Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
March U.S. CPI Inflation Points Highlights Economic Risks / Economics / Inflation
By: Tony_Pallotta
Friday's release of the March consumer price index (CPI) highlights the risk facing the US economy as we have been discussing over the past few weeks. When the US exited the 2008 recession (using exited loosely) it was not final demand from consumers that initiated growth but rather government stimulus. Debt as is the case with most recoveries is what fuels the initial leg.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Spain in Debt Crisis War, Fighting to Stop Turning into a Black Economy / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
I fully intended to ignore Spain this week. Really, truly I did. I had my letter all planned, but then a few notes drew my attention, and the more I reflected on them, the more I realized that the inflection point that I thought the ECB had pushed down the road for at least a year with their recent €1 trillion LTRO is now rushing toward us much faster than ECB President Draghi had in mind when he launched his massive funding operation.So, we simply must pay attention to what Spain has done this week – which, to my surprise, seems to have escaped the attention of the major media. What we will find may be considered a tipping point when the crisis is analyzed by some future historian. And then we'll get back to some additional details on the US employment situation, starting with a few rather shocking data points. What we'll see is that for most people in the US the employment level has not risen, even as overall employment is up by 2 million jobs since the end of the recession in 2009. And there are a few other interesting items. Are we really going to see 2 billion jobs disappear in the next 30 years?
Friday, April 13, 2012
U.S. Jobless Claims, Wholesale Prices, and Trade Gap – Mixed Economic Message / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 380,000 during the week ended April 7, putting the four-week moving average back at 368,500 after posting readings below this level in the past two weeks. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless by one week, fell 98,000 to 3.251 million. The soft payroll gains in March and the currently weekly gain in claims support the view that labor market conditions are improving only gradually.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Economic Recovery - Who are We Kidding? / Economics / US Economy
By: Axel_Merk
The global economy is healing, so we are told. Yet, the moment the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicates just that - and thus implying no additional stimulus may be warranted - the markets appear to throw a tantrum. In the process, the U.S. dollar has enjoyed what may be a temporary lift. To make sense of the recent turmoil, let's look at the drivers of this "recovery" and potential implications for the U.S. dollar, gold, bonds and the stock market.
Sunday, April 08, 2012
U.S. Job Creation Just Trying to Keep Up Wth Population Growth / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Today's employment numbers were decidedly soft, but the unemployment rate went down anyway, and that is about the best you can say. And this being a holiday weekend, it provides us an opportunity to look deep into the employment numbers, while we put off thinking about Spain for at least a week. And who knew that being an unmarried Asian-American in the US was a risk for unemployment? Plus a few other interesting items will make for an interesting letter.
Saturday, April 07, 2012
War Torn Iraq and Free Market Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
In the course of my deployments to Iraq I learned a great deal about economics, though I didn't realize it at the time. I hadn't yet been introduced to the Austrian School or a Rothbardian view of laissez-faire capitalism. Looking back, however, I can see quite clearly that in several important areas voluntary systems not only existed in that country but thrived.
Saturday, April 07, 2012
Discouraged U.S. Workers NOT THE REASON for decline in March Unemployment Rate / Economics / Unemployment
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.2% in March, down one notch from February. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0%, registered in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +120,000 jobs in March vs. +240,000 in February. Private sector jobs increased 121,000 after a gain of 233,000 in February. A net gain of 4,000 jobs due to revisions of payroll estimates of January and February.
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Saturday, April 07, 2012
Learning to Think in Multiple Scales and U.S. Jobs Creation / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Most politicians, bureaucratic officials, business "leaders", mainstream academics and media pundits in the world are stuck in a single-scale mindset. They approach every problem and issue from the perspective of a human being looking out into an increasingly inter-dependent global society. They take the structures of extensive trade, multinational corporations, global regulatory institutions, international treaties, etc. as irreversible truths that are embedded into the very fabric of existence.
Saturday, April 07, 2012
Eurozone, US, China, the Global Economy's Ups and Downs / Economics / Global Economy
By: William_R_Thomson
The Business Times Singapore Investment Round Table
PANELLISTS
Kenneth Courtis: Former vice-chairman, Goldman Sachs (Asia) and co-founder of Themes Investment Management
Ernest Kepper: President, Asia Strategic Investment Associates, Japan
Robert Lloyd-George: Chairman, Lloyd-George Investment Management, Hong Kong
William Thomson: Chairman of Private Capital, Hong Kong, director of Finavestment, London
Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Economic Depression and Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Has the United States met that precondition?
