Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Treasury Bonds Signal Inflation Pressures Moderating / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
The composite indicator that measures the trends in gold, crude oil, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has moderated significantly. See figure 1 a weekly chart of the S&P500 with the indicator in the lower panel.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Fundamental Backdrop Remains Supportive of Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market crept up toward the middle of the 118 to 124 trading range of recent months as per our advertisement in last week’s issue. 3 month Treasury Bills are back to negative yields again heading into the year end, just like last year. While 3 month Bills are back under 0, the swap market is telling us that sovereign risk is on the increase. Credit Default Swap spreads for most of the largest developed nations (think G7) have widened noticeably over the past few weeks. With the front end literally at 0, it looks like long rates will dictate the shape of the yield curve for the rest of the year.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Are U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Headed Lower? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I am beginning to see signs that there is a high likelihood of this occurring over the next couple of weeks. Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Ultra Short Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (symbol: PST); this is an ETF that corresponds to the inverse of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury index.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Buying Government Bonds is a Mugs Game / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
Suppose that I am thinking about buying a bond and its yield is 3.5 percent. This is a nominal yield before taxes and before accounting for price inflation. To estimate my real return, I need to estimate future price inflation. If, for example, I think that price inflation is going to be 3.0 percent, then I expect my before-tax yield will be only about 0.5 percent.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Municipal Bonds A Dangerous Investment For 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Abraham
Many times just using logic an investor can steer away from problems. It seemed forever municipal bonds were considered one of the safest investments. One did not get rich by investing in municipal bonds however they were consistent and the default possibility was almost not a possibility. Fast forward to 2009 municipal bonds have to be one of the scariest investment choices. All one has to do is to look at State by State finances to be aware.
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Are US Treasuries About to Rally… or Crash? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Historically, because the US was the #1 superpower (and the largest economy in the world), Treasuries have generally held to be one of the very few “risk free” investments on the planet. Consequently, Treasuries are where money runs to hide when the rest of the financial world is in trouble.
You can see this in the below chart: as soon as the Financial Crisis began in earnest with the credit market lockup in July 2007, 30-Yr Treasuries broke above 112: a point of historical resistance. This told us two things:
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Observations / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
The only asset moving up over the last week has been longer term Treasury yields. This is odd especially in the face of equity market weakness and especially since demand for Treasury bonds has outstripped supply over the past year. So why are yields moving up now? Maybe yields are rising in anticipation of buyer fatigue as this week's record bond issuance comes to market.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
U.S. Interest Rates Set to Rocket with Falling Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
See our comparison chart between Cash Dollar Index (DXY) and the Proshares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-bond, ETF (NYSE: TBT), in which I am trying to show that right now the vulnerable juxtaposition of the dollar is creating nervousness among bond traders and investors. Once the bond vigilantes get their meat hooks into the bond market, the Fed will have one heck of a challenge on its hands.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) Breakout / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I last mentioned Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPs in an article written on September 10 entitled, "If You Don't Like 'em, Then Don't Trade 'em". In that article, I discussed the fact that there were other places to look for that "fat pitch" besides U.S. equities. If you didn't like the risk in equities, then play in another sandbox.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
U.S. Treasuries TLT on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As we discussed with subscribers last evening, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) looked like they were in a high-level consolidation ahead of a thrust to the upside, which is exactly what has transpired so far here today, likely in reaction to disappointing data on initial Jobless Claims ahead of tomorrow’s monthly Employment Report.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Are U.S. Treasuries A Bubble Ready To Pop? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
The standard theory is that the price/cost of risk-free long-term debt is a function of (a) the cost of short-term debt plus (b) some function of the market's anticipation of the likely course of inflation or deflation over the term of the debt.
Governments (the Fed) can control short-term rate but they are at the mercy of markets to fix long-term rates. And of course markets are "efficient", unless of course there is a "bubble", when...Err...they are not.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
What the Fed Doesn’t Want You To Know About U.S. Debt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed’s FOMC announcement came out…
We got exactly what I expected, a kind of wishy-washy, “hedging our bets” statement from the Fed. You have to remember that Bernanke was Greenspan’s right hand man for much of the bubble days of the ‘90s and early ‘00s, so the guy is an expert at walking both sides of the line when it comes to policy and public statements.
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Monday, September 21, 2009
Bond Funds Price Change vs Volatility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Stock volatility versus price change gets a lot of financial media attention, but bonds don’t get so much.
Bonds are an important part of portfolios that deserve investigative attention too.
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Friday, September 18, 2009
Jim Cramer Calling For A Top In US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
Jim Cramer is at it again. This time he is calling for a top in US Treasury Bonds. Mama mia, I am heading for the hills. Cramer is calling for higher interest rates, therefore it must be so.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Treasury Bond Market Bullish Sentiment, Circumstances Are Different / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
If you have been paying attention the last couple of weeks, I have been warming up to bonds. However, earlier in the year, I thought that Treasury yields would head higher (i.e., bonds lower), and that this would result in a secular trend change. In other words, we would be embarking on a long period of increasing yield pressures. This did not come to pass although yields on the 10 year Treasury bond did reach 4.0%. Despite this failed signal, Treasury yields still have the technical characteristics of an asset poised to undergo a secular trend change, and by secular, I mean lasting years. But not now.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Are Foreign Purchases of U.S. Treasury Bonds Being Faked? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Washingtons_Blog
Everyone knows that the American government is gaming the market for treasury bonds to some extent.
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Monday, September 14, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Trade Higher on Weak Economy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded mostly positive all week and followed the recent pattern of one ugly Friday alternating with one neutral Friday. This last one actually managed to eke out a small gain. The financial markets are shaping up to be a diverging tale of three themes. On the one hand we have the stock markets around the world relentlessly grinding to new highs, while on the other hand the bond market refuses to buckle as it continues to retain a strong safe haven bid. In the mean time, gold is also breaking out to the upside with some conviction. The yellow metal managed to achieve its highest weekly closing level ever at $1007 per ounce.
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Saturday, September 12, 2009
What Will Happen When Foreign Investors Dump U.S. Treasury Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
Every time I talk about the risk of our foreign creditors selling off their U.S. Treasuries, I hear the same objection: These guys have no place else to put the money! They’ll ALWAYS buy our debt because our bond market is the most liquid, freest place to stash their money.
Friday, September 11, 2009
UK Government Bond, Gilt Market’s Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Macro Trader’s view:
‘The Gilt is a government bond market that is dogged by an unprecedented build of peacetime debt, supported by the Central Bank.’ Discuss.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Move Higher in Spite of Stronger Economic Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded mostly positive all week only to give up most of its weekly advance for second time in the past three Fridays. Ironically, the worst fundamental news was released on Friday in the form of the monthly Employment report (see details in the economic data section below).Read full article... Read full article...