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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2016

The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 12, 2016

The Yield That Breaks the Trump Rally's Back / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

In 2012 I wrote a book called "The Coming Bond Market Collapse", in that book I predicted that the bond market would begin to collapse by the end of 2016. Clearly, this prediction has started to come true. However, in all candor, I never dreamed that the Ten-year Treasury yield would plummet to 1.3%. Neither did I ever imagine that over thirteen trillion dollars' worth of global sovereign bonds would have a negative yield, as was the case this past summer.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Violent US Bond Market Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

In Elliott wave terms, bond investors have transitioned from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Cracks In US Treasury Bond Market, The Japanese Factor / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Foreign USTreasury Bond dumping continues, and even accelerates. China and the Saudis are selling USTreasurys in a near panic. Foreign central banks liquidated a record $375 billion in USGovt debt in the last 12 months. An American disaster lies in the making from debt saturation, debt overload, and debt dumping. It is all denied by the Washington mouthpieces and the Wall Street handlers, as they lie. The USGovt debt default is within view, dead ahead.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Bonds: 90% of You Are Herding / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

90% (my low-balled estimate) of you, the investing public, are herding when it comes to the bond market.  You may not know it because the overwhelming psychological atmosphere is to reaffirm, not question peoples’ behavior.  That is what herding is; a comforting feeling of going with the flow and being at one with your environment and the greater zeitgeist.

Now, please don’t be offended by the title; you dear reader may well be one of the 10%.  But out there in the financial investment realm, they are herding, BIG time, as bond yields are expected to continue rising, because… media; because“Great Rotation, part 2” and because… the story of epic secular changes and the chance to be early and clued in to a great new market phase are so alluring.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 05, 2016

The Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Savage

Is the bubble in the bond market about to burst? Even a move back to the 38% retracement level over the next several weeks would cause chaos in the global financial markets.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

The US Bond Bear Market Has Begun! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : It’s almost as if I can see the future.

In the September 22 issue of The 10th Man, I went through the math of how people would get screwed in a bond bear market.

I gave some concrete examples of what would happen if rates backed up 100 basis points. And sure enough, since the election, rates have backed up about 40 basis points.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Stock Market New All Tiime Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Stock Market Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story
Chart of the Day

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Did U.S. Treasury Bonds Just Get Stumped by Trump? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The answer to where T-Bonds are headed is not in the news headlines about Trump. It's in the Elliott wave pattern

On November 9, the United States woke to the biggest political shock since Harry Truman defeated "shoe-in" Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 U.S. presidential election.

For U.S. bond investors, the 2016 election has been head-spinning too.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…

Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 24, 2016

Did a Secret Central Banking Cabal Just Turn AGAINST the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Quietly and with little if any notice, foreign Central Banks have begun DUMPING US Debt.

Take a look at this chart. Does this look like a bull market to you? Because to me it looks like it could be the beginning of a panic sale.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

US T-Bill Rejection At Ports In Progress / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

World trade has fallen for the second quarter in a row. The decade of stagnation of industrial production in the United States, Japan, and European Union can be blamed on financial engineering, housing bubbles, war, and recently on destructive monetary policy in QE bond purchase program. It is not stimulus, but rather a destroyer of capital. The West contains several nations with heavy industrial emphasis, hardly advanced economies anymore. They risk a fall into the Third World from a generation of outsourcing, asset bubbles, and financial fraud, as soon as the new currency regime is installed as part of the financial RESET.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

A billionaire says the search for yield is overriding credit judgment

In a world of low and even negative rates, bond investors are so hungry for yield they're willing to accept high levels of risk.

For example, bond investors are increasingly embracing debt instruments known as covenant lite loans, which provide minimal protection should the issuer get into financial trouble.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 03, 2016

An Interest Rate Hike Would Be Ugly for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve taken bond math classes out the wazoo. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that became synonymous with bond trading itself. I was ready to start whipping ‘em around. Pity I ended up in stocks.

Now, the tables have been turned, and I am the old, wizened professor, dropping some knowledge on the younger generation. I occasionally teach finance to MBA students, and there are a couple of chapters on bonds where the students have to get their calculators out.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 07, 2016

How I Got Mark Cuban to Concede That Central Banks Have Cornered the Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Mark Cuban just conceded to me that Central Banks have cornered the bond market.

Cuban is a billionaire investor, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, and reality TV star from Shark Tank.

He’s also begun making a series of strange media appearances in which he claims that if Donald Trump wins the US Presidency in November, “I have no doubt in my mind that the market tanks.”

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 02, 2016

30 Year US Treasury Bonds Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

We are looking for a final top to the massive bond bull market that began in 1981. While it is possible the final top is in place, I am leaning to one final marginal high before everything goes belly up.

Let’s review the quarterly and weekly charts of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond price.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

In 1981, as inflation and Treasury yields were screaming to new heights, my good friend Gary Shilling announced, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” He was right. That bond rally is already 35 years old, and I think it will continue.

Gary also thinks the rally is still underway. He backs up that claim with a compelling case for Treasurys and for the “long bond” (the 30 year).

Gary recalls his famous public debate on stocks versus bonds with Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton, in 2006. This was just before the Great Recession kicked in and sent Treasury prices sky-high. Siegel remarked to the audience, “I don’t know why anyone in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years for a 4.75% yield” (the then-yield on the 30-year Treasury).

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

What You Need to Know If You’re Exposed to Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rodney_Johnson

The housing bust was awful, particularly in Florida and other “sand states.” As the economy slowed, consumers lost their jobs, and when they couldn’t pay their mortgages, they then lost their homes.

Even though that wrenching period happened almost a decade ago, it will live in our memories for years to come. I can recall much of the pain, but also other aspects of the moment. Some people were desperate for the relief that came their way; others were using it as cover to game the system.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 09, 2016

10-Year Treasury Bond At All-Time Low...Explains Stocks Bull Market... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jack_Steiman

We have been going nowhere for a couple of years. Within that process the emotions of all traders were tested over and over. Many times it appeared that the market was about to break down. Action was terrible on price and their oscillators, and that bad action was accompanied by poor economic reports. One after another, they came in poorly. Just when all hope seemed lost for the bulls they'd pull some magic trick, also known as fed-magic dust. A QE program here. A bail out there. Low rates forever everywhere kept the markets from breaking down. It was good to be the fed. You needed a bull to keep the economy going through those 401K reports. It didn't always work though because the market couldn't break out.

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