Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, May 15, 2017
Trump Rally or Geopolitical Meltdown: Currency Management for Dollar Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the U.S. currency against a basket of other major currencies, hit a 14-year high on January 3rd of this year. The USD’s reinvigorated bull run after Donald Trump was elected as Barrack Obama’s successor as President of the U.S.A, on expectations for major infrastructure spending and tax cuts during his mandate, has featured prominently in the news. However, the U.S. dollar has more quietly been on an extended rally for a few years now and despite its worst January in 30 years since that early post-New Year peak, many analysts expect that to continue over 2017.
Thursday, May 11, 2017
The USD is Going Higher from Here... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zach
Got a great set-up here on the $USD index for readers of The Market Oracle.The USD will be going higher from here. How do I know? - The charts are
talking (screaming infact) to us!
So, let's take a look at the UUP DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts...
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Monday, May 01, 2017
Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: EU Economic Forecasts. USD: Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speaks, Personal Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
USD Cycle Update - 23rd April / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This Update will provide both a near term and long term update on the USD an where I think it stands in its short and long term cycles. My first two charts are the same near term daily chart. The first provides my cycle counts for the past 6 Trading Cycles. The second shows a potential Blue Fork Channel that should hold it. USD did find a TC low on day 17 last week.
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Monday, April 03, 2017
USD and Gold: Intermediate and Super Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Beyond the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle and Yearly Cycle (2-3 Intermediate Cycle), there are also longer Cycles for all assets. Gold for example has a 4 Year Cycle and the USD has a 3 Year Cycle (measured Low to Low). The USD also has a 15 Year Super Cycle (5 of its 3 Year Cycles).
I have stated that my longer term Cycle analysis indicates the USD should be making its 15 Year Super Cycle top in 2017 but I am not sure just yet if this is behind us or dead ahead. As always, the Price and Time action on the charts will guide me. For now the Wedge in my first chart needs to be watched closely over the next couple of weeks. A break to the upside of my Red down trend line will confirm a new Intermediate Cycle for the USD while a more serious breach of my Blue Uptrend line that goes all the way back to early 2014 would have me strongly consider that the 15 year top is in.
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Sunday, April 02, 2017
Time to Repair the Deflating US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Caldaro
Every century the US has been existence there has been a new USD. And we believe it is time for a new US Dollar in the 21st century. In the following paragraphs we hope to explain why this is required, and how this could be accomplished in the coming years. First a little history.
In the 18th century (1792) the US established the first USD with the one ounce Silver coin. There was no paper currency only Silver and Gold coins. The US was on a Silver standard, and one ounce of Silver was worth $1.
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Thursday, March 30, 2017
USD May Stay Soft in Near Term / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times.
Tuesday, March 28, 2017
US Dollar and Gold Dumb Market Myths About to Go Up in Smoke… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Everywhere I look I see talk of a major $USD bull market being underway. I see this coming from CNBC as well as so-called “investment gurus.”
This is odd… because the $USD is DOWN against every major currency thus far in 2017.
I’m not making this up. The $USD is DOWN against the Yen, the Euro, the Swiss Franc, even the British pound.
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Monday, March 27, 2017
Top Ten US Dollar Risks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The USDollar has never been in greater danger for losing its dominant position as global reserve currency and payment standard. Challenges to its supremacy are many and with each passing month, more threats are put in place. While the volumes of trade payment in Chinese RMB grow slowly, and the banking reserves in non-USD bonds grow slowly, the risk for the USDollar to be marginalized has increased significantly in the last two to three years. Basically speaking, a fiat currency run by a corrupt, thieving, and dishonorable hegemonic regime for the sole purpose of exploiting the rest of the world cannot stand the test of time, and will be dismantled. The community of nations gathers momentum and organization with producing an alternative. It has taken time, and will require more time. The scenario is indeed possible of a dual universe has been raised, whereby the West continues under the USD-based system, and the East emerges under a new RMB-based system. However, the Eastern alternative is step by step to emerge with a gold foundation. The USDollar cannot compete with Gold in any way except through continued fraud, intimidation, extortion, and open war. All these topics at high level and ground level are covered with analysis in the Hat Trick Letter.
Monday, March 27, 2017
US Dollar Inflection Point / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This is the first of several updates this weekend and I thought I would start with the USD.
This update has four Charts on the USD starting with longer term charts and then moving in for a close up view on the current price action. My first chart is a long term 20 year weekly chart that shows the USD's breakout above the downtrend line from it's last top in 2001. This chart also shows the current uptrend channel out of the 2008 Low (Green and Orange lines).
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Tuesday, March 21, 2017
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
USD futures are still on the move as the dollar declined to a low of 99.59 this morning. We are still looking for the expected master Cycle low, but it is late in coming.
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Friday, March 10, 2017
Monitoring Rising USD Patterns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
As we approach Friday's US jobs report, deemed by some as instrumental in determining the already surging odds of a Fed hike next week (and by others as irrelevant), here are a few USD notes worthy of consideration. The 6-currency basket USDX is entering its 5th straight consecutive weekly gain, the longest string of rallies since the 6-weekly gains seen on Dec 2014-Jan 2015 when the Fed ended QE3. Interestingly, we haven't had many uninterrupted weekly USD gains. Here are the most recent ones.
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Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Trump's Monetary Intervention, A Repeat of the Plaza Accord / Currencies / US Dollar
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- A strong dollar will undermine U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to reduce the United States' trade deficit.
- If the dollar's value continues to rise, Trump may consider unilateral or, failing that, multilateral currency interventions to bring it back down.
- Negotiating a new coordinated monetary intervention in the spirit of the 1985 Plaza Accord will be onerous, however.
Monday, February 27, 2017
US Dollar Rolling Over / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
A close below the 10 DMA on the US Dollar would be the “second step” in the confirmation that its daily cycle is rolling over and starting the next leg down in the intermediate decline. The first confirmation was the initial break of the daily cycle up trend line.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2017
What is Trump's US Dollar Policy? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
The United States Treasury Department has supported a strong dollar policy since its inception in 1789. Period. There were no qualifications or equivocations with that stance, especially since the ascendance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. That's why it was so highly unusual when the newly confirmed Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, uttered this quote recently: "From time to time an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy."
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Monday, February 13, 2017
US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart.
Friday, February 10, 2017
USD and Gold Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Just a quick update on the USD and Gold. Todays move by the USD finally seemed to put a pause in the relentless uptrend by Gold and the Miners. I have the USD on day 6 now in what is very clearly a new short term Trading Cycle.
My cycle analysis indicates that this USD Trading Cycle uptrend should top out sometime in the next two days if it is to be a Left Translated cycle that fails. If it does not, this would be an early warning that the USD may have also found its longer term Intermediate Cycle Low as well.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2017
USD Rolling Over, SPX Weakening / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
USD futures are fading this morning as a smaller overnight retracement failed to exceed yesterday’s high at 100.69.
ZeroHedge reports, “We're going to need another Fed speaker...
Harker comments overnight on March being live spiked the Dollar...
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Wednesday, February 08, 2017
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
John Grandits : A key pillar of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and now policy formation, is an “America First” approach. So far, this has entailed much discussion around negotiating more favorable trade deals, withdrawing from possible participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, citing potential currency manipulators, and construction of a wall along the Mexican border, to name a few.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2017
U.S. Dollar Exorbitant Privilege At Risk?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, American's exorbitant privilege might be at risk with broad implications for the U.S. dollar and investors' portfolios. Let me explain.