Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
No Economic Depression on the Horizon ... / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Last week I told you that the mortgage crisis is not over. This week, the message I want you to come away with is that the mortgage and credit crisis do not present a doomsday scenario.
Don't misunderstand — I am not cavalier about the financial crisis the U.S. is going through. It is scary stuff. Probably the worst crisis this country has seen since the Great Depression.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Inflation Deflation Battle / Economics / US Economy
By: Fake_Ben
Round One Winner: Schiff - In a recent article, I wrote about Mike “Mish” Shedlock of the blog Global Economic Trend Analysis ( http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com ) and Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. ( http://www.europac.net/ ). I separated them into the camps of the deflationistas (Shedlock) and the inflationistas (Schiff) .Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 31, 2008
Further Weakness in the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The worst quarter since the first half of 2002 will be in the books at the close today, and not a day too soon. The news of the week included still poor housing data, although a few glimmers of hope in that the declines were less than originally estimated. Too were the refi and new purchase activity, reported by Mortgage Bankers Association, jumped as mortgages rates moved modestly lower. This week will be loaded with the usual first week data, including employment, which will likely show another contraction in payrolls, further fueling those sitting on the fence that we are indeed in a recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 24, 2008
Savings and the US Economy- Fallacy of Including Home Ownership in Savings / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
A while ago David Malpass, financial writer and chief economist at Bear Stearns, (and I do mean that Bear Stearns) argued that US savings are under reported because they exclude "cash flow improvements from realized gains on equities, houses, and mortgage refinancing." Now I am not referring to Malpass as a means to take a swipe at Bear Stearns and the quality of its advisors: that's the market's job. What Malpass did was to inadvertently draw attention to the confusion that reigns among the economic commentariat with respect to the nature of saving and its critical importance for economic welfare. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Wall St. Stocks Rally on Philly Fed US Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
"NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Thursday, pushing the Dow briefly up more than 1 percent, as a reading on factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell by less than analysts' had forecast, improving views on the U.S. economic outlook."
Tell me. On what basis did "analysts" have to predict what the Philly Fed March factory activity headline would be? For that matter, on what basis do "analysts" have for predicting what weekly initial jobless claims will be.
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Monday, March 10, 2008
Can Supply-side Economics Save the US Economy from the Boom Bust Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Current trends in the US economy are worrying a lot of people -- and so they should. Unfortunately worrying never solved any problems, only action can do that. But in order to solve a problem once must first identify it. Remember that economic trends are the product of deeper forces. For instance, a continual rise in productivity year after year is the fruit of capital accumulation increasing faster than the population. On the other hand, the so-called boom-bust cycle is the result of bad economics. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Kings of Denial: What Bush and Bernanke are NOT telling you about the Economy ... / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Never underestimate the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to trap themselves into a pattern of denial.
That's what Fed Chairman Greenspan did in the early 2000s, even while he was helping to create the greatest housing bubble of all time.
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
What if Conventional Wisdom On Economic Growth and Consumer Spending Is Wrong? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
There it was, right in the middle of the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal about four paragraphs down in the lead story titled " Decline in Home Prices Accelerates " - more evidence that the economy as we know it could be fundamentally flawed, yet you'd never get a hint of that even from reading one of the the world's finest business publication.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Bernanke's Mission Impossible- To Boost the Economy To Win the Election / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ben Bernanke's Mission Impossible is to deliver a favorable economic climate conducive towards a Republican election victory in November 2008,
The mission requires the US Fed to -
- abandon the defense of the dollar,
- to abandon the fight against inflation,
- to prop up the ailing banking system by as much money as is required (money supply),
Monday, February 25, 2008
US Economic Boom and Busts / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The US Economy: Been there before - There are times when in order to find out where we are we need to discover how we got there. And this is certainly the case with economies, and the US economy is no exception. This is why economic lessons are vitally important and why they need to be constantly aired lest the public be led astray by demagogues and economic illiterates. (Think Obama and Hillary Clinton). One of the most important lessons that was largely disregarded in the 1990s is that booms are always followed by busts. (The dishonest US mainstream media's response to this fact is to blame recessions on Republicans and always credit Democrats with the good times).Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
US Fed's Up Beat Forecasts on Pessimistic Economic Growth Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- The Muddle Through Fed
- Risks to the Downside
- Consumers Gone Wild
- Leaving the Ballpark After All these Years
This week the Fed offered us their forecasts for 2008-10 for the economy, inflation and employment. We will look at some of the details which I think will be of interest. Then we glance at some data on the savings rate which suggests consumer spending may be in for more of a challenge than many think. There is a lot of ground to cover.
