Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, October 01, 2007
Unpredictable US Economy Ahead / Economics / US Economy
By: Regent_Markets
A new low for the US dollar, and a mixed bag of economic news, gave investors few clues as to what the FOMC might do next with the interest rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
US Housing Crash Deepens As the US Drifts Towards Stagflation / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Shiller House Price Index which reflects the housing market of America's ten largest cities fell by an annualized 4.5%, which greatly increases the probability of a US recession sparked by the deepening housing bear market that has already made itself felt in the form of the Subprime mortgage sparked credit crunch. As an adjunct to falling house prices, property sales also continue to tumble with the National Association of Realtors reporting sales of family homes falling by 4.3% in August alone to the lowest annualized rate since August 2002. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 24, 2007
NOLTE NOTES The Halo Effect Continues from the US Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The Fed surprised many in the markets and cut rates half of one percent (50bp) and the equity markets cheered to the tune of 400 Dow points. Either the Fed is VERY interested in heading off recession or there is more bad news ahead that they would like to be able to cut off before it built too difficult to overcome. The inflation news was certainly good – enough to provide the additional cover for the Fed to cut by 50bp. The housing numbers reported last week were certainly very poor and combined with a few corporate reports (FedEx and Circuit City) indicating that the consumer remains inthe struggling mode.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 22, 2007
House Prices to Drop by 50%, US Still Headed for A Recession Despite Fed Rate Cut / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
A Sea Change at the Fed
Transmission Problems
A 50% Drop in Housing Prices
Wildness Lies in Wait
I Still Think Recession
It's Good to Be Home
The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in The Tempest. I think this week we witnessed a true sea change in central bank policy, on both sides of the Atlantic. The stock market rejoiced over a 50 basis point cut from the Fed, assuming that it will stimulate growth and avoid anything more than a slowdown. In this week's letter, we ponder several questions. Why did the Fed decide to cut now when the rhetoric of just a few weeks ago was that of inflation fighting? What do they see? Are more rate cuts coming? Will they make any difference? And who is Frederic (Rick) Mishkin and why is he maybe the most important Fed governor you haven't heard of? There's a lot of ground to cover, and it should make for an interesting letter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Economy Looks at Recession; Whilst China Consumer Boom Takes Off / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: If you watch much CNBC or read the financial newspapers, you probably noticed a small-but-growing stream of Wall Street experts forecasting a recession for our country.
Right now, economists put the odds of a U.S. recession at one in three. But, in my view, they might want to consider ratcheting up their forecasts …
Six Signs of a Coming Recession in the U.S.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
How What the Fed Does, Doesn't Matter - The Apposite Economy / Interest-Rates / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
President Bush we now know is “Damn Certain”. Alan Greenspan, retired Fed Chairman now turned economic rabblerouser released his new memoir on Monday that could have been subtitled “Damn Certain too”. Ben Bernanke, the current Fed chairman and according to the two previously mentioned gentleman is doing a fine job, possibly a heckuva one, will no doubt publish his account one day of what is happening to the economy with a subtitle, “Damn Certain As Well”. These are, it seems, the only three people in America certain of anything and if that is the case, we are in more serious trouble than previously thought.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Now in Growth Recession, Full Blown Recession Tomorrow? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On a year-over-year basis, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) is settling in at around 2%. Although the economy's precise potential growth rate is unknown, most estimates center around 2-3/4%. Therefore, it is safe to say that the economy currently is growing below its potential growth rate and is likely to continue so in the foreseeable future. This situation is sometimes referred to as a growth recession. As economic growth persists below potential, the unemployment rate begins edging higher and the manufacturing capacity utilization (operating) rate begins moving lower. Chart 1 shows that these events are beginning to occur now. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Why Consumer Led Recoveries Can Be Bad For Economies / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There is genuine bafflement among orthodox economists (at least in private) about the forces that burst bubbles and bring economies to their knees. Whenever a slowdown emerges the inevitable impulse to call for rate cuts make itself felt. I have even had economists tell me that America's post-WWII boom vindicates the Keynesian vote, forgetting — perhaps they don't know — that Keynesians predicted something like 6-8 million unemployed because of the massive drop in government spending once the war was over. In fact, for the fiscal years 1944 to 1947 government spending dropped by $56 billion, a fall of 59 per cent! The result was a boom in employment that completely refuted Keynesianism.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 14, 2007
Americas Economic Dominance Fades As the US Dollar Continues to Slump / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
American Consumers are Losing their Crown - With the U.S. Dollar Index breaking decisively below its long-term support level, the sun is finally setting on the golden age of American consumption. As America 's economic dominance fades, so too will the faith in the central thesis that has explained its apparent success and has shaped the majority of recent economic theory. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
US Economic Crisis: The US Political Leadership Has Failed / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
As the 2007 economic collapse picks up speed, it's time to take a hard look at the performance of the U.S. national political leadership in meeting some of their most fundamental responsibilities. It's time to face the fact of serious failure over the last quarter century.
