Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Are US Treasury Bonds About to Rally or Implode? Part2 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Back in October I wrote a piece, Are US Treasuries About to Rally or Implode? At that time, I noted that the chart for long-term US debt was forming what could have either been a challenge to long-term support, or a potential head and shoulders pattern.
The main idea was that the market was about to tell us whether or not investors considered US Treasuries a safe-haven anymore. If they did, long-term debt would rally. If they didn’t the potential head and shoulders pattern would be confirmed by a break below the “neckline” which would trigger a major sell-off.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds TLT and IEF Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
One month ago, I looked at US Treasury bonds, and I was a bit more constructive than I had been in the prior 12 months. Technically, it had appeared that TLT and IEF had made reversals. So what has happened?
Absolutely nothing! Bonds have yet to get off their back and move higher. On the other hand, they have not moved lower. Do I get any points for that?
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Sunday, February 14, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Auctions on a Trend to Failure? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fresbee
The latest 30 year bond auction have been disappointing with some already terming it as a failure. This is an opportune time to analyse the trends in bond markets. There is almost a pall of gloom across the many who understand bond market mechanics and we will try to break down two of the most important auctions: 30 year and 10 year auctions, to see the trend and patterns in results. Quoting from Reuters on the latest 30 Year auction:
Friday, February 12, 2010
Forget Greece, the US Almost Had a Failed Treasury Bond Auction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
While most of the investment world focuses on the various ”senior officials” (none of whom seem to have actual names or positions) commenting on whether Greece will or will not be bailed out/ receive an emergency loan/ offered moral support, etc, a far more significant debt story is emerging in the US.
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Front-Running the Fed in the Treasury Market, There's No Business Like Bond Business / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Professor_Emeritus
For some nine years I have been predicting that the economy is going to a recession morphing into a depression, using a purely theoretical argument. The essence of my argument is that the open market operations of the Fed cause a protracted decline in interest rates which is responsible for the hard-to-detect capital destruction affecting the financial sector no less than the productive sector. The immediate cause of the depression is the destruction of capital. The ultimate cause is the monetary policy of open market operations. The chain of causation is as follows.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, To Risk Or Not To Risk / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
In many respects the current market environment can be broken down into a very simple construct: to risk or not to risk. To start this week, the risk trade is back on. Risk assets, such as stocks and commodities, are moving higher; safe haven assets, such as bonds and the Dollar, are moving lower. Last week, the risk trade was off. Safe haven assets outperformed as the risky assets went into a swoon.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
U.S. Low Interest Rates Corporate and State Bonds Mad Rush / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Pension plans everywhere are in serious trouble. Pension plans in Wisconsin are about to get in still deeper trouble using leverage.
Inquiring minds note the State of Wisconsin Investment Board Clears Plan to Borrow to Juice Returns. Other states are considering doing the same. Please consider Pensions Look to Leverage Up.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Supported by Strong Seasonal Factors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market remained range bound last week. The New Year started off with a full slate of economic data, but the impact on the longer maturities was minimal. It looks like we have a stalemate between weak fundamentals that are supportive and supply concerns that present a headwind for the market for now. Meanwhile – in spite of the weak fundamentals – the risk trade continues to hum along. The market action on Friday was prime example that at this point one can throw the fundamentals out the window and the best strategy is to just buy anything you can get your dirty paws on.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
The Nine Chinese Men Who Control the Fate of America / Economics / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Nine politicians in China control the fate of the United States of America.
I'm not kidding. The implications are scary. Let me explain...
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Danger of U.S. Treasury Bond Market Collapse 2010! / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Martin_D_Weiss
If you think 2010 is going to bring investors a carefree, nonstop ride to glory, think again!
Profit opportunities abound, and we intend to be among the first to lead you to them.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Why is the U.S. Dollar Rising, Treasury Bond Market Failure 2010? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: G_Abraham
Now am not a trader nor do I rely on charts but those who do, tell me that dollar has broken a “falling wedge” and is all set to rally a great deal in the coming weeks. Most reaserch houses have put in dollar targets of anywhere between 78 and 83.
JP Morgan: 78
Morgan Stanley 82
CLSA 83
GS: They still cant believe dollar is rallying let alone leaving a target.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Morgan Stanley Forecasts 5.5% 10-Year Treasuries, 30 Year Mortgages at 7.5% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits.
Monday, December 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash Not Stocks the Big Story of 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s pretend the US is a company.
For starters, this company has a massive debt problem. The official number is $12 trillion and counting, which is roughly the equivalent of one year’s annual production. On the surface, that’s not TOO bad.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
U.S. Bond Market Holds Bottom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was a touch stronger last week as bonds managed to hold the bottom of the recent range again. The fundamental news was a mixed bag, the FOMC offered no surprises so as a result we had a fairly uneventful week with a narrow trading range heading into the holiday season. The yield curve is not budging from its record steep shape as the Fed made it clear again that they don’t plan to hike their benchmark overnight rate any time soon.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Hit, TBT on Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
We have been discussing for weeks that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is warning us that longer-term rates are heading higher, but we just don’t know exactly which of the many reasons will come to the fore. Today, bonds are getting hit, perhaps because the healthcare bill in all its splendor, expense and unintended consequences looks like a done deal.
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Friday, December 18, 2009
Crumbling U.S. Treasury Bond Market Suggests Spike in Interest Rates 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
The holiday season is here — and in just a couple of weeks, 2009 will fade into the history books. I truly hope that you and your family enjoy these happy times.
But before I sign off for the year, I feel obligated to address one of the biggest threats to your wealth that’s looming in 2010. I’m talking about the very real prospect of “failed” Treasury auctions, plunging bond prices, and a big spike in long-term interest rates.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Interest Rate Yield Curve Steepest Since 1980 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
The bond market is starting to show signs of concern over budget deficits and the corresponding supply of treasuries. Please consider Treasury Yield Curve Steepest Since at Least 1980 After Auction.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Short Treasury Bond TBT ETF on the Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As the market awaits the results of the 30-year bond auction today, let’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is climbing towards a confrontation with the Sep-Dec resistance line, now at 48.25, which if hurdled and sustained should trigger additional strength that tests the prior rally peak at 48.57. The 48.57 level is important technically because if the TBT’s take out that resistance plateau, the Aug-Dec rounded baselike pattern will project an eventual target zone of 53.70-54.20.
Saturday, December 05, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Setting Up for Advance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The 10-Year Treasury Bond yield commanded our attention this past week, and we see it as one of the most important charts entering 2010. Why? Purely from a technical perspective, let's notice that three distinct instances in the past 12 months, yield pressed to 3.50% or lower, only to see an upside reversal back above 3.50% very quickly thereafter. In other words, the "beachball effect" kicks in under 3.50%. With the foregoing as a backdrop, let's also notice that yield has been declining since June even though nonfarm payrolls have been improving.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yield Setting Up for Powerful Advance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The daily chart of the 10-Year T-Bond Futures could be one of the most important charts we discuss entering 2010. Why? Purely from a technical perspective, let’s notice that three distinct instances in the last 12 months YIELD pressed to 3.50% or lower, only to see an upside reversal back above 3.50% very quickly thereafter. In other words, the “beachball effect” kicks in under 3.50%. With the foregoing as a backdrop, let’s also notice that YIELD has been DECLINING since June even though nonfarm payrolls have been improving.
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