Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 24, 2017
Russia Campaigns for the Le Pen French Presidency / Politics / France
By: STRATFOR
The European Union's busy election season is an important campaign opportunity, not only for the politicians running, but also for the Kremlin. Several leaders and governments around the world have accused Moscow of coordinating disinformation campaigns to influence other countries' political affairs over the past year. The Kremlin quadrupled its spending on media activities abroad in its latest federal budget, and since half its projected expenditures are labeled confidential, Moscow may well be devoting hundreds of millions more to the cause. Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia's legislature and a top political strategist, has been stumping across the European Union this campaign season, meeting with representatives of nationalist parties such as Alternative for Germany. And now Moscow has turned its focus toward France as the country gears up for two months of presidential and legislative elections.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Emmanuel Macron vs Marine Le Pen Round 2 - Can BrExit Factor Deliver Le Pen Victory? / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
France is heaving a temporary sigh of relief as the nightmare scenario of a far right Le Pen vs a far left Melenchon round 1 win failed to materialise, instead that which has always been most probable has come to pass, where the two candidates with the most votes going into the second and final round of the French Presidential election will be centrist Emmanuel Macron (23.8%) vs far right Marine Le Pen (21.7%).
Sunday, April 23, 2017
The Upsides and Risks of May's Snap UK Election Decision / Politics / UK General Election
By: STRATFOR
The decision by Prime Minister Theresa May to call a snap election took the United Kingdom somewhat by surprise. When word went out early Tuesday that she was to make an announcement an hour later, rumors about what she would say rumbled across the country, touching on everything from the possible death of the queen to the announcement of direct rule in Northern Ireland. The idea that she would call a snap election initially was dismissed in light of her previous flat denials, but once the other possibilities were eliminated, an election was all that could remain.
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Saturday, April 22, 2017
Le Pen vs Melenchon Election Doomsday for France and EU - Hard Left vs Hard Right / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last French poll ahead of Sunday's first round in the French presidential election is resulting in a three horse race from which the 2 front runners will go through to the second round. Centrist Macron leads far right Le Pen by 1% on 23.5% against 22.5% with far left Melenchon snapping at her heels on 21.5%, all within the margins of polling error of 3%! Which means there could easily be a doomsday scenario outcome for France and the European Union, one of the two disruptive anti-EU candidates, Hard Left vs Hard Right going into the second round. Where Le Pen would seek to immediately take France out of the Euro-zone and Anti-German pro Putin Melenchon would seek to impose a 100% tax rate on those earning above e360,000 triggering a French recession, and where his policies of stimulus through printing hundreds of billions of euro debt would also inevitably mean France leaving the Euro-zone, as the ECB controls the printing of Euro's and not the central banks of Eurozone members.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War / Politics / WW3
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Central Asia is crumbling. The speed and extent of this leans in part on political and economic shifts in Russia, China, Afghanistan, and more. Geography is the main reason outside forces are shaping the growth of Central Asia.
Always trapped between major powers such as Russia and China, Central Asia is at risk of war.
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Friday, April 21, 2017
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's anti-establishment Brexit contagion could once more be on the march by spreading from its heavy influence on the US Presidential election, that allowed an alt-reality TV star to con his way into the White House, and thus could similarly allow France's far right Marine Le Pen funded by Putin's regime to squeak her way into the Elysee Palace.
Whilst it is beyond the scope of this video to consider all of the ramifications of a potential Le Pen victory for the French people, one thing is for certain that it would greatly destabilise the European Union as a Le Pen regime would be pro-Brexit and soon announce Frances own FrExit EU Referendum which would amount to the death of the European Union.
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Friday, April 21, 2017
US War on Whistleblowers / Politics / US Politics
By: Stephen_Lendman
Truth-telling in America is endangered. Free and open expression is our most fundamental right, all others threatened without it.
Exposing government wrongdoing is courageous and essential. Obama waged war on press freedom and whistleblowing. Trump continues his outrageous agenda.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
The Truth is a Dangerous Thing / Politics / Propaganda
By: Andy_Sutton
This time in history might be like no other – or at a minimum is on a much bigger scale. There is more access to information, analysis, and expert opinions than ever. Obviously, everyone claims to be telling ‘the truth’. A few psychopathic individuals notwithstanding, nobody sets out in the business of providing information, then says ‘But we’re going to lie like a rug, 24/7, how about them apples?’. Everyone is telling the truth. The odd thing about all this is that the stories that come out of these ‘truth telling’ outfits couldn’t be further apart from each other. That leaves the average person with a distinct problem – it is up to YOU to find the truth. To seek it, to think it, to try to live it.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Soothing East Asia's Nerves as Trump's Administration Reaffirms US Power in Asia-Pacific / Politics / US Military
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's 10-day tour of East Asia will focus primarily on easing uncertainty among U.S. allies about the administration's policies in the region.
- U.S. moves to contain North Korea and compel China toward cooperation will dominate discussions in Seoul and Tokyo, though tension over the Trump administration's trade policies will loom large in both visits.
