Category: Stock Market 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, April 04, 2021
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg : Penny stocks are an investment vehicle that really has garnered the attention and speculation of investors in early 2021. They're plunging headlong into off-exchange shares.
I remember back when I started in the early 1980s at Merrill Lynch, there was a guy that walked in the office and he had pieces of paper that were pink, and I didn't know what they were.
I was 23 years old, just starting out. I went over to him and said, "What are you looking at?" And he turned to me and he said, "Son, this is your road to riches right here." And then he was looking at the OTC bulletin board pink sheets of these off-penny stocks.
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Sunday, April 04, 2021
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
How about both.
You can't go ten minutes on financial media these days without coming across a reference to inflation. That is, consumer price inflation to be more exact -- the measurement of changes in the prices of consumer goods and services that the entire world has been hoodwinked by central banks into thinking is the definition of inflation. The proper definition of inflation is the expansion of money and credit in an economy. On that definition, most major economies have been experiencing high inflation for decades.
Sigh, nevertheless, the focus for the markets at this moment is on a potential rise in consumer price inflation. The general underlying narrative from conventional analysts is that this is a good thing for markets because it is preferable to consumer price deflation. But is it?
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Saturday, April 03, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) - Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.
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Saturday, April 03, 2021
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Yesterday‘s consolidation in stocks was a bullish one, and the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded. Strange but true if you consider that also a plan to considerably raise taxes would be announced today, so as to help pay for the stimulus wave. The bond markets are calmly overlooking that so far, enabling the run to the 4,000 mark.
And it still appears a question of time. Inflation isn‘t yet biting (forget about the German CPI data for now), fresh money keeps hitting the markets, and Archegos is about to become a distant memory. Stocks seem immune to the rising yields spell at the moment, meaning that value trades can remain at elevated levels while technology is stuck in no man‘s land and defensives are consolidating recent sharp gains (consolidating until the rising yields come back with vengeance).
And there is little reason given the Fed‘s stance why they shouldn‘t. Much of the marketplace is buying into the transitory inflation story, and inflation expectations aren‘t yet running too hot. As the economic growth is stronger than current or future inflation, we‘re still at a good stage in the inflation cycle – everyone benefits and no one pays.
Friday, April 02, 2021
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An interesting Fibonacci Measured Move pattern has set up in the Transportation Index (TRAN) recently. The Transportation Index is an important component of the future US economic expectations. As the Transportation Index rises, one could assume greater economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months. As the Transportation Index declines, one could assume weaker economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months. My research team and I watch the TRAN as a type of confirming indicator for US major index and sector trends. When we see the TRAN rising sharply, we can often assume various US sector trends will also move higher.
The Transportation Index Daily chart below shows two key elements we find interesting. The first RED price range on this chart represents a 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move from the early November 2020 bottom to the mid-January 2021 peak. If we extend that same range to the early February lows, we see a major support level exists near $14,358 (a full 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move). The TRAN price has recently broken above this level and we believe this support level will likely hold and prompt another moderate rally attempt above $14,750.
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, March 29, 2021
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.
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Monday, March 29, 2021
Stock Market Risk-off Is Back Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness instead of muddling through in a tight range. Especially the sectoral reaction to still retreating yields, is worrying. Yesterday‘s session means a reality check for prior reasonable expectations:
(…) The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise.
Tech faltered yesterday, and neither the other sectors were convincing. Rotation within stocks didn‘t work yesterday or the day before, and that‘s short-term concerning for the stock market bull health – as in, the path ahead would be truly rockier, and accompanied by brief, sharp selloffs such as the one bringing S&P 500 futures to 3,865 moments ago. The bull market isn‘t though over by a long shot – all we‘re going through is a recalibration of the rising inflation – I still stand by my year end call for $SPX at 4200.
It‘s commodities that are under the greatest pressure now, and the copper and oil signals doesn‘t bode well for the immediate future. These are likely starting consolidation of post-Nov 2020 sharp gains – they are no longer frontrunning inflation expectations. This has also consequences for silver, which is more vulnerable here than the yellow metal now.
Friday, March 26, 2021
U.S. Stocks: Here's Evidence of a "Nearly Unprecedented Acceptance of Risk" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Penny stocks fever has reached "the highest level since the first three months of 2000"
Penny stocks tend to be highly illiquid. In other words, it's difficult to buy and sell them at favorable prices.
Even so, the lure of low-priced shares is hard for many market participants to resist, especially the novices -- like in 2000, when penny stock trading had reached a fever pitch.
Well, just about the same thing has been going on this year. Here's a Jan. 20 Reuters headline:
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Friday, March 26, 2021
After Fed Week – Stock Market What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we shared more detail related to the Excess Phase Peak technical pattern that is setting up in the NASDAQ and to highlight the validity of our Gann/Fibonacci Technical research which suggested a peak in the markets may set up sometime after April 1, 2021. We’ve received many questions and comments from our readers and followers related to these articles. Many people seem to believe we are calling for an April 1 market peak based on this research, yet the technical patterns we are highlighting suggest a longer-term market peak may already be setting up.
