Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 22-26) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 22-26 will see a modest week of US macro data. However, given the dislocation in the markets, the upcoming week will provide a test to see if recent steps taken by global central banks and the immanent mergers of large financial's can inject a measure of confidence and stability into markets. The major data releases for the week will be the publication of the existing homes sales and new home sales data for August on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The durable goods report will be released on Wednesday and the weekly jobless claims report will be published on Thursday. The week will conclude with the final estimate of Q2'08 GDP and the consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 19, 2008
The United States Becoming an Impoverished Nation / Politics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
Everything the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department are trying to do to stem the tide of the self-destructing U.S. financial system is a stopgap. They are locking the barn door after the horse—many horses—have already escaped, and they know it.
They also know the cause of the crisis is not subprime mortgage lending—that was just the trigger. Cries to re-regulate the failed financial industry are coming from Congress, the media, and investors around the world. But lax regulation is not the cause of the problem either.
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Saturday, September 13, 2008
Banana Backed Securities Turning United States into a Banana Republic / Stock-Markets / US Economy
By: David_Petch
Imagine if you will the US government finally after nearly 50 years opened the vaults of Fort Knox for an inventory of gold by an "External Auditor". There have been claims by the folks of the US Government of audits as recent as one year ago…there are a number of thoughts regarding IF there is in fact any gold present in Fort Knox. This article is not intended to debate the above thought, but to metaphorically "think" what they truly would find within the vaults of Fort Knox. My thoughts are that opening the vault of Fort Knox as above would result in seeing it filled with bananas…quite a contrast to the expected yellow objects "thought" to be contained behind tonnes of steel.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
US Hiring Intentions Lowest In 17 Years: Manpower / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
MarketWatch, citing data from Manpower, is reporting Glum outlook on jobs .Unless you work in the oil, gas or related mining industries, the job market is unlikely to look brighter in the fourth quarter, and even retailers are glum about hiring for the upcoming holiday season, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
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Monday, September 08, 2008
US Economy Confounds Economic Pundits / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
What gives here? The Commerce Department reports that GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent while unemployment rose to 6.1 per cent, giving partisan commentators enough ammunition to attack each other. Politically I'm a very conservative man who thoroughly detests the Democratic Party and who tends to think of most journalists as nothing better than leftwing cockroaches, an opinion that has been greatly strengthened by the media's disgusting attacks on Sarah Palin. Nevertheless, the one thing I will never do is bend economics for partisan reasons. To do so would be to cheat my readers.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
US Employment Data Gives Sobering Does of Economic Reality / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
In the 1980's, the Ford Motor Company used the slogan “Quality is Job #1”. This was helpful in their campaign to compete with their Japanese counterparts who were perceived to have higher quality automobiles. It would seem, based on recent trends in the employment market that government is now Job #1. This morning's employment situation report contained some real shockers, the biggest being that the US unemployment rate is now at 6.1%, jumping from 5.7% a month ago. Out of the 7 subsectors tracked in the report, only government and education/healthcare are expanding. Since a good percentage of education and healthcare expenditures are financed either directly or indirectly by the government, it would seem that Uncle Sam is about the only one hanging out a Help Wanted sign these days. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
GDP Deflator Fantasyland as Investor Wealth disappears Down the Rabbit Hole / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In recent months, investors have been unjustly chastised for their lack of consistency. In truth, they have an unblemished record of drawing the wrong conclusions. Last week’s 2nd quarter GDP report provides the freshest evidence of market cluelessness. In its report, the Commerce Department stunned economy watchers by showing a 3.3% annualized increase in 2nd Quarter GDP. The robust growth apparently wrong-footed those expecting further recessionary signals, lent further strength to the current dollar rally, and encouraged previously cautious investors to take another look at U.S. stocks.
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Friday, September 05, 2008
US Unemployment Soars as Jobs Decline for 8th Consecutive Month / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending Aug. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 429,000. The 4-week moving average was 438,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 441,250.
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
US Economy Second Half Stimulus and Bailouts Bounce? / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett
With U.S. home prices crashing, inflation expectations rising, and consumer confidence plummeting, you would think that the U.S. economy would be shedding jobs at a pace comparable, at minimum, to previous recessions. This hasn't been the case, at least not yet. Rather, despite posting job losses in each of the last 7-months U.S. nonfarm payrolls have held up surprisingly well this year. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Contradictory Economic Reports Whipsaw Investor Expectations / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: No wonder this economy is so hard to figure out: The economic reports are as volatile as the economy itself.
