Category: Stock Market 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.
Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.
“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.
Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.
Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”
Source: WSJ
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.
Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.
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Friday, November 26, 2021
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up?
The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks at the general stock market indices such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq then the correction is done and dusted, However look under the hood and one sees huge volatility in the tech sector, huge price drops of stocks crashing by over 10% in a single day and for some by as much as 1/3rd (Peloton). So where many tech stocks are concerned a significant correction HAS TRANSPIRED despite the indices largely giving a head and shoulders shrug by continuing to revert to new all time highs.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:
(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.
Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.
Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?
For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.
Monday, November 22, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Some indicators are making records"
It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.
For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.
Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.
Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.
Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.
AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.
Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Stock Market Great Profitable Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks.
To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.
The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.