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1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
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3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
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5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
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7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Politics

Saturday, July 20, 2019

Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences / Politics / Africa

By: Richard_Mills

A lot of resource investors stop listening to corporate presentations when they learn the company’s project is in Africa. 

More often than not the country risk of exploring for minerals in the “dark continent” (as Africa was known to 19th century European explorers) is just too big a gamble for retail investors’ hard-earned capital. 

Development projects are hi-jacked by rebels, or over-run by artisanal miners. Operating mines get expropriated by governments that can’t resist the temptation to raid a foreign company’s coffers. And African miners frequently see their profits reduced by corrupt officials intent on re-negotiating royalty contracts. 

All of these things are true, yet in the long run, Africa cannot be ignored. The hammer-shaped continent is expected to drive global growth over the next several decades, as populations there climb, but dwindle elsewhere.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

This Economy Left Millions of Americans Behind / Politics / Social Issues

By: Patrick_Watson

Remember “No Child Left Behind,” George W. Bush’s education reform plan? Congress passed it in 2001.

Whether that law actually helped is subject to debate, but Bush picked a good name for it. Humans are social creatures. Our instincts tell us to make sure no one in our tribe gets “left behind,” economically or otherwise.

That instinct breaks down sometimes. Or we disagree about who belongs in our tribe. It’s a big problem in either case.

Hence, when people say even the poorest Americans live better than their grandparents did, or better than those in other countries, they miss the point.

Past generations and people overseas are the wrong comparison. We get angry when our own group leaves us behind.
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Politics

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

What Would Happen If Venezuela & the Middle East Couldn’t Access Oil? / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Rodney_Johnson

We’re hyper-focused on politics at the moment because, well, Trump. If he weren’t the president, with unshakeable support from one faction while inducing loathing from another, then the 2020 election cycle might be a touch less fanatical. But he is the president, and we’ve got Democratic hopefuls pummeling each other as they move to the left, promising many nw programs with questionable funding sources.

It’s as if the laws of supply and demand have been suspended.

Maybe they have when it comes to politics, but back in the real world, supply and demand do matter. And this cold reality could put the energy market in the deep freeze over the next 12 months.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Strong Dollar is good for Small Businesses / Politics / US Dollar

By: BATR

The Trump economy has provided a much needed optimism. While confidence for the future has grown over the meager performance under Obama, the fabric of prosperity has not yet achieved universal reach. Remember that an America First economy thrives on a strong dollar. So it is unfortunate that the establishment is pushing President Trump into favoring an internationalist trading system that hinders a domestic small business economy. The corporatists on Wall Street hate independent business.

In order to combat the export of American jobs, much higher tariffs should be imposed. Raising the value of the U.S. Dollar (Federal Reserve notes) would put an end to the oversea search for the cheapest labor regime. International trade that diminishes domestic output has been the primary cause of destroying our national autonomy. For those who are in denial, admitting this fact is a major threat to their cartel of global interdependency.

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Politics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Art Laffer On The Fed, What Would Milton Friedman Say? / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Art Laffer, the supply-side guru and recent recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom has caused yet another stir among the chattering classes. Last week, he told John Catsimatidis on AM 970 New York that “The Fed shouldn’t be independent of the administration. Never should be. None of those people were elected. They were appointed.” He repeated those sentiments on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning.

What would my good friend Milton Friedman say? Well, unfortunately, we don’t know for certain because Milton is no longer with us. That said, Nobelist Friedman weighed in on the issue of central bank independence on several occasions. Indeed, an essay he penned in 1962 was titled “Should there be an Independent Monetary Authority?” His essay appeared in In Search of a Monetary Constitution, which was published by Harvard University Press and was edited by my collaborator, the late Leland B. Yeager. Friedman was unambiguous. He concluded that “The case against a fully independent central bank is strong indeed.”

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Politics

Friday, July 12, 2019

State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable / Politics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

While the willingness to abandon long held beliefs for political gain has always been a common trait among public figures, the spectacle has recently taken on shocking levels of casual audacity. The contempt for even minimal levels of intellectual consistency has allowed Kamala Harris to condemn Joe Biden for his past opposition to Federally mandated busing while simultaneously taking the exact same position herself. These somersaults are particularly common with former economic conservatives seeking to curry favor with President Trump's decidedly non-conservative policies.