During this time, the leaders of both political parties and of major institutions such as the Federal Reserve have presided over the abandonment of some of the most solemn obligations of constitutional government. They have done this in order to embrace an agenda favorable mainly to the financial, corporate, and government elites.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Federal Reserve Chatter – Looking Forward to tomorrow's Economic Data / Economics / US Economy
By: David_Urban
Monday was an interesting day as Federal Reserve officials gave speeches which were dissected by the market for clues ahead of next weeks FOMC meeting.
Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve and one of the two governors who asked for a discount rate decrease, cited risks to consumer spending from the subprime fallout and downward pressure but also cautioned against a bailout.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
US Economy Heading for a Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There have been oodles of commentary about the effects of the subprime real estate fiasco and how this will impact on the US economy. The first thing to bear in mind is that this financial disaster should be laid at the feet of the Fed. Without its loose monetary policies the credit to fund subprime mortgages on a massive scale would not have been available. Pumping masses of credit into the banking system is like pouring water into a bucket that is full. It's gotta overflow. And this is precisely what America got: an overflow of credit that went into funding a lot of dodgy loans — and not all of them are mortgages. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 10, 2007
Contrary to Opinion, US is Not In a Recession Yet / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
First it was if, then it became when and now it is how much. The very weak jobs report on Friday moved the Fed to front and center in the debate on economic growth and how aggressive should the Fed be in cutting interest rates to save a faltering economy. While a negative reading on “job creation” does not necessarily mean we are entering a recession, the likelihood of one has increased. However, other economic reports last week were not as dire, as the consumer seemed content to spend, judging by the retail sales figures provided by the various retail companies.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Consumer Confidence is the Greatest Bubble of All! / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
If you're like me, you have sat back over the past month or two and wondered what took so long. This is not to say that I am a gloomist by any means. There are a very small percentage of us that look at the economy and markets from a very different perspective. A perspective grounded in common sense. I can distill the difference down to a simple comparison: Most of the world believes there is a free lunch. We do not.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Manufacturing is the key factor to the US Economy Avoiding Recession, Not the Sub-prime Mortgage Market Meltdown / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
It would be an understatement to call the current thinking of the economic commentariat confused. For this lot consumer spending drives the economy. Therefore it follows that the subprime mortgage crisis will hit consumer spending and then spread to manufacturing resulting in a full-blown recession. (This is not good news — unless your name is Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid). Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the US economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 03, 2007
How Payroll Taxes Kill Jobs / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Actually they don’t — so long as the market is allowed to factor them into lower net pay. First and foremost, it should never be forgotten that payroll taxes are part of the worker’s gross wage. Raising payroll taxes is economically the same as legislating for higher wage rates. Nevertheless, I did have one so-called economist make the ludicrous argument that because the government spends the payroll receipts no unemployment can emerge because aggregate spending has been increased. This is the kind of economic idiocy that drives me up the wall.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
The War on Working Americans - Part II / Economics / US Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
This article was written to assess the state of working America in the run-up to Labor Day, 2007. Organized labor today is severely weakened following decades of government and business duplicity to crush it. Part I reviewed the labor movement's rise in the 19th century and subsequent decline post-WW II and especially in the last three decades. Hope arose for some change in the Democrat-led 100th Congress. A weak effort emerged, but Senate Republicans killed it.Organized labor is struggling to remain relevant and claw its way back. The enormous obstacles it faces are reviewed below as well as the condition of working Americans today in a globalized world affecting their lives and welfare heading "south" in the "land of opportunity" offering pathetically little.
The Loss of High-Paying Jobs from Outsourcing Under Globalized Market-Based Rules Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
US / Mexico : Failed System and Failed State / Economics / US Economy
By: Jim_Willie_CB
TRIBUTE TO KURT RICHEBACHER. He was a valued colleague and an inspiration to my newsletter. Our week together in Cannes will forever be etched in my memory.
Amusement is my response when other writers call me or my work ‘extremist' as Claude Cormier recently has. He is a topnotch analyst out of Quebec , whose work is respected and admired. He himself cites extreme events, like comparisons between the United States and Argentina , in the decimation of the middle class amidst prolific inflation and financial sector foul play. Labels are not kind, but my job is to analyze the extreme situation on a host of fronts. To be honest, the label is taken here as an extreme compliment, since it means my perceptions are squarely on target. Additional extreme observations can be detailed, which points to systemic breakdown. The US financial system shows signs of failure, the USEconomy suffering deeply in association. If one were to list the extreme events and factors in the last few years, reaching a climax nowadays, the recitation would flow over into several dozen pages.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 24, 2007
US Recession, It's a Shoe In / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
The current economic debate really boils down to one essential question: "Will there be a recession?" To me, the question has about as much vitality as debating whether Roger Clemens will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. (With over 300 wins and more strikeouts than any other pitcher besides Nolan Ryan, the Rocket is a sure thing for Cooperstown ). Similarly, a recession is not a question of “if” but merely of “when”.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Don’t Underestimate the U.S. Consumer? The Global Economy Is Strong? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
These are two common refrains from mainstream economists who never foresaw a recession until it already had been declared by the NBER. Today we received some information that ought to give these mainstreamers pause for thought.Read full article... Read full article...