Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, April 17, 2017
Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.
The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.
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Tuesday, April 04, 2017
All Eyes on US Bond Market Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After the first day of trading of April, a relatively uneventful one for the equity markets in general, the most consequential market for me is 10-year yield!
Yield continues to exhibit weakness, and is bearing down on a critical 5-month support level at 2.30%, which if violated and sustained, will trigger downside continuation signals that project to 2.10% optimally, and possibly to 2.00% prior to the next upmove (in yield).
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
A Damaging Week for U.S. Treasury Yield! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
What a weird and unsettling week. The equity indices for the most preserved their gains, albeit despite Thursday's divergent action, while the bond market went straight up (YIELD straight down), which is the more curious of the major asset class behavior as we head into the weekend...
Technically, the plunge in yield fom 2.46% on Tuesday to 2.30% on Friday (-6.5%) has broken the integrity of the Dec-Feb high-level coil/digestion pattern. It is threatening to morph all of the action since Dec 15 (2.64%) into an intermediate-term top formation that will project weaker yield into the area of the up-sloping 200 day eMA, now at 2.10%
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Tuesday, January 31, 2017
US 10-Year Bond Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10 year U.S. Treasury YIELD argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35 year Bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year Bull Market (dominant uptrend).
From 1981, when 10 year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, un-containable inflation and stagnant growth ("Stagflation") precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-Financial-Crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).
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Wednesday, January 25, 2017
TLT Update…US Bonds and Gold an Odd Couple / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for TLT, 20 year bond etf, which shows it built out a H&S top last summer. That H&S top is a reversal pattern that showed up at the end of its bull market which has been ongoing for many years. There is a big brown shaded support and resistance zone that has been offering support.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.
For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades
Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Sunday, January 08, 2017
China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!
As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.
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Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Trumponomics Won’t Trump the Bond Market Bust / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 26, 2016
Moment of Truth for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
Moment of Truth for Bonds
Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully.
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Saturday, December 24, 2016
A Broken US Bond Market Bounce Beckons! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Historical Correlations Give Us a Clue to What May Be Ahead!
A Falling Global Market Cap Trend Channel
The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend!
We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change.
According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace of dumping has intensified with some $200 billion reduced in just past two months.
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Sunday, December 18, 2016
US Bond Market Implosion Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
The Bond Implosion Continues
Is the bond market implosion the next black swan event that everyone is ignoring?
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Saturday, December 17, 2016
The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!
Monday, December 12, 2016
The Yield That Breaks the Trump Rally's Back / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
In 2012 I wrote a book called "The Coming Bond Market Collapse", in that book I predicted that the bond market would begin to collapse by the end of 2016. Clearly, this prediction has started to come true. However, in all candor, I never dreamed that the Ten-year Treasury yield would plummet to 1.3%. Neither did I ever imagine that over thirteen trillion dollars' worth of global sovereign bonds would have a negative yield, as was the case this past summer.
Thursday, December 08, 2016
Violent US Bond Market Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
In Elliott wave terms, bond investors have transitioned from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Cracks In US Treasury Bond Market, The Japanese Factor / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Foreign USTreasury Bond dumping continues, and even accelerates. China and the Saudis are selling USTreasurys in a near panic. Foreign central banks liquidated a record $375 billion in USGovt debt in the last 12 months. An American disaster lies in the making from debt saturation, debt overload, and debt dumping. It is all denied by the Washington mouthpieces and the Wall Street handlers, as they lie. The USGovt debt default is within view, dead ahead.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Bonds: 90% of You Are Herding / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
90% (my low-balled estimate) of you, the investing public, are herding when it comes to the bond market. You may not know it because the overwhelming psychological atmosphere is to reaffirm, not question peoples’ behavior. That is what herding is; a comforting feeling of going with the flow and being at one with your environment and the greater zeitgeist.
Now, please don’t be offended by the title; you dear reader may well be one of the 10%. But out there in the financial investment realm, they are herding, BIG time, as bond yields are expected to continue rising, because… media; because… “Great Rotation, part 2” and because… the story of epic secular changes and the chance to be early and clued in to a great new market phase are so alluring.
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Monday, December 05, 2016
The Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
Is the bubble in the bond market about to burst? Even a move back to the 38% retracement level over the next several weeks would cause chaos in the global financial markets.
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