Investing During Stock Market Uncertainty

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Aug 26, 2021 - 12:15 PM GMT

This is a continuation of my recent extensive analysis in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.

Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! the whole of which has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
Stock Market Summer Correction
REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger
Margin Debt Bubble
US Bond Market Long-term Trend
Michael "Big Short" Burry CRASH and HYPERINFLATION WARNING!
Michael Burry's Track Record
Michael Burry's Portfolio
Investing During Uncertainty
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying July Levels Update
HEDGING AI Stocks Portfolio
Crypto Bear Market Accumulation State
Bitcoin Bull / Bear Indicator
Market Oracle AI Coin Thoughts
Biotech Brief

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month.. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Investing During Uncertainty

We are in a stock market bubble, but how close are we to the bubble popping? What happened to the high risk tech stocks that Cathy Wood so loves was a warning that the bubble is starting to pop. But bubble mania peaks tend to have a lot of uncertainty associated with them is the peak now or is it 10%, even 20% from here?

And then what? Do we get a crash or a bear market of sorts? 20%, 30% even a 50% drop? So how should one invest when the outlook is so uncertain?

The first step is to ask oneself how would I react to a 30% drop in the value of my portfolio?

Will I great such a drop as a buying opportunity or lament at failing to have sold x,y,z when the prices were trading much high.

So my decision of 17th June 2021 was to position myself to great a potential drop in the market of say 30% enthusiastically as a great buying opportunity. I am now comfortable with whatever happens going forward even a blow off top that takes valuations to a whole new level in a final mania driven spike.

In terms of investing, during times of certainty one is fully invested. During times of uncertainty then one dollar cost averages, so if one wants exposure to a particular stock in an uncertain climate then buy once every couple of months or so. So set a date and then buy on that date.

In which respect I will eventually be buying back positions in Google and Facebook probably starting late October. In addition to having market orders under the market in case the stock market decides to take a tumble to my buying levels.

For where we stand look for warnings signs, look for deviations such as Tech stocks falling but the general indices such as the S&P and Dow trading to new all time highs. That's a deviation to take note of for what the Nasdaq does today the Dow will do tomorrow. Deviations are not a sign of health, they are a sign of market confusion, the market is in mania mode, and so panic selling from one sector sees the money flood into other sectors thus resulting general indices that still rise whilst the market is weakening, anyway that is how I see the market right now.

So I expect the market to correct hard, maybe experience a mini bear market, which should bring the value of all stocks down with it towards at least my buying levels.

However, it is entirely possible the the drops in the market will see even the good stocks trade down to become undervalued, which for the likes of Google, Amazon and Apple could translate into a 30% drop in their stock prices. But it is not certain, hence why better to de-risk now and wait and see what happens with mechanisms to invest.

This analysis is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis evaluating the prospects for a Financial Crisis 2.0 - Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! the whole of which has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
Stock Market Summer Correction
REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger
Margin Debt Bubble
US Bond Market Long-term Trend
Michael "Big Short" Burry CRASH and HYPERINFLATION WARNING!
Michael Burry's Track Record
Michael Burry's Portfolio
Investing During Uncertainty
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying July Levels Update
HEDGING AI Stocks Portfolio
Crypto Bear Market Accumulation State
Bitcoin Bull / Bear Indicator
Market Oracle AI Coin Thoughts
Biotech Brief

Including access to my most recent in-depth analysis - AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels, Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021

Stock Market Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021
Microsoft to the Moon - OUCH!
CISCO to the Moon - OUCH!
INTEL to the Moon - OUCH!
Tech Stocks in a Bubble today?
China / US Stock Markets Divergence
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and SELLING Levels
AI Stocks Portfolio Buy / Sell Table Update
High Risk Stocks
Market Oracle AI Coin Mothballed
Global Warming Code RED

Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run

Contents

RISK RATINGS
HIGH RISK STOCK BUYING LEVELS\
Bxxxxxxxxx - Bxxxx -- Risk 3
Cxxxxxxxxxxxx- Cxxx - - Risk 5
Txxxxxxxxxx - Txx - - Risk 1
Bxxxxxxxxxxxxx- Bxxx - Risk 8
Axxxxxxxxxxx - Axxx -- Risk 10
High Risk Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
Netflix - FAANG a Buy, Sell or Hold?
Trending towards Hyperinflation!
Delta Variant!
Solar CME MULTIPLE Black Swans

AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?

AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
Pattern Recognition
Trend Analysis Preprocessing
Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
CME Black Swan

And my comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin and Cryptos - Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
Lessons Learned
Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
Alternative Scenarios
My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
Crypto's 7 to 10
Creating The Perfect Crypto
How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
CHIA SCAM COIN
Binance vs Coinbase
Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?

For crypto trading and investing see Binance for 10% discount on trading fees - Discount Code LZ728VLZ

For managing your crypto's see Coinbase

For GPU mining check out Nicehash (affiliate links).

My analysis schedule includes:

UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada - 15% done
How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

Gold and SIlver Price Analysis - 10% Done
Stock Market Trend Forecast September to December 2021
US Dollar and British Pound analysis

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your biotech stocks investing analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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