- Indonesia and Australia will remain wary of joining U.S. initiatives that risk provoking China but also receptive to U.S. efforts to lay the groundwork for more robust defense cooperation.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
On the Commemoration of World War I: From Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
It is altogether fitting that the US attack on a Syrian airport, the dropping of a MOAB on defenseless Afghanistan, and the potential outbreak of nuclear war with North Korea have all come in the very month one hundred years earlier that an American president led the nation on its road to empire. President Trump’s aggressive actions and all of America’s previous imperialistic endeavors can ultimately be traced to Woodrow Wilson’s disastrous decision to bring the country into the First World War on April 6, 1917.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called - Let the Games Begin! / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On Wednesday 29th March 2017 Theresa May's post man in Brussels hand delivered a 6 page letter to Donald Tusk the President of the European Council, triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty starting the formal process for the UK exiting the European Union within 2 years' time, with the negotiations expected to begin during May following the conclusion of the French Presidential elections.
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China... Will They Ever Learn? / Politics / US Military
By: DeviantInvestor
In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?”
The short version is:
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls have picked them.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Maps That Explain Wars In The Middle East And North Africa / Politics / Middle East
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The Middle East and North Africa region runs from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and from Turkey to Yemen. The bulk of the region is along five waterways: The Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea.
Here are four maps that explain the dynamics and inherited divisions in these regions. (Download my FREE e-book, The World Explained in Maps, to get more insight into the forces shaping our physical and financial worlds.)
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Theresa May Calls Snap BrExit UK General Election Capitalising on Crippled Labour Party / Politics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May surprises everyone by calling a BrExit snap UK General Election on 8th June 2017. And this really is a surprise to all because previously she has repeatedly stated that she would not be calling an early general election. Instead in a statement today she made clear that her slender majority in the House of Commons was not large enough to secure a strong BrExit outcome for the United Kingdom.
Monday, April 17, 2017
‘Ruralization’ and ‘Agriculturization’: The Last Option for Human Survival and Growth... / Politics / Social Issues
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
... in the Age of Economic Crises and Terrorism
From the Myth of Growth and Abundance, the Humanity has entered into the Reality of Poverty and Survival, besides the Prolonged Economic Crisis for the destabilization of the rural economies, drastic decline of farm or food production and shrinking global economy as the byproducts of urbanization and aggressive industrialization. Deflating drinking and irrigation water supply due to changes in seasons and the weather, rising atmospheric heat or cold resulting in floods, draughts and wild fire and above all encroachments of fertile farm lands for industrialization and urbanization have become more evident.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
Turkey's President Wins Sweeping Powers in Cliffhanger Vote / Politics / Turkey
By: STRATFOR
In an apparent cliffhanger victory, with challenges from the opposition still outstanding, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President (and now party leader) Recep Tayyip Erdogan are claiming a hairline victory in a decisive referendum that will greatly empower the presidency. Some 48 million of 55 million eligible voters cast ballots on a raft of 18 constitutional amendments that will fundamentally alter the Turkish government, taking effect in the next scheduled election in 2019. With nearly all votes counted, the "Yes" vote garnered 51.34 percent of the vote with the "No" vote coming in close behind with 48.66 percent of the vote, according to state-run Anadolu Agency.
Monday, April 17, 2017
Trump US North Korea First Strike Smoke and Mirrors, China is the Real War Target! / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There is growing speculation in the mainstream media and BlogosFear that the Trump regime following blasting of an mostly empty Syrian air-field with 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles and then dropping a MOAB on caves in Afghanistan is next set to launch a pre-emptive first strike against the North Korean rouge state's nuclear and missile infrastructure before it manages to achieve its objective of being able to put nukes onto missiles.
Sunday, April 16, 2017
Korean Peninsula Brinksmanship / Politics / WW3
By: Stephen_Lendman
For a day at least, Washington and Pyongyang stepped back from the brink.
The DPRK refrained from conducting an expected sixth nuclear test, likely postponed, not cancelled.
Trump showed restraint by not belligerently reining on North Korea’s Day of the Sun commemorative parade, honoring its founder Kim Il-sung’s 105th birthday.
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Saturday, April 15, 2017
Syria: Where the Rubber Meets the Road / Politics / Syria
By: Mike_Whitney
You don’t have to be a genius to figure out that the case against Syrian President Bashar al Assad is extremely weak. The chemical weapons attack in Khan Shaykhun, has produced no smoking gun, no damning evidence, in fact, no evidence at all. Similar to the Russia hacking fiasco, (not a shred of evidence so far) the western media and the entire political class has made the case for attacking a sovereign country on the thin gruel of a few videos of an incident that took place in a location that is currently under the control of militant groups connected to al Qaida. That’s pretty shaky grounds for a conviction, don’t you think?
Saturday, April 15, 2017
Trump 2013 is Against Everything That Trump 2017 Does / Politics / US Politics
By: Jeff_Berwick
In 2013, Donald Trump could have almost been mistaken for a Dollar Vigilante subscriber. He was against almost anything Obama was doing, was against all the wars and occupations, was against Obamacare and constantly pointed out all the corruption, criminality and waste in government.