We have seen former free-trader Larry Kudlow awkwardly embrace high tariffs and big deficits, and economist Stephen Moore disavow decades of monetary hawkishness to position himself as a potentially reliable Trump loyalist. But the most dizzying reversal came this week when supposedly conservative Reagan administration economist Arthur Laffer (in what I believe to be an audition for a job in the Trump Administration) hit the airwaves to make the case that the Federal Reserve should be run directly by the President, not by the Fed's supposedly independent governors. Come again? Direct political control of a central bank has always been the bogeyman of any conservative economist. Was he serious?

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Politics

Thursday, July 11, 2019

My SATS Results SHOCK! / Politics / Educating Children

By: Anika_Walayat

It's Sats results day when 600 thousand 10 and 11 year olds will be getting their Sats scores for English, Grammar and Maths tests that take place at the end of Key Stage 2 just prior to the move to secondary school. So find what the SATS results are all about and if my scores live up to expectations in my latest video.

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Politics

Friday, July 05, 2019

The Geopolitical Winds are Shifting / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

How do you define terror? Perhaps, because of the way the term has evolved in the English language, one wouldn’t call the west ‘terrorists’ per se, but ‘we’ are certainly spreading terror and terrorizing very large groups of people. Yeah, bring on the tanks and parade them around town. Add a marching band that plays some war tunes.

The ‘official’ storyline : at the request of the US, Gibraltar police and UK marines have seized an oil tanker in Gibraltar. The super-tanker, 1000 feet (330 meters) long, carrying 2 million barrels, had stopped there after sailing all around the Cape of Good Hope instead of taking the Suez canal on its way, ostensibly, from Iran to Syria.

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Politics

Friday, June 28, 2019

Is Bitcoin A Diversion from the Natural Monetary Order? / Politics / Bitcoin

By: Antonius_Aquinas

As modern man continues to wantonly deviate, flaunt, and reject the natural law and the Divinely-created order from which it derives, it is not surprising that illusions like Bitcoin and other crypto currencies have captured the imagination of many and have provided a vehicle for scammers to rip off their fellow man.

Crypto currencies are a more complex, yet still devious derivative of the immoral, economic destructive, and social debilitating system of central banking.  In response, Bitcoin pumpers have craftily tried to portray digital currencies as a “decentralized” alternative to the present fiat, paper-money standard.

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Politics

Thursday, June 27, 2019

What Led to the Current Brexit Crisis? / Politics / BrExit

By: Travis_Bard

It’s more than a thousand days since the UK voted to leave the European Union, but the future relationship between the country and its continental neighbor is still unclear. The historic House of Commons, hailed as the Mother of Parliaments and based in the Palace of Westminster, has reached an impasse and can now only ask for an extension to the exit process in order to buy itself more time for a way out of the current predicament.

The public is as bitterly divided as the politicians – with more than six million people signing a petition to call for Brexit to be stopped and a mass march in London demanding another referendum to revisit the exit issue.

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Politics

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Iran and the Dying Days Of the US Empire / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Something’s been nagging me for the past few days, and I’m not sure I’ve figured out why yet. It started when Donald Trump first called off the alleged planned strikes on targets in Iran because they would have cost 150 lives, and then the next day said the US would do sanctions instead. As they did on Monday, even directly targeting Trump’s equal, the “Supreme Leader Khameini”.

When Trump announced the sanctions, I thought: wait a minute, by presenting this the way you did, you effectively turned economic sanctions into a military tool: we chose not to do bombs but sanctions. Sounds the same as not doing a naval invasion but going for air attacks instead. The kind of decisions that were made in Vietnam a thousand times.

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Politics

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Racial Reparations Another Version of Slavery / Politics / Social Issues

By: BATR

Racial neutrality was becoming an entrenched aspect in the populist general culture. Yet, the faction of continuing tribal dissention, once again, raised its Identity discontent to keep and widen the gap among varied sub groups. Slavery has never been limited to people of African descent. But to suffer through the repetitive diatribe that Blacks deserve sole recompense for their distress because of the color of their skin is offensive to any advocate of sincere social justice. By any objective standard the last half century since the racial riots that burned urban centers of rebellion; the advancement of Afro-Americans improved in most aspects. Those who assimilated into the mainstream culture usually shared the benefits of unification. However, the lingering resentment that eats away at achieving civil co-existence is brought up whenever it is politically opportune for the power hungry race baiters.  

