After the first day of trading of April, a relatively uneventful one for the equity markets in general, the most consequential market for me is 10-year yield!

Yield continues to exhibit weakness, and is bearing down on a critical 5-month support level at 2.30%, which if violated and sustained, will trigger downside continuation signals that project to 2.10% optimally, and possibly to 2.00% prior to the next upmove (in yield).

The next catalyst for a directional move in bonds and bond yield is Friday's Employment Report, although on Wednesday morning we could get a preview of the jobs report from ADP. If the markets head into Friday's report ominously leaning on, or beneath 2.30%, weak payrolls and/or wage growth figures will have the potential of sending yield considerably lower. This will put increasing pressure on the Trump Administration to put its aggressive growth agenda on the front burner -- and on a high flame!

Otherwise, it may well be that the still-sluggish hard data is starting to undermine very enthusiastic soft (sentiment and confidence) data, which IMHO will impact equities negatively (unless the Fed sends signals that it is willing and able to reverse its "tightening cycle" after moving from near-zero up to near 1% Fed Funds).

This will be positive (obviously) for the bond market, and positive for commodities and precious metals.

All eyes on 2.30% in 10-year yield starting on Wednesday morning, in reaction to the ADP Report, into Friday's Jobs Report.

Have a great trading week!

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of www.MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 15-day Trial!

© 2002-2017 MPTrader.com, an AdviceTrade publication. All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.