Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, August 27, 2017
USD Super Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
My first chart is a 27 year Weekly showing a Fractal comparing the price action we are seeing today against the USD’s last Super Cycle top in 2001. The USD’s Super Cycles last 15 years Low to Low on average and my chart shows the critical role that the 200wma plays in the USD’s Bull and Bear phases.
Clearly, the USD is teetering at critical support right now as my chart shows what happened the last tine in 2002 when it lost this key, long term, moving average. My second weekly chart shows a close up of the current Fractal Blue box in my first chart.
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Thursday, August 24, 2017
New Eastern Energy Cartel Replacement To The Dead Petro-Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Petro-Dollar is dead. It had served so well for over 40 years in maintaining the USDollar as global currency reserve, while keeping tight the controls on geopolitical power. The link between crude oil and the USDollar has been broken, painfully evident since 2016 with a harsh price decline that cannot rise about the $50 level. It remains stuck below that level despite heavy collusion in a demonstration that OPEC is dead defunct also. A void has been created in the energy sector, a most important sector. Enter Russia & China to fill the void. Both the crude oil market and the natural gas market have new alliances which feature nations acting in a cooperative manner. The common element is Russia on the production side, complete with pipeline arrays.
Thursday, August 10, 2017
The Strange Fall of the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the exuberant Trump White House has been mugged by realities, US dollar is plunging to record lows.What a difference a year makes! Last November, US dollar hit its 13-year high. According to the US Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of six other major currencies, the greenback soared to a peak of 103. By early August, US dollar is struggling around less than 93.
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Thursday, August 03, 2017
US Dollar Testing Long Term Support / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Mike Golembesky : The U.S. Dollar has continued to fall hitting a low of 92.72 on Monday, July 31st. The U.S. Dollar also broke through shorter term support levels and is now closing in on long term support that could very well define the longer term trend over the next several years.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
US Dollar - Make Way For Uncle Buck / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day.
USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
The Fed May Influence the Bounce in USD / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD futures remain flat at this time. However, it may have reached its Head & Shoulders target and Master Cycle low today. The Fed action may have some influence on the bounce, since it is ready to do so.
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Monday, July 24, 2017
Last Chance For US Dollar To Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
I think we need to focus on what is happening to the dollar. The intermediate cycle is now 63 weeks long. Clearly that isn’t normal. I’ve maintained for several years that the end game was going to play out in the currency markets. There has to be consequences to printing trillions and trillions of currency units , and leaving interest rates at 0 for 8 years. I don’t think the consequences are going to be deflation. I think the end game will be inflation, just like it was in the 70’s, and just like it was in 2007 and 2008.
It’s taken a while to manifest as other countries have jumped into the game and turned on their printing presses as well, so the collapse in the currency I’ve been looking for has taken quite a while to unfold. The first leg down ended in 2008.
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Thursday, July 20, 2017
The US Dollar Falls To New Lows, And So Do The Excuses To Explain It / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Mike Golembesky writes: The DXY Index, which is widely cited in the financial press as the "Dollar" or "US Dollar," has seen a correction that began in January of this year after topping at the 103.82 level, and has continued into this week's (Tues July 18) low, which came in at 94.48. This represents a move of just under 9%, which in the currency markets is not a small move.
Friday, July 14, 2017
Yellen’s Shocking Announcement:The $USD is TOAST / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Fed Chair Janet Yellen just announced that the Fed will be kicking the $USD off a cliff.
She didn’t use those words, but the words she did use weren’t all that different.
But first a little context…
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Wednesday, July 12, 2017
Down Dollar Down: Time for "UP"? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
Don't rely on after-the-fact headlines. Our charts and forecasts explain how we got here -- and where we're going.
Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Stage Analysis Gold and US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This post will use Weinsteins Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=394282
First lets start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market.
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Tuesday, July 11, 2017
USDJPY Time for a Minor Correction / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: n/a. USD: JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Brainard Speaks.
Wednesday, July 05, 2017
US Dollar Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I just listened to an interview with Martin Armstrong on YouTube about what to expect from the world financial arena. As much as I respect him, I cannot agree with what he says concerning (1) the direction of the US Dollar and (2) its impact on equities. Of course, his research is far deeper than mine, so I defer on that count. However, The best analysis that I have is that the USD may continue to decline (should I say collapse?) in the near term. That does not bode well for either domestic stocks or bonds.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Cycle Status/Outlook: Long term I believe the USD found a 15 Year Super Cycle top in early 2015. To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first chart, a three year weekly that shows Price has dropped below my Blue 2014 uptrend line and now the 30ema is starting to roll over and should start to cap rallies acting as resistance rather than support.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
USD Cycle Status/Outlook: Short term is a bit cloudy but my preferred count is day 10. Longer term, it is clear that the USD is still seeking out its Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). If my last ICL is correct, we are now nearing the 5 month timeframe is a normal 5-6 mont ICL timing band.
Once the YCL is found, my expectations are that future rallies will be still be corrective in nature against the longer term cycle trend which should now be down. Out of the next ICL, the next IC High should be a lower high.
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Sunday, June 25, 2017
Dollar May Become “Local Currency of the U.S.” Only / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear part one of an amazing two-part interview with Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, The New Case for Gold and The Road to Ruin. Jim shares his insights on the Fed’s supposed plan to unwind its balance sheet and what it will mean for the economy and for gold prices. He’ll discuss some potential fireworks involving the U.S. dollar as it continues losing its reserve currency status. Don’t miss a must-hear interview with Jim Rickards, coming up after this week’s market update.
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Friday, June 16, 2017
USDJPY Still Under Pressure / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Franco_Shao
USDJPY stays below the bearish trend line from 111.71 to 110.81 with resistance at around 110.20 on its 4-hour chart, suggesting that the pair remains in bearish movement from the May 11 high of 114.36. As long as the pair is below the trend line, the bearish move could be expected to continue, and next target would be at the April 17 low of 108.13. A breakdown below 108.13 support will indicate that the longer term downtrend from the December 2016 high of 118.66 has resumed, then the pair will find next support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the June 2016 low of 98.97 to 118.66 at around 106.50.
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Thursday, June 15, 2017
The US Dollar Bull Case / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
I see just about everyone has their own theory or trading discipline on where the US dollar is headed next. It’s all these different ideas that make the markets work. Everyone can’t be bullish at the bottom or bearish at the top, it’s just the way it has to be.
For my 2 cents worth I’m still looking at the possible fractal, bullish rising wedge as a halfway pattern to the upside. I did an in depth report on currencies and the US dollar several months ago in which I showed how it could play out. Since that report the US dollar has declined down to the point, where if the fractal is going to work, now is the time for the US dollar to put in its bottom.
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Monday, May 22, 2017
US Dollar 3 Year Cycle Low Charts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The dollar is now 4 days into its final bloodbath phase. This phase usually lasts 5-7 days. We should get a bottom this week.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
I thought I would start off this weekend by recapping one of the most important aspects of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Theory. Very simply put, it is that Longer Cycles almost always dominate the shorter Cycles. This is Huge because if you understand where you are in the Longer Cycles, trading the shorter ones becomes much easier.
Is the USD really topping here? This is an extremely importing Cycle call here because if it is, Gold and the broader Commodity Complex may well be ready to become much more bullish going forward. There is no doubt that the USD has been very bullish since 2014 but this post and related charts will provide you with why a trend change maybe upon us.
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