In this second part of our more detailed “what next” article, my research team and I will highlight exactly why we believe traders and investors need to be prepared for an extended technical topping pattern and how it will likely set up over the next 60 to 90+ days. Let’s continue our research from Part I and go into more detail related to this technical setup.
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Thursday, March 25, 2021
Market Timing For The Next Two Weeks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every time I branch out to read articles being presented throughout the internet each week, it simply makes me shake or scratch my head. Moreover, I stand in amazement at anyone who attempts to base their investment portfolio upon such information.
As I have said many times, after many years of market study, I have found no better analysis methodology that provides market context better than Elliott Wave analysis. It provides forewarning as to melt-up set-ups in the market, as well as periods of market volatility.
Last week, I warned our members that we were entering a period of time which will present a choppy and difficult market to navigate. And, the market certainly delivered within our expectations. And, did interest rates or exogenous events tell me this was going to happen?
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Tuesday, March 23, 2021
Stock Market Pause in an Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, March 22, 2021
Stock Market After The FOMC – What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have received numerous emails and questions regarding the market’s set up and what to expect after the Triple-Witching event (FOMC, Futures/Options expiration) last week. It appears many traders/investors are seeking some clarity related to price trends and the potential opportunities that are setting up in the US markets right now. In this research article, my research team and I provide some greater detail related to what we believe is likely to happen over the next 5 to 8+ weeks.
Our recent Gann/Fibonacci research article drew quite a bit of attention from readers. Their biggest concern was that we were suggesting a major peak in the markets could setup in early April 2021. We want to be clear about this longer term market setup to make sure our readers and followers fully understand the implications of this technical pattern.
A peak/top could start to setup anytime after April 1, 2021, based on the Gann/Fibonacci research we’ve completed. But, that peak/top setup could also happen anytime between April 2021 and August 2021 (or slightly later). Timing this pattern is not something we can accomplish very easily as the range of dates where this Gann/Fibonacci inflection level exists consists of about 5+ months. The one key factor we continued to stress in that article was to “watch for a technical breakdown in price above the $379 to $380 price level on the SPY”. Many readers may be able to comprehend what we are trying to say by this statement, but we’ll try to help clarify it by showing what it would look like on a price chart.
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Friday, March 19, 2021
Are We Days Away From Potential Gann/Fibonacci Stock Market Price Peak? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have received many emails from members and readers asking us to follow-up on our December 30, 2020, Gann/Fibonacci research article entitled “Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest A Major Peak in Early April 2021 – Part II“. In that article, my research team suggested a major price peak may set up in early April 2021. Now we are only a few weeks away from the start of April and we believe the US major indexes have already started to make their move related to the Gann/Fibonacci peak prediction. Let’s review our original research and then take a look at what is happening on the charts right now.
Before we get started, please know that this article talks about the long-term trend and pattern forming. This topping setup may drag out until later this year, possibly August and beyond. As always, we do not trade or invest based on predictions. We simply follow the price. Until the market price confirms a new downtrend, we will remain long stocks.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Stock Bulls Run – Will Gold Ones Too? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Resting on Friday, surging on Monday. Feeble downswing attempt defeated right after the open, and then just bullish price action. Retail data today, and another FOMC meeting tomorrow – I view the former as not too likely to spoil today‘s market action. About the latter, remembering the latest reactions to Powell pronouncements, I look for the markets to be affected to a much greater degree.
Don‘t look for material surprises, or be spooked by bets on the Fed tightening through dot plot adjustment or other forward guidance tools.I expect no change from what I wrote yesterday:
(…) Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Are The US Stock Markets Sending A Warning Sign? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively. Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling? We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week. Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)? Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher? What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?
The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs. Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Stock Market March Rally Was Good - April Will Be Even Better / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Oftentimes, I will peruse the articles being published on Seeking Alpha to gain a perspective as to whether others “in the know” are bearish or bullish, and why. But, the “why” aspect is the most entertaining to me.
When I decide to click on an article discussing the market, I find that the article most often explains what the market has done either yesterday or the week before. Then it goes into a discussion of the reasons the market did what it did. In other words, most articles are primarily concerned with trying to explain the past action of the market. But, here is the kicker. They then attempt to extrapolate the reasons of the past into the action of the future. This is where most fail.
First, one is only assuming they have an understanding as to why a market dropped or rallied in the past week. Simply because there is an event or news item that occurred during that week, they superficially assume that it caused the market move we experienced.
What is truly absurd is when the exact opposite event or news item is reported, and the market continues in the same path as before, they then have the gall to explain to us that this exact opposite event or new item caused the market to continue to rally.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Dow Stock Seasonal and Presidential Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, then higher into late April the correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears crow their loudest about the market having topped.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Is Stock Market Uptrend Already Resuming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end..
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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