Well, consider that total credit market debt as a percent of U.S. gross domestic product was
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Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Crushing National Debts and Deficits, Economic Revolutions, and Extraordinary Popular Delusions / Economics / Technology
By: John_Mauldin
Professor Andrew Odlyzko leads off this week's Outside the Box with a familiar litany:
"A superpower with crippling debt, exorbitant taxes, glaring inequality, wages far exceeding those of competitors, high and persistent unemployment, lack of basic workplace skills, malnutrition, a rapidly growing rival across the ocean to the West, heated debates about the role of government in the economy, and widespread pessimism about the future."
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Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Three China Economic Trends to Watch for Global Investors / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Bloomberg announced over the weekend that China’s manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in a year. We follow the government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) closely, as we believe it is a better indicator of China’s domestic demand than the HSBC PMI. Whereas HSBC PMI surveys 400 small and mid-sized companies, which are typically export-oriented, the government’s PMI surveys 820 mostly large, state-owned enterprises across 20 industries. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 02, 2012
Oh Canada! Imposing Economic Austerity on the World’s Most Resource-rich Country / Economics / Canada
By: Ellen_Brown
Even the world’s most resource-rich country has now been caught in the debt trap. Its once-proud government programs are being subjected to radical budget cuts—cuts that could have been avoided if the government had not quit borrowing from its own central bank in the 1970s.
Sunday, April 01, 2012
Plunge In U.S. Savings Rate Highlights Economic Risk / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I can't resist mentioning the irony of talking about personal income "growth" on April Fool's Day. You can't make this stuff up. The headlines read "US consumer Spending Rose 0.8% In February, Best Gain In 7 Months; Income Lagged"
Sunday, April 01, 2012
Euro Crisis Next Phase All About Spain, the Mother of All Housing Bubbles / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Last Monday I was in Paris and was asked to do a spot on CNBC London. I arrived at the studios an hour early due to a misunderstanding of the time zones, so while trying to catch up on the news I listened to CNBC. I had just written about Spain in last week's letter and guessed that was what they wanted to talk to me about, but for the full hour before I got on it seemed like every guest wanted to talk about Spain. When I had my turn and indeed got the Spain question, I smiled and noted that we were now in a period when it would be "All Spain All the Time," for at least the next year. I should have noted that there would be brief interruptions where we glanced at Portugal and perhaps Ireland, but the real focus would be on Spain.
Sunday, April 01, 2012
Higher U.S. Gas Prices and the Illusion of Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Chapman
The housing recovery seems to have been a temporary affair. Preliminary data frames March as weak as last October. It looks like lower interest rates boasted sales. Those rates are up from 4.72% to 5.02%.
Sunday, April 01, 2012
U.S. Unemployment to Rise Amidst New Round of Mass layoffs / Economics / Unemployment
By: Barry_Grey
The US electronics retail chain Best Buy on Thursday announced it would close 50 stores this year and lay off 400 corporate and support workers as part of a plan to cut $800 million in costs and restructure its business. The Minnesota-based firm was one of a series of American and Canadian companies that announced major layoffs this week.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Money Is Starting to Burn a Hole in Households’ Pockets / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
February personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.8% month-to-month in nominal terms and 0.5% in real terms. In real terms, the February PCE increase was the strongest since last September. From some of the naysayers out there (David), we keep hearing that the economic “green shoots” that have emerged this past winter were due to the unusually mild temperatures. Really? One area of consumer expenditures that has not been boosted by the mild temperatures is electricity and natural gas.
Friday, March 30, 2012
U.S. Debt, Deficit, Economy and Financial NO SPIN Zone / Economics / US Debt
By: Ty_Andros
As leviathan government, Central Bankers and the welfare states battle Mother Nature and Darwin, the stakes for the global banksters and elites could not be higher. Governments in the US and Europe are striving to place debt and legal shackles on those they pretend to serve and working for the interests of banksters, power-hungry public servants and entrenched government bureaucrats against that of their own constituents.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Economic Forecasting: The Model Solution / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
In their economic analyses economists utilize a range of statistical methods that vary from highly complex models to a simple display of historical data. It is generally held that by means of statistical correlations one can organize historical data into a useful body of information, which in turn can serve as the basis for assessments of the state of the economy. In short, it is held that through the application of statistical methods on historical data, one can extract the facts of reality regarding the state of the economy.