Category: Stock Market 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, September 06, 2021
A Mixed Stock Market - Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, September 05, 2021
S&P 500 Rallies To New All-Time Highs – Are The Markets About To Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The S&P 500 rallied to new highs early in September after the US Federal Reserve statements indicating continued support of the US economy and easy money policies. It appears the markets have fallen back into bullish trending mode which may continue throughout September and into the end of 2021 through the Christmas Rally phase.
Q3:2021 Earnings & The 2021 Christmas Rally Are Pending
Although we can see a new, more moderate, price trend taking place on this S&P 500 (ES) Weekly Chart, below, we are starting to see a new rally phase setting up as traders push prices higher to close out Q3:2021 in expectation of continued strong earnings.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Stock Market Rallying on FOMO Fumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
Fed Statements Drive New Rally Momentum In The Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week, the US Federal Reserve reiterated statements in support of continued easy money policies and support for a recovering US economy. Additionally, Jerome Powell made a statement suggesting tightening too early could be much more damaging than waiting until sufficient headwinds are behind us. I interpret this as stating the current inflationary concerns are less important than the current global market expectations. We can likely weather moderate inflationary concerns if the economy continues to strengthen – whereas tightening right now may not reduce inflationary concerns and may prompt a broad market slowdown within the US and globally.
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In short, traders and investors perceived these comments as “Here we go – off to the races again” and the US markets rallied sharply on Friday and in early trading on Monday, August 30, 2021.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Stock Market Taper Shock That Never Was / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Yes, more paring the risk-on bets came yesterday, indiscriminately taking down stocks (tech and value alike), oil and copper. The overall shape of the consolidation in real assets (commodities and precious metals) remains bullish though – it‘s mainly in the S&P 500 that the hanging man candle is giving me a pause – temporarily lower stock prices would be favored by the VIX too.
Regardless of that:
(…) Margin debt is contracting, M2 not exactly at the prior rates of growth, but celebrations in the paper and real asset markets largely go on. Gold and silver are understandably lagging in the drummed up taper expectations, but I‘m not looking for any kind of dramatic statement from the Fed. The two steps forward, one step backwards melodrama is likely to continue into the September FOMC, and even that may very well leave the markets guessing. The Fed is in no position to tighten, the economic recovery is likely to continue, and the central bank won‘t kill it – which means continuous noises, and data dependecy as they like to call it.
What we have seen thus far, and are likely to see next, are stealth real attempts to test the markets‘ tolerance to the continuing monetary largesse to the extent permitted by actual fiscal realities (nice qualifier to say „don‘t expect too much“), verbal interventions projecting the (sooner than anticipated, and most importantly, actually viable in the marketplace) taper (and later tightening) images while seeing the dollar hovering in a position of relative strength (useful tool to take on cost inflation). Make no mistake, Powell is keen to cement his legacy, and that doesn‘t involve succumbing to the hawkish (ehm, considered as hawkish in our loose monetary era) calls during a slowdown in the real economy growth.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Stock Market Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 29, 2021
Stock market risk not yet realized / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Stock market is at high risk, but…
The ‘but’ is the old saying “markets can remain [seemingly] irrational longer than you can remain solvent” if you fight a trend that is intact at any given point. Since March, 2020 that trend has been up.
Structurally Over-bullish
Below is a chart showing the 10 week exponential moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) that we review periodically in NFTRH for a view of the structural over-bullish situation in stocks. I write structural because it has extended much longer than extremes in the CPCE have done at previous ‘bull killer’ danger points, after which risk was realized in the form of moderate to severe corrections.
The trend began logically enough at a ‘bear killer’ reading in the midst of max pandemic fear. We noted at the time that market participants were not just bearish, not just risk averse, but absolutely terrified. So the recipe is this: take 1 lump of terrified investors, add a heaping helping of the Fed’s money printing and voila, enjoy the taste of a slingshot rally that is very filling despite its inflationary odor.
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Saturday, August 28, 2021
Stock Market IWM Sets Up Dual Pennant/Flag Formation – Suggesting Very Volatile Apex Even / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we’ve seen an extended sideways price trend in the Russell 2000 sector that started in February/March of 2021. The peak price level on the IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, reached $234.29 and has consolidated in a sideways price range for more than five months now. In mid-July, IWM broke lower and established a fresh new price low of $209.05 – setting up a second Pennant/Flagging price formation (in YELLOW). We believe this extended sideways Pennant/Flagging price channel is setting up a major volatility event (breakout or breakdown) as the price continues to near the Apex.
