Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
US Panic Interest Rate Cuts and the US Economic Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Harold Wilson once said that "a week in politics is a long time". Well, that goes double for economies. Last week I said " against my better judgement " that the report on US manufacturing by the Institute for Supply Management was painting a rather grim picture that showed manufacturing was contracting.
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Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Economic Stimulus Package Will Not Fix the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
This past week in Washington there has been much talk about the economy. It seems by their actions the leadership and the Fed is finally willing to admit we have a problem, and we need to do something about the economic mess we are in. This is a good thing. However, they are still not being honest about the root cause of our impending crisis and want to deal only with symptoms, not the disease.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
US Economy Rescue Plan - "I know what you did last rebate-time" / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
We'd just finished a nasty fall in the stock market. Tech stocks had crashed, with the NASDAQ losing over 60% of its value. The economy was slowing down and a recession seemed imminent. Something clearly had to be done. The last thing a rookie President needs in his first days in office is a recession. What better an idea to curry favor with the voters than a tax rebate? I remember receiving my $600 Bushbate during the summer of 2001. Mired in graduate school tuition bills, I did the most un-American thing of all: I paid bills with my check. My rebate didn't really stimulate anything other than my own sanity perhaps. However, in order for the rebates to stimulate the economy, the recipients of the money have to spend it into the economy. In theory, this will cause production to increase and growth to ensue. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
US Economy Rescue Plan of $1,200 per American Family, More Checks Will Follow! / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
One Gold Coin for Every American FamilyIf American families are smart (and if they are able), they'll take that $1,200 check coming from the gubment and buy a single one-ounce American Eagle gold coin. Now that monetary policy and fiscal policy appear to be firing on all cylinders, it will probably be one of the easiest and best decisions they'll ever make - the only real question is whether or not $1,200 will be enough by the time the checks arrive in May.
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Friday, January 25, 2008
US Financial Services Industry the Next Sector to Move to Asia / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Over the past half-century, the United States has seen its global dominance in dozens of industries slip away. One plum that we have maintained is our gargantuan financial services industry, whose contribution to total GDP more than tripled between 1947 and 2005. However, the current global financial crisis, manufactured on Wall Street and exported to the entire world, may result in the U.S. losing its financial crown as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Is the US Economy Already in Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Figures from the Institute of Supply Management are painting a grim picture. Its PMI (performance manufacturing index) stood at 47.7 in December against 50.8 November. (Anything below 50 indicates a contraction). For the same period production fell from 51.9 to 47.3 while employment remained largely unchanged. Ordinarily this would be enough for anyone ' including me ' to declare the US economy in recession. Unfortunately the situation is not that clear because we have yet to learn what Bernanke will do in the near future.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bush's Voodoo Stimulus Package - White House In Full Panic Mode! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
The White House is now in full-panic mode. In fact, the falling stock market has the administration so worried that Bush will deliver a speech later today that will lay out the details of a “stimulus package” designed to rev-up flagging consumer spending. The desperation is palpable. Fed chairman Bernanke's appearance on Capital Hill on Thursday turned out to be a total bust. Bernanke was supposed to calm jittery investors with promises of rates cuts and easy credit. Instead, his gloomy predictions put the market into a tailspin sending the Dow Jone's down 306 points by day's end. Now it's up to Bush and Co. to pick up the pieces and try to restore confidence in Wall Street.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis and Big Story for 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Democrats Ready to Politicize the Fed
- More BLS BS
- Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis
- A Stimulating Political Package
- The Economy Continues to Weaken
- Europe, Phoenix, and My New Chair
After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see, claims were actually up by 26,000. I wrote in my annual 2008 predictions that the big story of the year would turn out to be credit default swaps and counter-party risk. I will admit to thinking it would take more than a few weeks for that to happen. And the Senate is hampering the ability of the Fed to work, and doing so for blatant political purposes, in an effort to reduce the independence of the Fed. There is that and a lot more to cover in what should be an interesting letter.
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Friday, January 18, 2008
George Bush Begs Saudi's for Cheap Crude Oil - The Begging is Only the Beginning! / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Begging for OilEarlier this week, news reports surfaced about how President Bush, during his recent trip to the Middle East urged the oil producing countries of that region to step up production to meet current market conditions. His plea, however, was less than well received. The Saudis, in effect, told Mr. Bush to get lost, saying “Oil production is controlled by the market”. I'll allow that this utterance is cloaked in ambiguity. It is worrisome, however, especially against the backdrop of persistently high oil prices. The Saudis have either an unwillingness or inability to ramp up production.
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Thursday, January 17, 2008
US GDP Statistics : Can We Trust The BEA Data? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
Introduction In another life (circa 1962), I was an auditor for AT&T. Nothing spectacular. Mostly cash and property reviews. Then some business process analysis. It was my good fortune to have two older gentlemen as partners. They graciously decided to teach this green college kid how to be a good auditor. It was a great learning experience. One of the tricks they taught me was called the “reasonable test”. If the data under audit was within the parameters of like data from other audits, then it was reasonable to assume there were no problems of procedure or management. If, on the other hand, the data did not seem to make sense versus circumstantial criteria, then it would be reasonable to assume further audit investigation was warranted. This technique of measuring the quality of information has become a cornerstone of my work ever since. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Financial Foundations of the American Century - Financial Tsunami Part II / Economics / US Economy
By: F_William_Engdahl
The ongoing and deepening global financial crisis, nominally triggered in July 2007 by an event involving a small German bank holding securitized assets backed by USA sub-prime real estate mortgages, can best be understood as an essential part of an historical process dating back to the end of the Second World War—the rise and decline of the American Century.
