By: Adnaan_Walayat

We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.

“Success in creating effective A.I.,” said the late Stephen Hawking, “could be the biggest event in the history of our civilization. Or the worst. We just don’t know.” Are we creating the instruments of our own destruction or exciting tools for our future survival? Once we teach a machine to learn on its own—as the programmers behind AlphaGo have done, to wondrous results—where do we draw moral and computational lines?

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Politics

Sunday, July 21, 2019

What’s With all the Weird Weather?  / Politics / Climate Change

By: Richard_Mills

In January 2018, something strange happened in the Sahara Desert: it snowed. The Algerian town of Ain Sefra, named the “Gateway to the Sahara”, reportedly received up to an inch, barely enough to get the average North American out of bed early to scrape the car, but for North Africans, the outlier snowfall would have been magical; it was only the third time in 40 years that the Sahara Desert, one of the hottest places on earth, has received snow. (the desert gets very cold at night but even if it dips below freezing, any precipitation that crystallizes to snow usually melts right away)

A year later, extreme heat and cold were experienced in Australia and Russia. Temperatures at Port Augusta, South Australia, shot up to 49 degrees Celsius, on the same day, Jan. 7, as the mercury plunged to -56 in parts of Russia. That’s numbingly cold, but not as bone-chilling as in January 2018, when a blast of -67 cold air hit Russia’s remote Yakuta region - low enough to freeze eyelashes. 

Can these outlier weather events be explained by climate change? 

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