Dual Pennant/Flag Setups Suggest Big Volatility On The Horizon For Traders
We’ve drawn the longer-term Pennant/Flagging channel in CYAN and the more recent Pennant/Flagging channel in YELLOW. What we find interesting is that price is certainly attempting to break free of this channel recently but has continued to be constrained by a lack of directional momentum.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Investing During Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is a continuation of my recent extensive analysis in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Stock Market Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021. This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend.
Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends
While the US markets continue to trend higher, some of our custom indicators and modeling systems have recently warned of market weakness setting up in cross-market sectors. Additionally, last week, the foreign markets took a bit of a beating while general commodities moved decidedly lower. Overall, it is tough to argue with this upward price trend – even while other indicators suggest intermediate market strength may be weakening.
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Monday, August 23, 2021
Stock Market Correction Underway – How much? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 22, 2021
Stocks: What to Make of Wall Street's Sky-High Optimism / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"I believe that the market moves in whatever direction hurts the most participants"
The U.S. stock market has been in an uptrend since March 2009 -- so, more than 12 years.
To add icing to the cake, there's this notable factoid (CNBC, August 16):
S&P 500 doubles from its pandemic bottom, marking the fastest bull market rally since WWII
So, after such a historic run, one might think that many Wall Street analysts would say that it's time to take at least some chips off the table.
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Friday, August 20, 2021
S&P 500 Back Below 4,400. Dip to Buy or a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks sold off yesterday as the fear of Fed tapering grew. Monday’s run-up was definitely a bull trap, and our short position is profitable now.
The S&P 500 index lost 1.1% on Wednesday and the futures contract continued selling off overnight. The index will most likely break below its late July consolidation and the support level of 4,370 this morning. However, it may get near a short-term bottom, as it gets closer to the 4,350 level. It’s the nearest important support level, marked by the three-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Stock Market Is About To Crash - Part XXIII (This Time We Mean It) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market began its historic rally off the March 2020 low, many were convinced that we had begun a bear market. In fact, I witnessed many people posting about short trades in which one cannot lose during that rally. The common perspective was that due to the highest Covid death rates being reported during the spring of 2020, economic shutdowns being seen all over the country, and record unemployment being reported, there was no way the market could continue to rally. It was simply impossible in most people’s minds.
Yet, continue to rally we did. Imagine if there was someone who warned you that we were going to 4000+ from the 2200SPX region, and who actually turned strongly bullish as we were hitting the lows. You would think that more and more people would be interested in what caused this person to maintain such a strong bullish bias in the face of utter despair.
It is uncanny. Avi and his team are working their ass off - and they make incredible calls. The constantly tell you to unlearn everything you learned before, and most people struggle with this. I still do. But the more I embrace their trading style the greener my account gets. I mean, when a guy tells you that we will see SPX 3200+ in a few weeks/months in the middle of a crisis like corona, it is very hard to let go of your shorts. I wish I did,.. Well, today, when Avi tells me what he thinks is most probably going to happen and how,... I listen. And it is a pleasure to watch my balance grow.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Fresh Stock Market Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).
My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and new ones growing today.
The countdown to the Jackson Hole is on though, with the Fed practically having to do something – something in all likelihood face saving only as the record deficit spending gives it little to no maneuvering room.
Monday, August 16, 2021
Stock Market Strong Intermediate Reversal Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 15, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Increasing Risks for Stock Market CRASH 2021 - AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Stock Market Dichotomy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 08, 2021
Are Stock Markets Ready For An August Surprise? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing that seems to be certain in the markets right now is the past hyper-bullish trending which appears to have weakened since early 2021. As a result, the longer-term Custom Indexes we use to help gauge and understand market trends are showing a very clear weakening of trends.
In this article, we are going to review three of our custom index charts on a weekly chart basis, the Custom US Stock Market Index, the Smart Cash Global Market Index, and the Custom Volatility Index. Each of these charts highlights something unique related to current market trends.
Use this information to read between the line and to help establish your own expectations for the markets going forward. We’ll provide our conclusion near the end of this research article.
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