The American Century, proudly proclaimed by Time-Life founder and establishment insider, Henry Luce in a famous 1941 Life magazine editorial, was built on the preeminent role of New York banks and Wall Street investment banks which had by then clearly replaced the City of London as the center of gravity of global finance. Luce's American Century was to be built in a far more calculated manner than the British Empire it replaced.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Fed's Small Fixes for a Growing Economic Problem / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
The economy has taken a serious turn since the first of the year. January has seen the Wilshire 5000 drop 4.9%, unemployment tick up, and write-downs and write-offs increase in size. Fortunately, the news is finally reaching the campaign trail. Problem is no one can quite agree on whether these problems are short-term or long, good or bad, recessionary or just simply the result of a poor calculation done months, perhaps years ago. So what happened when we turned the calendar?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
US Economy and Bernanke's Superficial Understanding of Economics / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
At the beginning of the month the Fed sent out a press release in which it brought attention to "a string of large current account deficits" by the US. We also had Mr Bernanke grandly declaring: We stand ready to take substantive additional actions as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
US Social Security Trust Fund Government Designed and Controlled Ponzi Scheme / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_Selengut
As an investor, I've always wondered why Social Security is such a problem. What's so difficult about managing this particular Trust Fund, and why is it so different from other investment accounts that pay out a constant stream of income? The private sector does it routinely with defined benefit pension plans and fixed annuities, so what's the big deal? Is Social Security failing because it hasn't been invested soundly, or is there some other reason?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
US Trade Deficit Reduction Reliant on Increased Savings and Reduced Consumption / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- What Are They Thinking?
- The Reality of Trade Deficits
- Fair Tax Nonsense
- How to Create an Immigration Depression
- Stimulate the Economy by Cutting Spending?
- Tax Hikes to Help Us Grow?
In the past week, I have been in the car coming home late from work, with the presidential debates are on the radio. It is very discouraging to listen to what passes for economic literacy among the candidates. In reality, many candidates are espousing policies that are quite dangerous at worst, or simply misleading at best. Far too many in both parties tell a frustrated America what it wants to hear, rather than the economic reality. The Republicans have some of the worst offenders.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The Economy & The Fat Kid / Economics / US Economy
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Credit-based economies constantly need to expand in order to service constantly increasing levels of debt. Central banks adjust the flow of credit to maintain the balance between economic expansion and economic contraction.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 05, 2008
US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery
18,000 Jobs? Not Really.
Housing: Going Down, Down, Down
Who's Got My Credit Default Swap Back?
Counterparty Risk is the Real Sleeper Issue
The Fed: Too Little, Too Late
Europe, Santa Barbara, China, and The Motley Fool
It's that time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and present my annual forecast issue. Jumping to the conclusion, I think a recession has begun, so the relevant question is to ask when the recovery will begin. We will look at the housing market, the continued implosion of the credit markets, and the deteriorating employment picture. Will the Fed worry more about employment and recession or about the very real inflation pressures? Oil? Gold? Which way the dollar? I am going to make some unusual calls, as well as highlight what I think will be the next looming problem in the growing credit crisis. We'll try to cover it all in just a few pages.
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Friday, January 04, 2008
Wall Street Eyes Wide Shut to Inflation and Impact of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments / Stock-Markets / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
As our economic ship continues to spring leaks, the goldilocks crowd still clings to the false belief that the Fed can easily keep us afloat with a few more rate cuts. This comfort has sustained many upbeat forecasts despite overwhelming evidence of an unfolding economic and monetary catastrophe of historic proportions.
On Monday we learned that Merrill Lynch, having just sold a $4.5 billion stake to the Singapore government, is again passing around the hat, this time wooing the Chinese and Saudi governments for badly needed funds. This of course follows similar moves by U.S. investment houses Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns. These developments should be disconcerting on many levels, yet most seem unperturbed.
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Monday, December 31, 2007
Memory Lane and President Bush's US Tax Suts / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
As we enter the New Year I thought it appropriate to reflect on President Bush's tax cuts, the ones that the Democrats and their media flunkies screamed would wreck the US economy by generating an unsustainable deficit. It was easy — and still is — to spring to the conclusion that the Democrats' response was driven by opportunism and a deeply ingrained cynicism.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
America's Currency Problems are due to Bad Economics / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Bernanke has now cut rates three time in the last three months. Given Bernanke's Keynesian instincts it was always on the cards that he would go for cuts. The real question is how far will he go. Some commentators are urging him to cut rates further. The origin of this dangerous advice comes from the inverted treasury yield curve, with short term rates now at 4.25 per cent as against 4 per cent for long term rates. Now what these people are really saying is that Bernanke should force rates down below 4 per cent.Read full article... Read full article...