Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, August 01, 2008
US Jobs Decline for 7th Month, Deep Revisions to Bad Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Bank Bailouts and Weak Economy Ensure Worsening US Budget Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will come in at $389 billion in 2008 and the 2009 deficit should arrive at $482 billion.
The provisional estimate is a snapshot of current spending plans that does not take into account the emerging economic reality. This year seven banks have failed, which may be a grim preview of the forthcoming problems among regional and second-tier banks. The economic slowdown has generated tax receipts through the first nine months of fiscal 2008 equal to 17.9% of GDP, which is less than the 40-year average.
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fallacies and Lies of Bailouts as US Heads for Economic Armageddon / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett
While Elton John made us think of Norma Jean as a candle in the wind, the financial markets in 2008 bring to mind a stick of lit dynamite in a hurricane. Does an explosion loom before the unpredictable gusts finally dissipate? If so, gold may be the only answer… The Misnomer
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
It's shocking to see so many who remain in denial about the economy, specifically the pundits. Until they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (a ridiculously misleading metric – see my previous article “How Washington is Fooling You With GDP Data”) they refuse to admit we are in a recession. And the media acts as puppets, repeating these same lines without scrutinizing the data. Who do these people think they're kidding? If you're running a show designed to help investors, shouldn't you be ahead of the curve instead of behind it? Serving as broadcasters for inaccurate data that's been manipulated to fool the public does nothing to aid an audience looking for real investment guidance. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
New York Governor Warns Of Economic and Budget Crisis / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The New York Times is reporting Paterson Warns of Economic Crisis .In a rare, brief televised address, Gov. David A. Paterson announced on Tuesday afternoon that he would call the Legislature into an emergency session on Aug. 19 to address what he called an economic and budget crisis confronting New York State as a result of plummeting revenues and rising costs.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
US Recession Trend Status on US GDP Growth Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: A hectic week on the economic calendar is highlighted by the initial look at second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Remember, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so doomsayers have targeted this week's release as confirmation of their pessimism.
Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 28-August 1) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of July 28-August 1 will see a fairly significant amount of US macro data. The major releases will be clustered near the end of the week on Thursday and Friday. Thursday will see the publication of the preliminary GDP for Q2, jobless claims, Chicago PMI and the employment cost index for Q2. The week will be capped by the release of the July non-farm payrolls report and the estimate of the ISM of national manufacturing conditions for that same month. Tuesday will see the release of July consumer confidence survey by the Conference Board and Wednesday will see the ADP estimate of payrolls for July. The week will see another heavy five days of earnings statements with heavyweights such as Disney, Starbucks, Chevron and Berkshire-Hathaway reporting near the end of the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
US Conflicting Economic Data : Payrolls and Second Quarter GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, these two data are likely to paint two very different portraits regarding the condition of the economy. On Thursday the market will observe the preliminary estimate of economic growth during the second quarter of the year, followed by the publication of the July non-farm payrolls the next morning. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Commercial Bankruptcies Soar as BLS Jobs Data Shown as Worthless / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The McClatchy Washington Bureau is reporting Commercial bankruptcies soar, reflecting widening economic woes . Commercial filings for the first half of 2008 are up 45 percent from last year, as the national climate for commerce continues to deteriorate amid rising energy and food costs, mounting job losses, tighter credit and a reticence among consumers to part with discretionary income.
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Credit Crisis and Housing Bust- Don't Worry the World Will Not End / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- The World Will Not End
- Take a Deep Breath
- 9% Growth in Housing or a 4% Loss?
Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what numbers you look at. However, oil is down and there is reason to think it may have further to go on the downside. We cover all this and more, as we first look at why the world is not going to end.
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Friday, July 18, 2008
US Consumer Retail Sales Contraction Worse than 2001 / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Don't write off the U.S. consumer, right? Wrong. On a year-over-year basis there has been a sharp deceleration in nominal retail sales growth. On a year-over-year basis, there has been a sharp contraction in price-adjusted retail sales. The chart below using quarterly average data illustrates this. Growth in nominal retail sales peaked back in the first quarter of 2006 at 7.6% in this cycle. In the second quarter of this year, nominal retail sales growth had slowed to just 2.6%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Status Report on the Collapse of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
With the economic news of the week of July 14—the continuing crisis among mortgage lenders, the onset of bank failures, the announced downsizing of General Motors, the slide of the Dow-Jones below 11,000—we are seeing the ongoing collapse of the U.S. economy. Even the super-rich are becoming nervous as cries for an emergency suspension of short selling ring out. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Bernanke Delivers 'Hogwash' Testimony to Congress / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testified Before the U.S. Senate in the Fed's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress . Let's take a look at some of the highlights.
The economy has continued to expand, but at a subdued pace. In the labor market, private payroll employment has declined this year, falling at an average pace of 94,000 jobs per month through June. Employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors has been particularly hard hit, although employment declines in a number of other sectors are evident as well. The unemployment rate has risen and now stands at 5-1/2 percent.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 14-18) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of July 14-18 will see a major five days macro data, earnings and Fed Talk in the context of a very shaky market. Just a few potential market moving events upcoming on the schedule are: the two-day testimony on monetary policy and the economy by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Earnings statements that may shape the entire trading week will be published will be JP Morgan on Wednesday and Merrill Lynch, Citi and Thornburg Mortgage on Thursday. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
The US Economy Is in Deep Trouble / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Over the past few weeks many notable analysts have made the case that the economy is in the process of recovery. The market has celebrated the wonder of the “resilient consumer.” Given the still fragile state of the economy we think that this is a bit overblown. A cold-eyed, hard-nosed analysis of the true condition of all things financial provides us with a very different assessment of the economy. But, with a major week of fundamental data and the onset of earnings season for financials upon us we thought it pertinent to put a few ideas to rest.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 11, 2008
US Trade:Deficit Realities and Fallout / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
I want everyone to forget the first sentence of last week's column. Things are not scary; they're bordering on out of control on several fronts. In particular, there are two items which are getting nearly no press that urgently need to be discussed. While the media world continues to focus on whether or not Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have another 12 hours of solvency left, our trade deficit continues to persist despite continued weakness in the Dollar and out of control import prices. I like to use these two macro measures as a barometer of not only what is going on now, but what is likely to happen down the road.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Strip Mall Vacancies Spike to Levels Last Seen in 1995 / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
MoneyNews is reporting Retail Property, Vacancies Q2 Worst in 30 Years .U.S. store closings and cutbacks turned the second quarter into the worst for strip mall owners in 30 years, as budget-conscious consumers flocked to low-cost warehouse-style grocery centers, according to a report by real estate research firm Reis.
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Friday, July 04, 2008
US Jobs Report Less than Expected; Based on BLS Statistical Assumptions / Economics / US Economy
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $12.90 to $931.90 in New York yesterday and silver closed at $18.28, down 5 cents. Gold remained at these levels in Asia but has fallen near to yesterday's lows in early trading in Europe. Oil has fallen marginally < $144.40 down 0.6% - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08> and the dollar is flat after yesterday's strong gains.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2008
US Jobs Decline for 6th Consecutive Month Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 390,500, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 379,250.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
US Economy Experiencing Wage Price Deflation Spiral / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The deflation train picks up steam as AirTran Asks Employees To Take "Temporary" Pay Cuts . On Wednesday, AirTran Holdings asked for temporary wage concessions from all of its employees, TradeTheNews reported. AirTran will ask all workers to accept pay cuts between 5% and 13%, and officers will take a 15% cut, effective in August, for six months.
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