Just when the dreaded "R" word seemed to be creeping back into the daily office chatter, a few economic reports last week seemed to reaffirm that the enhanced pessimism may be a tad bit early.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Tale of Two Shopping Malls / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Tustain
"...Overcapacity – first of credit, then of real estate – drove the price of renting sharply lower, bankrupting cautious investors along with big borrowers..."
A TEXAN CUSTOMER who came to see me a few months ago told me a story which illustrates the fine mess we're in.
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Monday, September 01, 2008
The US Economy and Global Monetary Disorder / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," so said Milton Friedman. After that it was down hill. The Chicago school so defined inflation and deflation that they largely severed the monetary root from which these phenomena spring. Hence a stable price level was seen as the ideal. (Even the great Knut Wicksell subscribed to the fallacy of the stable price level). Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
Can Exports Save US Economy from Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Since the start of the U.S. housing downturn we've been told that consumers were in trouble. After the subprime market shakeout we were told our economy was in trouble. And after credit tightened up we were told to expect an inevitable U.S. recession.
But yet ... we're not in a recession. At least not technically speaking since that is defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Soaring Savings Rate Heralds End of Consumerism / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Revisiting the M3 Contraction I stated " consumers are saving, rather than spending their stimulus checks ". Some found that statement hard to believe. Let's take a look. Sev writes: " Mish, the argument that more people are saving is something I find hard to believe. Their bills are skyrocketing and "price" increases are eating into their monthly costs. Maybe some have paid down bills but I would bet the vast majority don't have the means. Now maybe ultra rich people are moving their vast sums into perceived safer investment vehicles but the thought that actual saving is increasing I don't think makes complete sense.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 18-22) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of August 18-22 will see a very light week of economic data on the calendar. Aside from Dallas Fed President Fisher's comments on the US Economy on Wed, the only potentially market moving macro data for the week will be the Monday release of the PPI and Tuesday publication of the Housing Starts series for July. The remainder of the major data for the week will be released on Thursday when the weekly jobless claims series, the August Philadelphia Fed survey and the June index of leading economic indicators are published. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Global Goldilocks Economy ? / Economics / US Economy
By: Kurt_Kasun
The new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted. The Global Goldilocks view is that the rest of the world slows just enough to dampen commodity pressures and prices, but the world does not slow too much to wreck the American economy. The dollar strengthens resulting in capital flows into the US . And voila-- we have a return to the glory days of the 1990s. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Social Security Is Morally Bankrupt / Politics / US Economy
By: Alex_Epstein
August 14 marks Social Security's 73rd birthday--placing it eight years past standard retirement age. But, despite the program's $10-trillion-plus dollar shortfall, no politician dares to suggest that this disastrous program be phased out and retired; all agree on one absolute: Social Security must be saved. While the program may have financial problems, virtually everyone believes that some form of mandatory government-run retirement program is morally necessary.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
American Dream Optimism in Denial of Inflation and Slumping Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In holding overnight rates steady at 2% this week, the Fed once again put forth its belief that despite a cascade of horrific financial data, the economy was likely to continue to grow slowly and that inflation would moderate. Although wrong on both counts, this view is consistent with the relative optimism that prevails across the country. After nearly two decades of an uninterrupted consumption binge, most Americans simply refuse to believe that anything can seriously derail the American economy. It's a pleasant dream, but the wakeup call can't be too far off. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Soaring Jobless Claims and the "L" Shaped Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Implications Of An Overleveraged Consumer For an economy overleveraged on consumer spending the chart could hardly look worse. Yet, it is going to get worse, lots worse. Hiring has stalled, commercial real estate is hitting the skids, vacancy rates at malls are rising, lease rates are dropping. In short, the Shopping Center Economic Model Is History .
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Monday, August 04, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 4th- 8th 2008) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the personal income/spending report on Monday will shape the upcoming week in US financial markets. Other first tier data to be published during the upcoming week will be the ISM non-manufacturing reports on Tuesday, jobless claims on Thursday and non-farm productivity/unit labor cost report on Friday. The week will see another five days of plentiful earnings reports. Of the large number of firms reporting the releases by AMBAC, MBIA, Freddie Mac and Proctor and Gamble all retain the capacity to move the markets. Due to the FOMC meeting, there will be no Fed speak on during the week of August 4-8 Read full article... Read full article...