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Politics

Monday, June 24, 2019

Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence / Politics / AI

By: N_Walayat

Every search we do feeds the Google AI with more and more data about who we really are and thus how to predict our actions under a wide variety of circumstances. Throw into the mix Google's continuing expansion into every aspect of our lives coupled with the exponential growth in processing power then we are perhaps no more than a year or so away when Google's AI will surpass that which even the smartest of humans are able to understand what it's getting up to with potentially dire consequences for mankind unless we try to keep pace with the machine intelligence by upgrading ourselves both mentally and physically which is the focus of this video.

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Politics

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Trump Clueless On Trade Tariffs / Politics / Protectionism

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Trump doesn’t like U.S. trade deficits. He also doesn’t like migrants flowing into the U.S. from south of the border. His tariffs and tariff threats are slowing trade and world economic growth. And this will, in turn, increase the migrant flows into the United States. After all, as foreign economic activity slows, and more foreigners are either thrown out of work or find their incomes drying up, they will be motivated to migrate. Trump remains clueless as to why tariffs fuel migration.

But, that’s not Trump’s only international trade blind spot. He and his cabinet think that U.S. trade deficits are a problem, and that they are caused by foreign countries that manipulate their currencies and engage in unfair trade practices. These ideas are wrongheaded.

These misguided ideas have plagued other administrations—even those lead by free-market presidents, like Ronald Reagan. Indeed, I spent many days, while at Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, trying to defend the President’s free-trade ideas. But, at the end of the day, the free-trader faction, which was led by the likes of Reagan himself, lost the war. The protectionists who harbored exactly the same wrongheaded ideas as Trump rolled us.

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Politics

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran / Politics / US Military

By: Raul_I_Meijer

As a nation, you’re certifiedly (is that a word?!) in deep trouble if and when Donald Trump is your most peaceloving man. But nevertheless, that is America today. It all harks back to the days when Trump was first -grudgingly and painstakingly- recognized as an actual presidential candidate.

He campaigned as a man who would end the costly and neverending decades-old and counting US wars far away from American shores and territory. He hasn’t lived up to those campaign goals at all, far from it, and he hired doofuses like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to show everyone that he didn’t, but in the early hours of June 21 2019 he apparently decided at the last minute that it just didn’t add up.

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Politics

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

We’re All Socialists Now / Politics / US Politics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

Despite being probably robbed of the Democratic Party’s nomination by the Clinton political machine, the success of the Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign with his advocacy of “democratic socialism” was an ominous sign of things to come and, in some sense, more telling of the political climate than Donald Trump’s improbable victory in November, 2016.  The millions of votes garnered by Sanders in the Democratic primaries has emboldened other socialists to seek political office while socialist ideas are openly spoken of with little fear of political recriminations. 

Sanders has doubled down on his advocacy of democratic socialism in a recent speech at George Washington University, calling for the completion of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal of the 1930s:

Today I am proposing we complete the unfinished work of Franklin Roosevelt and the Democratic Party by putting forth a 21st century economic bill of rights.*

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Politics

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Will Inflation “Save” Social Security? / Politics / Government Spending

By: MoneyMetals

Uncle Sam is going broke. That’s not exactly news – at least not to anyone who has been paying attention to the sorry state of federal finances.

Yet to most Americans, the ballooning national debt ($22.3 trillion and counting) isn’t a problem that impacts their daily lives. They won’t directly perceive the cost of another trillion dollars in borrowing in the government’s next fiscal year.

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Politics

Monday, June 17, 2019

Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? / Politics / UK Politics

By: Submissions

The battle is on for the next Conservation leader following the inevitable departure of Theresa May. This is certainly going to be a difficult job for whoever takes over the helm, in which there currently remains six looking for the role. The Roulettegeeks odds prediction has Boris Johnson as the short favourite and his price continues to shorten, in which he is now a best priced 1/6.

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Politics

Monday, June 17, 2019

Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest odds for who who is likely to be the next tory leader have continued to narrow in Boris Johnson's favour with the latest price of just 1.23 which is set against 1.84 a week ago, 2.98 a week before that, 4+ a month before and 5+ a few months ago. So the train for betting on Boris Johnson has left the station as the risk vs reward is just not there. I don't take bets where the return on a £100 risk is just £23, even if I am pretty sure the bet will come good because risk vs reward is one of the primary rules for successful trading as iterated in my January 2019 article on the real secrets for successful trading. The Real Secret for Successful Trading

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Politics

Sunday, June 16, 2019

US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.

The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'

Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.

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