Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Surging Stock Markets Push Bond Yields Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was off slightly last week as a surging stock market knocked yields 3-6 basis points higher for the week. The bond futures traded up to new 18 month highs on Wednesday before settling back a couple of points during the last two trading sessions before the weekend. While stocks and commodities finished a positive week, the bond market continues to scream double dip and deflation. With the 2 year yield just a snick north of one half percent the bond market is starting to tell us that the Fed is increasingly likely to stick with its Zero Interest Rate Policy for the foreseeable future. Until the next wave of credit concerns hits the market, bonds will continue to have a positive fundamental backdrop.
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Thursday, July 22, 2010
Make the Trend Your Friend with Market Bond ETFs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ron_Rowland
Recent economic data is pointing toward a second wave of recession … and maybe even outright deflation. One key consequence: Long-term interest rates are low and getting lower.
Today I’m going to tell you about some exchange traded funds (ETFs) that I think can thrive in this short-term, falling-rate environment. First, let’s take a look at some evidence the economy is entering the dreaded “double-dip” part of the cycle …
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010
China: The US Is "Insolvent and Faces Bankruptcy" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jesse
The common thought amongst even reasonably educated and economically literate Americans is that China is 'stuck with US Treasuries' and has no choice, so it must perform within the status quo and do as the US wishes, or face a ruinous decline in their reserve holdings of US Treasuries.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Fraud and Debt Monetization / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A significant feature of fiat money systems is the privilege for the custodian to commit fraud, big fraud, gargantuan fraud, even counterfeit. Fannie Mae might function as the clearinghouse for numerous massive role programs with $trillion fraud behind each, hidden from view, especially since it was conveniently nationalized. Follow some other fraud schemes, right out in the open. Surely such recount only touches the surface, but these shenanigans are advanced forms of fraud. They are smoking guns of USTreasury fraud and counterfeit, with strong whiffs of monetization. Much more monetization is to come, fully endorsed and sanctioned. Other clever techniques are being used, given the Quantitative Easing has officially been halted.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds and the Fading Economic Recovery / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_North
Some commentators on the U.S. economy and the European economy are predicting that there will be "quantitative easing" soon. This is a euphemism for central bank inflation.
I have been reporting for months that the present policy of the Federal Reserve System is to deflate the money supply. The chart of the adjusted monetary base since early March indicates this. Similarly, consumer prices have remained flat or close to it this year.
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Monday, July 12, 2010
Marc Faber Says U.S. Bonds Worthless Confetti - Video / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Videos
Marc Faber says U.S. bonds worthless confetti, favours gold.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Safe Haven Could Sink / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: This morning I read an interesting story in Soundings magazine. It recounted the final voyage of the S.S. Morro Castle, purportedly one of the safest ships afloat back in 1934 when it regularly transported revelers on junkets between New York and Havana. Then, on the night of September 8, a series of unfortunate events occurred that ended with the ship washing up on the New Jersey shore the next day, close to half of its 300 or so passengers dead.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
The Case For U.S. Treasury Bonds Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
With the economy softening and the Federal Reserve unable to provide a positive catalyst in the form of lower rates, the bond market has taken up of the slack producing lower yields. For example, mortgage rates have dropped over the past month enticing homeowners to refinance. It may not clear the glut of homes on the market or get us back to the old days of your house as an ATM machine, but lower rates do help. This appears to be a trend that will continue especially since Washington and the Fed no longer have the political will to expand the deficit.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
You're Crazy to Hold Government Bonds... Here's a Safer, Growing Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dan Ferris writes: Investors are scared.
During the week of June 23-June 30, the American Association of Individual Investors Survey indicated investors are much more fearful than usual. On average, 31% of individual investors are bearish. These days, 42% of investors are bearish. On average, 39% are bullish. Today, just 25% are bullish.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Municipal Finance Pathologies Come to a Head / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fred_Sheehan
Discussions about municipal finance generally assume three absolute conditions. First, the principal and coupon of municipal bonds are guaranteed: "Municipal bonds don't default," according to trusted experts. Second, the guarantees are backed by the taxing authority of the state or municipality. Third, accrued pension benefits are guaranteed.
Monday, July 05, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Rally on Disturbingly Weak Fundamental Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was stronger again last week as bonds rallied with help from more, persistent disturbingly weak fundamental data and an equity market that is still in search of a bottom.
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Thursday, July 01, 2010
US Treasury Bond Holders Have Nothing to Fear today, Just Look How Low Yields Are! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adrian_Ash
"BOY, the bond vigilantes are really on the warpath," jokes Paul Krugman, noting in his blog at the NY Times that 10-year Treasury yields ended Tuesday below 3.0%.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
Municipal Bonds Crisis, I Get A Pat On the Back From Warren Buffett / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Back in February 2010 ago, I wrote an article titled, The Municipal Bond Crisis is About to Begin. The main points presented in that piece were all based on simple common sense. The were:
- Most state governments are broke or in the process of going broke
- Tax receipts were falling (so less money for state coffers)
- Muni bonds would collapse as governments chose to default rather than honor their payments
Monday, June 28, 2010
Weak Economic Data Sends Treasury Bond Prices Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was stronger last week as bonds rallied with help from disturbingly weak fundamental data and a fading equity market. The final release of the first quarter GDP figure was revised down from the first cut of 3.5% to 3.0% on the second look and finally to 2.7% on last week’s figure. Honestly it is beyond me how consensus can still be looking for 3-4% growth during the second half of 2010 in the US and Canada! From my vantage point we will be lucky to print a positive number by the last quarter on either side of the border. The front end of the economy is in shambles, the Fed is out of easing bullets as it is already at 0% and the newly found fiscal responsibility across the globe is certainly highly advisable but its short term impact will most likely be quite painful.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond TLT ETF Pressuring Resistance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The iShares 20+ Yr T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continues to trade in a high-level coil-type pattern that is putting increasing upward pressure on the 100.00 resistance plateau amidst deteriorating economic data, an uncertain business environment, and defensive equity markets.
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Thursday, June 24, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Look Attractive / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
There are two trades in this market: the risk trade and the non-risk trade. The risk trade is in equities and all the other assets, like commodities, real estate and emerging markets, that have become highly correlated to equities. The non-risk trade is in bonds. This works when equities don't. With the bounce in equities sputtering (but not having rolled over yet), Treasury bonds are looking attractive.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Flat U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was flat and choppy again last week as bonds held their ground even as equities continued to rally. A little less than a month ago we reported that bonds became 2.5 standard deviations expensive to stocks. That is no longer the case as that relationship is closer to neutral now due mostly to the rally in the stock market. The fundamental news remains quite supportive, as most of the data points to non-existent inflation and a slowdown in economic activity.
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Thursday, June 17, 2010
Vanguard 10-Yr U.S. Treasury Yield Interest Rate Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
According to Vanguard projections (made 3/29/10 for, AAII Journal, June 2010, page 7) 10-yr Treasury rates are implied by the current yield curve to be 4.4%, 5.2% and 5.6% by 1 year, 3 years and 5 years into the future. The current rate (June 15) is 3.32%.
They don't do a great job of explaining just how they got to those projections, but given their huge bond asset base, we think they should be presumed to be well qualified to make the projections.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Bond Market Takes a Breather as Yields Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market took a breather last week after signs of exhaustion following a 12 point move during the past 2 months. US bonds remain in decent shape for the time being.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Why U.S. Treasury Bonds Aren't the 'safe haven' Investors Think... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
In the last few weeks, international investors spooked by the budget crisis in Greece and the turmoil in southern Europe have been flocking into the U.S. Treasury bond market as a "safe haven."