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Friday, February 22, 2008
Inflation: America 's Greatest Export / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Unfortunately one of the few things still made in America is inflation. In fact, it now ranks as our greatest export.
A significant by-product of the current global economic system, wherein Americans spend money they do not earn to buy foreign products that they do not make, is that trillions of dollars are now parked in foreign banks just looking for somewhere to go.
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Saving as the Source of Most Spending and the Implications for the 'Economic Stimulus Package' / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Standing Keynesian GDP on its head: Saving Not Consumption as the Main Source of Spending - Professor George Reisman writes: According to the prevailing Keynesian dogma, consumption is the main form of spending in the economic system, while saving is mere non-spending and thus a 'leakage' from the spending stream. This dogma underlies much of government economic policy in the United States, including the so-called economic stimulus package that has just been enacted. In this article, I prove, to the contrary, that consumption is not the main form of spending in the economic system and that the source of most spending is, in fact, saving. I prove my claims by starting with the very formulations of the expenditure aggregates presented by the Keynesian doctrine itself.
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Bernanke's State of the US Economy Speech: "You are all Dead Ducks!" / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Even veteran Fed-watchers were caught off-guard by Chairman Bernanke's performance before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Bernanke was expected to make routine comments on the state of the economy but, instead, delivered a 45 minute sermon detailing the afflictions of the foundering financial system. The Senate chamber was stone-silent throughout. The gravity of the situation is finally beginning to sink in. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Financial Destiny of United States is in China's Hands / Economics / US Economy
By: Professor_Emeritus
Uncle Sam is Crying "Uncle" - Tertium datur - People tend to think in terms of black-and-white. Many of my correspondents think that either hyperinflation or deflation is in store for the dollar; tertium non datur (no third possibility given). I would say tertium datur . The third possibility is a hybrid of hyperinflation and deflation. I described this scenario in my previous article “Opening the Mint to Gold and Silver”. It is possible, even probable, that we shall witness collapsing world trade and collapsing world employment together with competitive currency devaluations, as the three superpowers compete in trying to corner gold. The lure of gold is very strong. “There is no fever like gold fever” and, contrary to conventional wisdom, governments are especially susceptible. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Flying the Chinese-Made American Flag to Stimulate the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Walter_Brasch
Walking down Main Street, pushing a grocery cart loaded with clothes, toys, and appliances was Marshbaum. Fastened to the right front corner of the cart was an American flag tied onto a three-foot ruler.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Credit Crisis is Getting Worse as ISM Services Survey Falls out of Bed / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- Consumers, Credit, and Complications
- Unemployment is Understated
- The Credit Crisis is Simply Getting Worse
- The Falling Knife of Credit Spreads
- Capital Ratios Are Under More and More Pressure
- The ISM Services Survey Simply Falls out of Bed
- Upgrades, Orlando, and a Proud Dad
The evidence continues to mount that the US is in a recession. In this week's letter, we will look at the blind spot in the unemployment statistics, the continuing meltdown in the credit markets, and the simply awful service sector implosion in the ISM data, and then add a few thoughts on the housing market. There is a lot of data to cover, so this week's letter should be particularly interesting. The letter will print longer than normal, since there are lots of graphs.
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Thursday, February 07, 2008
The Dichotomy of the US Economic Downturn / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
We crave transparency but once we have it we tend to no longer want it. We seek information, but once we get the news we react poorly. We look for some signs from a time past hoping that what once happened could possibly shed light on what is. But this time it is different.
At no time in recent history have we been confronted by so much conflicting information, cloaked appraisals of where we are and where we are headed, veiled attempts at regaining normalcy or risk with as little risk as possible and all this while we have two economies running side-by-side. One economy, that according to Mr. Bush is doing just fine and the other one, the rest of us live with each day.
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Thursday, February 07, 2008
Case Shiller Home Price Index the Leading Indicator of Economic Downturn / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
By popular demand, the collection of charts featuring the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index has been updated. First, the home price index versus one of stupidest things that economists have ever dreamed up - the home ownership cost substitute used in the consumer price index, otherwise known as "owners' equivalent rent". Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Ron Paul Talks about the US Economic Collapse / Politics / US Economy
By: Brent_Harmes
Anyone who has not listened carefully to what Congressman Ron Paul is saying should probably have a quick listen. Congressman (and Presidential Candidate) Paul has served on The House Banking Committee and The Financial Services Committee. If anyone is in a position to see what our country has in store financially it is this man.Read full article... Read full article...