Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade deficit. The December trade deficit increased to $48.8 billion from $47 billion in November. Although this report will have a slight negative impact on Q4 GDP there is something possibly more telling about the trajectory of the US economy.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
China, Economy, Inflation, Investing and on Buying U.S. Debt / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Bloomberg TV's Trish Regan spoke to Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, ahead of soon-to-be Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S. next week.
Roach said that he hoped U.S. political leaders would turn the visit "into an opportunity and not into a politically inspired, perceived threat." He also said that he foresees a "soft landing" of China's economy and that market access should be the main political issue with China, not currency.
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Saturday, February 11, 2012
Widening U.S. Trade Gap Reflects Relative Economic Strength / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $48.8 billion in December, putting the 2011 trade gap at $558 billion, the largest since 2008. Exports of goods and services advanced 0.7% in December, while imports of goods and services grew 1.3%. The advance estimate of fourth quarter real GDP contains assumptions about the trade deficit in December; the actual trade data for December suggest an upward revision of the 2.8% increase in real GDP, everything else the same.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Lagging Economic Indicators and Nagging Debt Fundamentals / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
After the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface. So what gives here? Is the economy back off to the races or are we merely continuing to kick the can down the road in spite of the obviously sour fundamentals?
Friday, February 10, 2012
Of U.S. Jobs, Debts and Budgets / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Consumer confidence spiked last December. Gas prices were lower for the third straight month, a mild early winter meant that many consumers paid less to heat their houses, the auto sector posted another strong month, consumers spent more on recreation and demand for student loans increased.
Consumers seemed inclined to spend and get deeper into debt.
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Friday, February 10, 2012
U.S. Economy Better Days Ahead? / Economics / US Economy
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – Over the past month, US economic data has surpassed analysts’ expectations and this positive surprise has triggered a rally on Wall Street.
You may recall that only a few months ago, the investment community was worried about Europe and many were questioning the survival of the single currency. During that period, investors were dumping all sorts of risky assets and capital was flowing towards the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid government bond market. Back then, European leaders were desperately trying to find a solution to the debt crisis and policymakers were engaged in what seemed to be never ending talks!
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Different Measures of U.S. Unemployment, but Consistent Story is Visible / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The civilian unemployment rate declined to 8.3% in January from 8.5% in the prior month and is noticeably lower than the year ago reading of 9.1% (see Chart 1). The jobless rate in the Great Recession peaked at 10.0% in October 2009. The elevated unemployment after ten quarters of economic growth remains one of the top concerns of the Fed. Frequently, measures of unemployment different from the headline number are cited to drive home the message that the underlying fundamentals of the labor market are softer than what is inferred from the official rate. The aim of today’s comment is to sort out the different measures of unemployment and draw a meaningful conclusion of the status of the labor market.
Thursday, February 09, 2012
China's Economic Rebalancing Should Be Good for Gold Demand / Economics / China Economy
By: Ben_Traynor
The next stage of China's development could give gold buyers a boost...
THERE IS an old saying: "Nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of a market."
Having said that, anyone reading about the stampede for gold during last month's Chinese New Year celebrations might have heard a faint ringing in their ears.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Illusion Of Economic Recovery – Feelings & Facts / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved." - Ludwig von Mises
Monday, February 06, 2012
US Unemployment Hits 22.5% in Alternate Estimate / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Jesse
Perhaps this chart will help explain the divergence that Charles Biderman of Trimtabs sees between the official unemployment numbers and the income tax data he has been tracking.
The difference amongst the three measures revolves around the treatment of workers who desire a real full time job, but have to either settle for a part time position and other forms of under-employment that may technically qualify as a 'job' but not as a 'living,' or who have simply been removed from the government's official attention span.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Look at What 'Worked' in the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Jesse
Here is a fairly simple picture of some of the major metrics during the Great Depression. Too simple yes, but it tracks most of the major indicators.
Hoover followed a policy of 'deleveraging,' that is, allowing for the economy to liquidate its prior excesses without changing much else. The Fed did respond to this crisis by expanding the monetary base fairly significantly as you can see.
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. Economy Flatlining, Biderman on the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Jesse
I spend a great deal of time looking at the various government reports, and especially the Payrolls report as you know. I keep my own spreadsheets with their data, and measure various changes in the way in which they calculate the seasonal adjustment factors, imaginary jobs, and prior revisions.
If I wish to leave you with one takeway, it is that the current use of the monthly headline number is more of a Sales and PR program for Wall Street and the government, and hardly the product of serious and thoughtful analysis of statistical data.
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. ISM Economic Data Cracks Beneath The Surface / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been discussed though is the ISM data for January.
ISM is broken into two components, services and manufacturing. Interesting that services represents a larger portion of the economy yet is given less emphasis. But that is neither here nor there. Both reports came in stronger than expected with services at a 10 month high while both continue to remain above the 50 level which defines expansion (above) and contraction (below).
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops, Should You Sell Gold? / Economics / Employment
By: Eric_McWhinnie
On Friday, the U.S. jobless rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009. According to the Labor Department, the economy added 243,000 jobs. Furthermore, today’s report includes revisions adding a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December. The Labor Department also revised December’s gains to 203,000, from an initially reported 200,000.
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
Putting Good U.S. Employment Numbers in Perspective, College Education Isn’t Enough / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Everyone knows by now that the US is facing difficult choices. Depending on what assumptions you use, the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are between $50 and $80 trillion and rising. It really doesn't matter, as there is no way that much money can be found, given the current system, even under the best of assumptions. Things not only must change, they will change. Either we will make the difficult choices or those changes will be forced by the market. And the longer we put off the difficult choices, the more painful the consequences.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
U.S. January Employment Situation Shows Widespread Improvement, but Short of Full Employment Mandate / Economics / Employment
By: Capital3X
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.3% in January, down from 8.5% in December. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% registered in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +243,000 jobs in January vs. +203,000 in December. Private sector jobs increased 257,000 after a gain of 220,000 in December. A net gain of 60,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of November and December
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Friday, February 03, 2012
U.S. Jobs, El-Erian U.S. Structural Issues Aren't Being Dealt With / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
PIMCO CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu, Scarlet Fu and Dominic Chu this morning about today's jobs report and the global economy.
On jobs, El-Erian said that "let's not also forget the numbers outside these headlines...we should not lose sight that we have structural issues that are not being dealt with."
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Friday, February 03, 2012
What Every U.S. Investor Should Know About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Tony_Caldaro
The Department of Labor publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) every month to monitor the inflation rate in the US. The chart below displays the annual rate of change, month to month, of the CPI in the Greenspan/Bernanke era. As you can observe it has averaged about 2.5%.
Friday, February 03, 2012
Real U.S. Economic Picture: "There is No Recovery" / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
If you have any money and you want to understand the lies that “your” government tells you with statistics, subscribe to John Williams shadowstats.com.
John Williams is the best and utterly truthful statistician that we the people have.
The charts below come from John Williams Hyperinflation Report, January 25, 2012. The commentary is supplied by me.
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Thursday, February 02, 2012
Godzilla Will Come Out of Tokyo Bay Before Japan Economy and Stock Market Rebounds / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
Let's talk Japan.
Every year some analyst comes out with a variation of the story that Japan is about to rebound.
Usually the argument goes something like this: Japanese markets are impossibly cheap and the central bank will be there to prevent a catastrophe.
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